Thread by @kylenabecker

"The math doesn't work. The Democrats are down 1.7 million early votes in the battleground states in urban areas."

"They are down 1.4 million votes in the battleground states among women voters."

"Rural voters have overperformed early by 300,000."

"Democrats have to win their races early. Republicans generally win them on election day."

"The margins don't add up right now for the Democrats in any of these battleground states," @marc_lotter said.

You can see that math is considered 'hate speech' to these triggered CNN journos 🤣

Looking at the tea leaves in Georgia, there appears to be a lack of Black voter enthusiasm for Kamala compared to prior Democratic presidential candidates.

She might actually be a worse candidate than Joe Biden! 😂

*The gray is the proportion of the voting electorate and the blue is the turnout in the first EV/mail-in chart

You see a similar trend in Pennsylvania. Black voters are *NOT* excited about Kamala.

And I might add, if Black voters were excited about Harris you would have seen it in the EV/mail-in voting already.

Now, MALE voters do need to step it up in PA, however.

Kamala Harris is in deep doo-doo in Wisconsin 👀

*Caveat.

“Now, there are a lot of smart analysts out there trying to read these tea leaves, and maybe they’re doing a lot better than I am with it. But I think here in Wisconsin, without party registration, we don’t know how many Republicans have returned ballots or Democrats have returned ballots,” Franklin said. “We just know what municipality they come from, or what county they come from.”

But if you take the party affiliation numbers with a grain of salt (and the data are from trustworthy sources), you can see that Black voter turnout is still extremely weak in Wisconsin.