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Aaron Astor Profile picture
@AstorAaron
Oct 31 • 7 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Something odd in that Fox News PA poll. The 2-way LV screen has Trump up 50-49. It has Trump winning whites just 52-48 and Harris winning non-whites 72-28. In 2020, whites were 81% of the PA electorate. If that were the case in 2024, this should be Harris up 52.5 to 47.4. Image
In order to get to a Trump lead of 50-49, the LV sample would have to be 93% white instead of 81% white.
In 2020, Trump won PA whites by 57-42, so if he's winning whites by just 52-48, he's in very big trouble. Strange, then, that they would list the white vote at 52-48 and then show Trump winning overall 50-49...even without a massive non-white gain. So, where ARE the non-whites???
Note that I am not questioning whether the cross-tabs themselves are wrong. That's usually a bad idea bc of high MOE. I'm merely computing the total based on the crosstabs and there are presumably only two race categories here - white and non-white. So...what is going on here?
FWIW, the gender crosstabs add up perfectly to the reported result here based on 2020 exits. So the crosstabs should actually add up. Is there a third category that is neither "white" nor "non-white"? Either way, 48% of whites for Harris is a clear Harris win in PA.
The RV screen, which has Harris up 50-48, only works if you have an 88% white electorate. So it's not just about going from RV to LV. It's like they just didn't trust their numbers and then fudged them to a racial demographic that looks more like Maine or West Virginia than PA. Image
The Fox News Poll is a good poll done with a combo of a GOP and Dem pollsters. It just looks like they picked a top line (herded to others) and then worked backward, presumably out of fear they would undercount Trump voters again. But that means they aren't trusting their data.

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More from @AstorAaron

Aaron Astor Profile picture
Oct 22
Interesting tidbit from this NYS-Siena poll. New York Jewish voters in Siena's February 2024 NYS poll actually favored Trump over Biden, 53-44. Today, NY Jewish voters choose Harris over Trump 59-39. High margin of error for this sub-sample but that's a major shift. Image
Image
Here are the crosstabs from Siena's February 2024 poll. Catholic voters are about the same in Feb as today at Trump +4. Protestants shifted to the Dem (+6 to +14). But the Jewish vote shifted from Trump +9 to Harris +20. Image
The more significant Siena result is their poll of two Long Island Congressional races. In both cases, they show Long Island heading back toward 2020 numbers and not 2022 numbers. Could be the difference maker for the House.
Read 4 tweets
Aaron Astor Profile picture
Oct 14
Some thoughts on this internal GOP Senate polling memo:
1) It's an actual polling memo with internal polls and results for Senate and Pres across several states - with pollster names listed. It's not a rumor of who is "underwater" or vibe gossip.

politico.com/news/2024/10/1…
2) I don't know why somebody leaked it to Politico. Could be a donor who wanted to bring attention to some races - and which to abandon. Here is the link to the pdf of it. static.politico.com/79/e9/eaf70108…
3) Perhaps most importantly, it shows that the Presidential race really is there for the taking by Harris - as long as her ground game is robust. Tied in Arizona. Down only 4 in Ohio? Down 5 in Texas. PA is a 1 pt Harris lead. MI she is +2. Only downer is WI, but just down 1.
Read 6 tweets
Aaron Astor Profile picture
Sep 15
This is apparently the gunman arrested today. His politics are…weird.
He’s a Vivek supporter? WTF? A reminder that the craziest people in America don’t fall along the typical left-right, Dem/GOP spectrum.
He runs a series of Tweets alongside the latest conflict in the world. From February to April 2022 he claimed to have landed in Ukraine and wanted help to do...something there. In 2021 he was fighting for Belarus. In 2023 for Taiwan. He's a one man Foreign Legion!
Read 6 tweets
Aaron Astor Profile picture
Mar 2
Just curious but what is the typical percentage of a Presidential election that did not vote in the prior Presidential election? 2020 was the highest turnout in a century, BTW. This NYT poll suggests that 17% of 2024 voters didn't vote at all in 2020. Is that...high? Image
Look in the right-most column for "did not vote in 2020".
On the flip side, the recalled 2020 vote is much more pro-Biden than it actually was. So maybe they tried to correct for that in weighting? I don't know. I know that recalled vote preference is often wrong, but I'm not sure about recalling whether you voted at all is wrong.
Read 4 tweets
Aaron Astor Profile picture
Dec 28, 2023
A sudden reminder that the Republican Party was actually founded under an oak tree in Jackson, Michigan or at a little schoolhouse in Ripon, Wisconsin or at a thousand "Anti-Nebraska" meetings in the Spring of 1854. Some in places like Berlin, New Hampshire.
They were former Whigs, former Democrats and former Liberty party people who agreed on one thing: slavery shall not extend any further. They organized against what they called "The Slave Power," which controlled the Democratic Party (thanks partly to a 2/3 nominating rule).
In defense of slavery, first and foremost, was South Carolina. From Pierce Butler to Robert Hayne to John C. Calhoun to George McDuffie to Robert Barnwell Rhett, South Carolina's leaders made clear that a threat to the future of slavery meant the Union shall be dissolved.
Read 10 tweets
Aaron Astor Profile picture
Nov 5, 2023
This is the biggest problem with a lot of the discourse around any one state plan in Israel-Palestine. Does the acceptable plan in the West - secular, binational, robust civil rights for all - have sizable support among either Israelis or Palestinians?
Personally, I could accept this as much as I can a true two-state solution. But how many Palestinians want this? How many Israelis? As mangled and flawed as the Oslo plan was, there are still more people who support THAT in I-P than the Western-style secular lib/dem one state.
One argument is that the current leadership on both sides is adamantly opposed to this - or a two-state solution - but that maybe after the war, both extremes will be jettisoned and a "silent majority" of moderates will push a singular secular, binational, liberal state. Will it?
Read 5 tweets

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