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Crémieux Profile picture
@cremieuxrecueil
Nov 1, 2024 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Among health "experts" who tweeted about Monkeypox, there was a dramatic tendency to get basic facts wrong.

For example, many claimed risk wasn't especially heightened among gay men.

PhDs were among the worst misinformation spreaders. Image
Being an "expert", being "credentialed", having "studied" something and so on, is not sufficient to make someone truly credible, to endow their words with reliability.

Being right is, and most popular "experts" were usually not right.
Source: doi.org/10.1101/2023.0…

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Crémieux Profile picture
Nov 20
Why?

I doubt the answer is weight loss. Consider 2 other drugs for diabetes: DPP-4 and SGLT-2 inhibitors

GLP-1RAs are associated with less Alzheimer's vs. DPP-4is:

But not SGLT-2is:

Neither generates much weight loss, but SGLT-2is match GLP-1RAs on glycemic benefitsImage
Image
So, at least in this propensity score- or age-matched data, there's no reason to chalk the benefit up to the weight loss effects.

This is a hint though, not definitive. Another hint is that benefits were observed in short trials, meaning likely before significant weight loss.
We can be doubly certain about that last hint because diabetics tend to lose less weight than non-diabetics, and all of the observed benefit has so far been observed in diabetic cohorts, not non-diabetic ones (though those directionally show benefits).

Anyway, trials needed!
Read 4 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Nov 20
El Salvador is now a safe country

The reason why should teach us something about commitment

The government there has previously attempted crackdowns twice in the form of mano dura—hard hand—, but they failed because they didn't hit criminals hard enough

Then Bukele really didImage
In fact, previous attempts backfired compared to periods in which the government made truces with the gangs.

The government cracking down a little bit actually appeared to make gangs angrier!

You'd have been in your right to conclude 'tough on crime fails', but you'd be wrong.
You have to *actually* enforce the law or policy won't work. Same story with three-strike laws, or any other measure

Incidentally, when did the gang problems begin for El Salvador? When the U.S. exported gang members to it

This was bad for El Salvador:

Read 5 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Nov 18
Diets that restrict carbohydrate consumption lead to improved blood sugar and insulin levels, as well as reduced insulin resistance.

Additionally, they're good or neutral for the liver and kidneys, and they don't affect the metabolic rate. Image
Carbohydrate isn't the only thing that affects glycemic parameters.

So does fat!

So, for example, if you replace 5% of dietary calories from saturated fat with PUFA, that somewhat improves fasting glucose levels (shown), and directionally improves fasting insulin: Image
Dietary composition may not be useful for improving the rate of weight loss ceteris paribus, but it can definitely make it easier given what else it changes.

Those non-metabolism details may be why so many people find low-carb diets so easy!

Read 4 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Nov 18
Property taxes should, in theory, make it so buying a home is more affordable and young people will have increased access to home ownership.

Let's look through the literature to see what really happens🧵

Firstly, higher property taxes get older people to move. Image
Higher property taxes act as leverage since they're capitalized into house prices.

This reduces the number of people who own multiple homes, increases general ownership, and increases young ownership even more. Image
Property tax exemptions are popular because the old feel like they shouldn't have to pay anything to live in their homes.

Exemptions shift homeownership to older ages and make America less mobile because people live in their homes for longer. Image
Read 11 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Nov 18
There's a popular belief that family wealth is gone in three generations.

The first earns it, the second stewards it, and the third spends it away: from shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations!

But how true is this belief?

Gregory Clark has new evidence🧵 Image
The first thing to note is that family wealth is correlated across many generations. For example, in medieval England, this is how wealth at death correlates across six generations.

It correlates substantially enough to persist for twelve generations at observed rates of decay: Image
But why?

The dominant theory among laypeople is social: that the wealth is directly transmitted.

This is testable, and the Malthusian era provides us with lots of data for testing. Image
Read 19 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Nov 18
The Catholic Church helped to modernize the West due to its ban on cousin marriage and its disdain for adoption, but also by way of its opposition to polygyny.

The origin of this disdain arguably lies with Church Fathers like Justin Martyr, Irenaeus, and Tertullian🧵 Image
Justin Martyr, in his Dialogue with Trypho argues with a Jew that Christians are the ones living in continuity with God's true intentions.

Justin sees Genesis 2 ("the two shall become one flesh") as normative.

In his apologetic world, Christians are supposed to transcend lust.Image
Irenaeus, in Against Heresies, is attacking Gnostics (Basilides, Carpocrates), whose sexual practices he finds scandalous.

To him, "temperance dwells, self-restraint is practiced, monogamy is observed"—polygyny is a doctrinal and moral deviation from creation affirmation.Image
Read 16 tweets

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