Thread by @admcrlsn

We had a flurry of new polls in PA today that net out to an effective tie.

Those who know me well know I’m not much of an optimist.

But gather ‘round the campfire. Let me explain why I’m bullish on Harris in PA — and it has nothing to do with polls or early/mail voting.

🧵

Let’s start with what happened in 2020.

In its highest turnout election since 1992 (76.5%) — due largely to COVID/mail voting — Biden beat Trump by 1.2 points (50.0 - 48.8), or 80,555 votes.

He racked up huge margins in Philly and its suburbs & Allegheny (home to Pittsburgh).

From 2016 to 2020, Philly actually shifted right by 4 pts.

This was due mostly to Latino-heavy — predominantly Puerto Rican — neighborhoods (mostly in North Philly) shifting right, costing him ~10K votes

This was a trend that we saw in nearly every major city across the country

Biden won about 95% of Black voters in Philly (slight right shift from 2016) but turnout dropped 20%, costing him ~5,000 votes — another common theme across areas with large urban Black populations across the country.

Biden put up some of his best numbers in the growing, highly educated, blue-trending Philadelphia suburbs in the southeast corner of the state — or as local politicos call it, SEPA.

He also improved upon Clinton’s performance in northeast PA and Allegheny County (home to Pitt).

Trump dominated in the rural parts of the state, but his margins were somewhat muted there by a lot of of those areas having small college towns/urban centers.

And he didn’t improve much on his 2016 performance in those counties (held steady/slightly regressed in many).

Ok enough history. Let’s talk about 2024.

Southeast PA (Philly suburbs) will likely keep growing in vote share & keep trending left

The exurbs will continue to shift right, but they are less populous, and unlikely to offset those losses in SEPA.

I wouldn’t be surprised if rural turnout was high, but in 2020 Trump likely squeezed most of what he could get out of those areas, unless he starts making inroads into those college towns/small urban centers — which would be something of a realignment.

I know I said I wouldn’t talk about polls, but one exception — the district polling we have shows Harris slightly improving/holding steady w/ Biden in rural counties like Carbon in northeast PA. TBD on if it's true, but there's nothing super alarming about a big rural backslide.

So how does Trump make the math work? The answer is probably a combo of:

- Exurbs/rurals have disproportionately high turnout & shift right

AND

- Trump makes sizable gains among POC voters in Philly & Latino-heavy areas like Allentown (tougher after Puerto-Rico-garbage-gate)

But the way I see it, there are four possible outcomes, and Trump loses in three of them:

depolarization in Philly and

The way I see it, there are four scenarios, and Trump loses in three of them.

1) 2024 looks a whole lot like 2020 in terms of turnout and vote share by region. Trump likely loses.

2) Trump nets a bit more votes in the exurbs/rurals, but it’s canceled out by leftward shifts in suburban leftward shifts (especially SEPA). Trump likely loses.

3) Exurbs/rurals stay static, suburbs shift left. He loses by more than he did in 2020. Trump likely loses.

4) Exurbs/rurals shift right and some racial depolarization happens + suburbs stay stagnant or slightly erodes. Trump likely wins.

In other words, given the political geography and demography of the state, Trump needs a lot to go right for him for carry Pennsylvania

He can absolutely win it, but based on the fundamentals I outlined above — polling & early voting notwithstanding — I’d rather be Harris there

Yikes, missed this in the copy editing.

Forgive me.

But wait, there’s more!

Based on some back-of-the-napkin math — based on minor party polling & past underperformance — Trump (or Harris) will need a minimum of ~49.6% of the vote in PA to win.

Trump did not crack 49% in 2020 or 2016, and he’s catering mostly to his own base.

And in a razor thin election, ground game matters.

There are no real hard metrics on that, but folks that I trust on both sides to speak candidly tell me Harris’ ground game/voter turnout operation is much stronger than Trump’s.

And we’re well past the point of ad saturation.

As always, a huge thank you to The Keystone Whisperer @blockedfreq for gutting checking all this to make sure I didn’t sound like a complete idiot.