The participation of North Korean units on the Ukrainian front will not bring about major changes and they will probably suffer major losses, said Colonel Ants Kiviselg, commander of the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center. However, in the Donetsk region,
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Russian armed forces still hold the initiative and have forced the Ukrainian armed forces to gradually retreat, he added. "Unfortunately, there is nothing positive from the Ukrainian front line this week. The Russian Armed Forces still hold the initiative along the entire
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front line, which has forced the Ukrainian armed forces to gradually retreat," Kiviselg said at a Defense Ministry press conference. According to him, the average number of attacks per day remained at the same level as in previous weeks, i.e. about 167 attacks per day.
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"The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are capable of capturing most of the territories in the Donetsk region, primarily in the areas of Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Vuhledar and Velyka Novosilka. Over the past week, the Russian Federation has occupied an additional 150 square
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kilometers of territory in these regions," Kiviselg said. "In addition, there are signs that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are preparing assault strikes in the area of the Zaporizhzhia region. It is likely that the already known to us 76th Airborne Division
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with a permanent deployment location in Pskov, Then the goal will be to capture new territories, as well as additional involvement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this region," Kiviselg said. "To summarize, it can be said that alarming events continue to occur in the
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Donetsk region and the Donetsk region. It is possible that the Russian Armed Forces will achieve a local breakthrough in the Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo or Vuhledar areas this year," he added. The Russian army has asked to extend the deadline for taking Kursk. Speaking about
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the arrival of North Korean soldiers at the front, Kiviselg said that according to Ukraine, 3,000 soldiers of the 11th Army Corps of the North Korean Armed Forces, including several hundred servicemen of the North Korean special forces, have arrived in the Kursk region.
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"These servicemen probably arrived on the territory of the Russian Federation in early October, where they underwent preliminary training in the Eastern Military District, which lasted approximately two to four weeks, after which they were sent to the Ukrainian front,"
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Kiviselg said. "In total, North Korea had to allow the Russian Federation to send from 10 to 12 thousand soldiers, including 500 officers and three generals. Probably, the arrival of North Korean soldiers to the Ukrainian front will take place in stages. "The arrival of
the
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next North Korean units on the Ukrainian front will take place in the coming weeks," Kiviselg said. Kiviselg said that, as a rule, North Korean soldiers are trained for combat in mountainous terrain, which means that the territory of Ukraine, its climate and geography are
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unknown to them. "And therefore, their training does not actually require combat in such areas. The training they receive in the Russian Federation is certainly not very good. "Therefore, we can expect that North Korean units will suffer heavy losses in Ukraine, and
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presumably even heavier losses than the armed forces have suffered in the Russian Federation so far," Kiviselg said. Despite this, Kiviselg believes that it is possible that North Korea will continue to send units to Russia and the Ukrainian front. "Despite this, the
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intelligence center's assessment is still that this sending of North Korean units to the Ukrainian front will not bring about major changes at the moment. But if this kind of additional sending of units to Russia, their training, and then their arrival at
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the Ukrainian front continues for a long time, then this could certainly bring about certain changes on the front line," Kiviselg said.
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The Russian economy is losing momentum. Sberbank chief German Gref warned that the country is entering a period of serious challenges. Speaking at the bank’s annual shareholders’ meeting, Gref pointed to military spending, inflation, and high interest rates as key factors
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that will continue to weigh on the economy through 2026. He noted that loan quality is declining, and more individuals and businesses are seeking to restructure their debts. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that senior bank executives see the risk of a banking crisis within
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the next 12 months. Unpaid loans are quietly piling up, though this has yet to show in official figures. The agency estimates that bad loans could hit 3.7 trillion rubles — about 20% of the banking sector’s capital. Much of this traces back to the war. Many soldiers received
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According to BILD, "Russia is expected to emerge stronger after the war in Ukraine, and the Kremlin is actively preparing for a potential invasion of NATO countries." While the Russian threat remains real, and it must not be dismissed — and we must indeed prepare for it — at
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this stage, nearly all statements about a potential Russian attack on NATO countries are nothing more than attempts to divert NATO’s attention and resources away from the war in Ukraine. Let’s look at the facts. The so-called “grand” summer offensive in the Sumy region
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stalled after just a month. Russia gathered 50,000 troops, but it has no more equipment. Its reserves are nearly depleted, while Ukraine’s arsenal is expanding — its range of weapons is growing, and its capabilities are increasing despite all the challenges with manpower.
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Ultimately, the main achievement of both Putin and Trump is that NATO has now committed to increasing annual defense spending to at least 5% of GDP by no later than 2035 — a level unseen since the Cold War. Previously, the target was just 2%. Some countries, like Estonia, 1/7
are already set to reach this threshold as early as next year. Spain opposed the move, but it is geographically the farthest from the main threat — Russia. At least, that’s how it seems to them. But one should not forget that Russia’s core strategy revolves around hybrid 2/7
threats, which have no borders. For major European countries — France, Germany, and others — the decisive factor was pressure from Trump. The war in Ukraine, ongoing since 2014, had not pushed Europe toward a more serious approach to security. While the Baltic states, Poland, 3/7
NATO suggests that Russia can sustain the war at its current pace until 2027. Of course, I may be accused of being sympathetic to Ukraine and having a biased opinion, but let’s look at the facts—what’s wrong with this statement? The Russian war machine currently relies on
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Soviet-era equipment reserves, a large number of soldiers, and the National Wealth Fund. Let’s start with the first point. Soviet equipment reserves are almost completely depleted. The offensive on Sumy is carried out mainly through infantry assaults, and the amount of
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destroyed Russian equipment in recent weeks is two to three times lower than during the same period in previous years. If Russia continues the war at the same pace, by 2027 almost all of its equipment will be gone—perhaps even the few donkeys they have. As for soldiers,
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The appointment of Robert Brovdi, known by his call sign "Madyar," as head of the Unmanned Systems Forces of Ukraine has already yielded noticeable results, according to Russian military bloggers. They report that Ukrainian drone strikes are now primarily aimed at eliminating
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Russian UAV operators. Madyar has openly declared his goal of building a "drone wall" along the entire front line and destroying up to 35,000 Russian soldiers per month—the estimated number that the Russian army can mobilize on a monthly basis. He advocates for establishing
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dedicated UAV units for each section of the front line, with operators who are intimately familiar with their own sector, rather than deploying UAV teams as a mobile reserve shuffled between hotspots. His concept is to create a continuous "kill zone" across the whole
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The war in Iran benefits Russia in the short term, but in the long run, the loss of Iran would be a major defeat for Moscow in the region, further weakening its already diminished position in the Middle East. The fall of Syria has significantly undermined Russia’s influence
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there, and Iran remains its last major ally in the region. Russia is trying to squeeze every possible advantage out of this unfavorable situation. The war in Iran distracts the West and its allies from the conflict in Ukraine, but the main gain for Russia is the rise in oil
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prices. Russia’s 2025 budget is under enormous strain because it was planned based on an oil price of $80 per barrel. However, since the summer of 2024, oil prices have been steadily falling, reaching around $50 per barrel for Urals crude in the spring of 2025. The war in
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