Thread by @nhazony

Israel destroyed Iran's S300 defense systems and can now use long-range bombs to target key leaders in Iran. The failed Iranian assassination attempt on Israel's PM Netanyahu last week sets the stage. Iran’s leader Khomeini is now exposed.

Here’s how it could unfold:
(1/13) 🧵

On Saturday, Israel destroyed the last of Iran’s advanced S300 batteries. These long-range batteries could shoot down aircraft over 80 miles away. Iran is now forced to rely on dozens of medium-range defense systems, including the deadly “Hordad.” (2/13)

The Iranian-developed “Hordad” can shoot down aircraft over 50 miles away. Dozens of "Hordads," along with several other systems, create a 50-mile safe zone around Iran’s sites. But 50 miles of defense is simply not enough. (3/13)

https://x.com/nhazony/status/1843306381463732403

Israeli jets can attack from a distance greater than 50 miles. Israel reportedly uses Boeing-developed SDBs (Small Diameter Bombs,) which spread wings after being dropped and glide up to 70 miles before hitting their target. A single fighter jet can carry 16 SDBs. (4/13)

Israel also recently unveiled aircraft-launched ballistic missiles that can strike at great distances. These are just part of Israel’s known arsenal of long-range munitions that can be dropped well outside the range of Iran’s “Hordad.” (5/13)

This means that every important figure in Iran is now at the mercy of the Israeli Air Force. This is the most immediate implication of Israel’s attack. Iran’s leaders can now be assassinated from the air by the IAF. (6/13)

The same isn't true for Iran’s strategic sites, which are still well protected. Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear sites are heavily fortified and deep underground. Long-range missiles and bombs typically deliver smaller payloads incapable of destroying these sites. (7/13)

To destroy these sites from the air, Israel would need bigger bombs. But big bombs are typically limited in range. To drop them, Israel’s jets would likely need to fly closer to Iran’s strategic sites, where they can still be shot down by the “Hordad.” (8/13)

In the next attack, Israel can destroy Iran's remaining defenses using similar tactics to those used against the S300. The many explosions in the skies of Teheran on Saturday indicate that Iran’s defenses faced hundreds of flying objects during this attack. (9/13)

Flooding the skies with hundreds of bombs and confusing their radars with electronic and cyber warfare meant that Iran’s S300 operators were too busy shooting down irrelevant targets while Israel’s bombs quietly headed their way. (10/13)

Multiple news outlets reported that Israel’s Air Force used the airspace of Syria and Iraq to arrive in Iran. But Iran spent decades placing air defense batteries and radars in Iraq and Syria to serve as a first line of defense against an Israeli attack. (11/13)

Israel’s 140+ fighter jets, air refuelers, and intelligence aircraft reportedly used in this mission couldn’t simply fly through Syria without incurring losses. So they paved the way, destroying every Iranian obstacle to build a “highway” to Teheran. (12/13)

A few hours ago, Israel’s leader Netanyahu vowed to destroy Iran’s nuclear reactors. Israel can now access Iran from multiple routes and has shown it can completely dismantle Iran’s remaining defenses. When will Israel finish the job? (13/13)

*Khamenei, not Khomeini, of course.