Ok, it's time for the thing that at least two people have been waiting for. Time for my final outlook on the race as I see it. Because I'm a data geek, I'm actually going to play out two scenarios. a π§΅
I have two scenarios because I think there's a real possibility of a /1
I have two scenarios because I think there's a real possibility of a /1
specific thing happening. But we'll start with the first scenario:
PRESIDENT: based on current trends and the raw data that I have seen, I think the Vice President wins by between 5-9 points, the most likely outcome being a popular vote victory of 7 points 52-45 /2
PRESIDENT: based on current trends and the raw data that I have seen, I think the Vice President wins by between 5-9 points, the most likely outcome being a popular vote victory of 7 points 52-45 /2
In this the EV plays out as follows: a range of between 276-319 EV for Harris with the most likely outcome being 303 EV (Harris winning all of the swing states except GA).
Senate: I see a range of possibilities between D+1 to R+3 with the most likely outcome being /3
Senate: I see a range of possibilities between D+1 to R+3 with the most likely outcome being /3
R+1 (everyone holds serve except WV) although I can make a solid case for break even (Tester wins and Cruz loses).
House of Representatives. I see a range of possibilities between D+4 and +35, with the most likely outcome being D + 18. (I'm not going to name the districts.) /4
House of Representatives. I see a range of possibilities between D+4 and +35, with the most likely outcome being D + 18. (I'm not going to name the districts.) /4
That is (IMO) the most likely outcome:
PRES: Harris wins 303 EV +7 popular
SEN: R+1 (everyone holds serve)
HOUSE: D+18 (hello Speaker Jeffries).
There is a possibility of a much more resounding victory for the Democrats. The polling methodology has broken down and /5
PRES: Harris wins 303 EV +7 popular
SEN: R+1 (everyone holds serve)
HOUSE: D+18 (hello Speaker Jeffries).
There is a possibility of a much more resounding victory for the Democrats. The polling methodology has broken down and /5
most of the raw data has been significantly bluer than reported. Trump had MSG and his campaign has been a dumpster fire since then. The GOP does not have a turnout machine, and the Dems have a first class operation. IF GOP turnout collapses while the Ds turn out their /6
voters, it isn't difficult to see a repudiation of MAGA. Here's what that looks like:
PRES: Harris +11 (biggest margin since 1988) EV 412-126, I won't go into the details, you can figure it out with that.
SEN: D+1 (in this scenario, Tester and Brown win handily, and Scott /7
PRES: Harris +11 (biggest margin since 1988) EV 412-126, I won't go into the details, you can figure it out with that.
SEN: D+1 (in this scenario, Tester and Brown win handily, and Scott /7
and Cruz lose, and Hawley has an unexpectedly close race as does Deb Fischer).
HOUSE: D+42, every close race in a blowout comes up heads for the winner.
A GOP lack of a turnout operation coupled with Trump implosion leads to a massive blowout.
I think the first is /8
HOUSE: D+42, every close race in a blowout comes up heads for the winner.
A GOP lack of a turnout operation coupled with Trump implosion leads to a massive blowout.
I think the first is /8
far more likely than the 2nd, and I can even envision some scenario where the PV and EV is closer, but I think MI, WI, PA are baked.
/end
And I'll leave this open for comment.
/end
And I'll leave this open for comment.
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