Thread by @clement_molin

Kurakhove before 2025

Its been a few weeks Russia 🇷🇺 launched big offensives to take controll of the strategic town of Kurakhove 🇺🇦.

At the same time, Russia will try to achieve sucess on the axis south of Pokrovsk before the battle for the city

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Since Vuhledar -the main ukrainian stronghold in south Dontesk- fell in late september, russian forces havn't been stopped.

They captured 6 towns north east of Vuhledar (Prechystivka, Zolota Nyvca, Shakhtarske, Novoukrainka, Yasna Polyana, Bohoiavlenka and Maksymivka).

At the same time, ukrainian forces lost a few towns north of the Vovotcha lake, thus allowing russian army to threathen Kourakhove from the north and the west.

They took Ukrainsk, then Tsukuryne and finally Selydove, before entering Hirynk and Kurakhivka without much resistance.

Paradoxically the Pokrovsk city front havn't moved for nearly 3 months.

You can see here that russian artillery and air-strikes on the Myrnohrad direction has been increasing. The 3rd defensive line is still holding.

But why and how did they (🇺🇦) managed to stop the russians 8km from Pokrovsk ?

Firstly, we have to understand russian army concentrated their attacks southward, where the defensive lines were less powerful and less manned.

Secondly, the third line of defense was very solid and the ditches avoided mass tanks/BMPs assaults to Pokrovsk.

These 3 months gave time to prepare new defenses around Pokrovsk. 4th line and 5th lines are now being reinforced.

Thirdly, ukrainian forces managed to keep their positions on the only place where Russia could have advanced, the railway. They even counter-attacked.

These 3 reasons protected Pokrovsk, but on the other hand, condemned Kourakhove.

The situation of ukrainian controlled Donbass is not catastrophic.

In the north, Siversk is still holding despite numerous assaults, then russian army still have difficulties to advance to Tchasiv Yar. The town of Klishchiivka, south of Bakhmout, is still holding.

In Toretsk, ukrainian forces continue local counter-attacks, while the situation on the Pokrovsk-Niu York front is calm.

What's happening elsewhere is nothing compared to the critical situation of Kourakhove.

Since a few days, 79th air assault brigade is trying to push back russian assaults on the Novomykhailivka-Kostantynopil valley.

They are doing wuite well, today, they destroyed MRAP, MTLB and T-55, some quite surprising vehicles to assault positions...

Based on @UAControlMap data, this is how the frontline is manned.

79th, 33rd and 46th are destroying numerous russian assaults while 128th, 123rd and 113th are not doing great.

Russia is still sustaining losses on the eastern approch of Kourakhove. Here are some pictures from @OSINTua.

However, if Kourakhove city is still very well defened, its flanks may force the ukrainian to flee the city before the end of the month.

Here, seen today, russian columns assaults Novooleksiivka, west of Selydove. This is whats happening daily.

Since I'm following the ukrainian defensive program, here are the last defensive lines.

The Slovianka-Mezhova line is now finished, there is now trench work near Pavlohrad in Dnipropetrovsk oblast and new ditches south of Pokrovsk.

I already said that, but fortifications are very important to stop and assault. Ukraine should focus now on building a solid line on the Solena-Mokri Yali line, between Velika Novosilka and Novopavlivka...

What will happen in the next weeks ?

It is not difficult to understand the path russian army will follow. It is more difficult to predict where it will be stop, if their will be reinforcments and how solid will the next lines be.

In red, this is what I believe they will try to achieve before 2025, with eventually the orange lines. This could happen in a month or two.

Then it will probably be the pink offensive, to the 2 rivers, I don't know yet when they will achieve this (maybe february ?)

And after that, they may try to focus north to take Pokrovsk. At the same time, they will prepare for the north-Donbass offensive to claim the complete capture of Donbass in 2025.

We are not here yet !

I'll continue to monitor the situation in Kurakhove in the next days, but without forgetting other directions, such as what's happening in Kursk or in Kupiansk.

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