... after selling another 25% of his AAPL stake (100 million shares) in Q3, taking his AAPL shares down from 900 million shares at the start of the year to just 300 million.
... amid a record selling spree in which Berkshire has sold shares for 8 consecutive quarters as the world's largest conglomerate goes into full-blown "harvest" mode
The argument made by Trump and challenged by the liberal media, is whether crime has increased under Biden. It has - and very dramatically - according to the DOJ's Bureau of Justice Statistics NCVS annual survey. Here are the facts
First, while the violent crime rate did fluctuate under Trump, it ended 2020 - the year BLM riots sparked calls to defund the police - at 16.4%, the lowest on record. This was unchanged during Biden's first year, then jumped to a 10 year high and pulled back slightly in 2023.
Second, looking only at violent crime that was reported to the police (or where the police picked up the 911 call), we see something curious: not only did the violent crime rate tumble under Trump, but it just hit a 10 year high in 2023, under Biden.
1. This is $1 trillion on a fiscal year basis. On an annualized basis, the US hit $ 1 trillion in interest a year ago. For the full fiscal year which ends Sept 30, total US interest will be over $1.2 trillion.
2. Some have pointed out that Interest on the debt has surpassed defense spending. Actually, it did that over a year ago. As of this moment, interest spending is the 2nd largest US outlay and it will surpass spending on Social Security in early 2025
3. Even if Powell cuts rates to 0 tomorrow (inflation would explode), cash interest expense will keep rising and will peak at $1.4 trillion. If the Fed cuts by "only" 100bps in the next year and keeps rate constant, interest will hit $2 trillion by 2026.
"We’ve found that AI can update historical data in our company models more quickly than doing so manually, but at six times the cost." - Goldman head of global equity research, Jim Covello
"We estimate that the AI infrastructure buildout will cost over $1tn in the next several years alone, which includes spending on data centers, utilities, and applications. So, the crucial question is: What $1tn problem will AI solve? Replacing low-wage jobs with tremendously costly technology is basically the polar opposite of the prior technology transitions I’ve witnessed in my thirty years of closely following the tech industry." - Covello
"people generally substantially overestimate what the technology is capable of today. In our experience, even basic summarization tasks often yield illegible and nonsensical results. This is not a matter of just some tweaks being required here and there; despite its expensive price tag, the technology is nowhere near where it needs to be in order to be useful for even such basic tasks" - Covello
Lots of false guesstimates on CRE market: the facts - size of CRE market is $11 trillion, $4.5 trillion in debt outstanding, banks account for 38% (small banks 28%, large banks 7%). The bulk of small bank deposit growth has gone into CRE
Why are some banks - like JPM - paying 0.01% on deposits? Because they don't need them, because they are still flooded with Fed reserves on which they collect hundreds of millions in interest daily. In fact, JPM is trying to slash its retail deposits which are a cost center
Other banks, mostly small regional banks, have seen their reserve exposure slide thanks to QT, and are increasingly reliant on depositors for funding. 88% of SIVB's total liabilities were deposits. Meanwhile, loan/deposit creation has collapsed due to imminent recession.
Big banks - which are not reliant on depositor funding - are incentivized to spark bank runs which will cripple small/regional banks. It's why JPMorgan was poaching SVB depositors on Thursday (per BBG).