Dan Neidle Profile picture
Oct 31, 2024 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
The Country Land and Business Association says the new £1m cap on agricultural inheritance tax relief will "harm 70,000 farms". That's 1/3 of all farms.

What does the actual data show? Less than 500 farms/year will be pay more tax as a result of this change every year. Possibly as few as 100.Image
Why 500? Because this table shows only 500 farm estates claimed agricultural property relief (APR) of more than £1m in 2022. Image
But that overstates the issue. Married couples can easily claim the £1m cap twice. Small farmers without other assets can use their nil rate band. So for a married couple running a farm, it could be worth £2.65m before the restriction on the relief costs them a penny.
That could mean as few as 100 farms per year are affected. And the 20% tax is only on the excess over the threshold, so for most of the 100, the additional tax will be reasonably small. Insure against it when you're young(ish). Give some/all to your kids when you get older.
And the data shows that most of the cost of the tax increase will be borne by a few very large estates. In 2022 2% of agricultural estates - just 37 - claimed an average of £6m.

That's what this is really about - not 70,000 farms. So let's drop the hyperbolic fake stats. Image
@bea_johanssen @triplesilk @melindiscott There are other valuation points here too - average price per acre may not reflect the price of a large estate; the IHT changes may themselves reduce value; etc 2/2

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More from @DanNeidle

Feb 5
Mandelson's firm, General Counsel, covered-up Mandelson's relationship with Epstein.

Here's Global Counsel's CEO and co-founder, preparing to tell the press that Mandelson barely knew Jeffrey Epstein.

Who did he check that line with?

Jeffrey Epstein. Image
They're responding to this Telegraph story, the previous day, revealing that Epstein planned to meet a British Government Minister in New York on the weekend of 12/13 December 2009. Image
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The Telegraph had picked up on a 2009 court application by Epstein to be released from house arrest so he could meet a senior British government figure in New York. Image
Read 9 tweets
Feb 4
Peter Mandelson is telling the truth on one thing: the idea he was bought for a $4k “bursary” or a $75k gift is ridiculous

The real incentive was a post-government payday - one so big he *rejected* a $3–5m-a-year offer

And Epstein enabled that payday

Here’s the evidence. 🧵 Image
The timeline is damning.

While still in office, Mandelson was warned by JPM’s Jes Staley (via Epstein) that sticking with Gordon Brown would be "bad form commercially".

Translation: It would hurt his future earning potential.

He got the message. Image
Just 48 hours after the government fell in May 2010, the "commercial" phase began.

Epstein immediately began brokering a role for Mandelson at Deutsche Bank.

("Petie" being Epstein's affectionate name for Mandelson) Image
Read 16 tweets
Feb 3
Epstein made $10k+ payments to Mandelson's partner around the time of the email leaks.

Mandelson says he thought the payments were bursaries from an educational foundation.

We're not allowed to say famous people are lying. But is Mandelson lying?

A 🧵 on the evidence: Image
The offer to help came from Epstein alone. No mention of a foundation/bursary. Image
Mandelson's partner sends payment details to Epstein personally. No sign of any foundation being involved. Image
Read 11 tweets
Feb 2
There's more.

On 31 March 2010, Lord Mandelson's principal private secretary sent him a note of a meeting between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and Larry Summers, US Treasury Secretary.

Lord Mandelson forwarded it to Jeffrey Epstein five minutes later. Image
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This was a pretty detailed discussion. Epstein responded with suggestions as to how hedge funds should be taxed, and then detailed questions about the drafting of the new US rules ("may" vs "shall).
The next day, Lord Mandelson met Larry Summers himself.

Lord Mandelson's private secretary sent a note of the meeting to him at 1.22pm. Within two minutes, Lord Mandelson forwarded it to Jeffrey Epstein. Image
Read 7 tweets
Feb 2
Who leaked this Number 10 discussion to Jeffrey Epstein? And are there consequences for the leaker?

It’s an internal discussion re. getting markets moving in the aftermath of the financial crisis. No doubt of great interest to Epstein and his financial market clients. Image
The name of the leaker is redacted. Could be any of Vadera, Pond, Heywood, Mandelson, or anyone they forwarded the email to.

I guess we'll never know the leaker's identity.
On a completely different subject, here's Peter Mandelson (a few months later) leaking an unrelated policy discussion to Jeffrey Epstein. Image
Read 13 tweets
Feb 1
New Epstein emails show Peter Mandelson secretly advising JPMorgan’s CEO on how to fight Labour’s 2009 bankers’ bonus tax - even suggesting he “mildly threaten” the Chancellor.

Mandelson was Business Secretary at the time.

A year later, he was seeking work with JPM. Image
On 9 December 2009, Alistair Darling - then the Chancellor of the Exchequer - announced a one-off 50% tax on bankers’ bonuses. Image
On 15 December, Jeffrey Epstein asked Lord Mandelson if the tax could be amended so it applied only to cash bonuses (not the, much more valuable, non-cash elements such as share options).

Mandelson said that he was trying hard to amend the tax. Image
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Read 9 tweets

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