The peacemongers have failed.
Escalation was not managed, conflicts were not contained, people were not protected, laws were not respected. Now I hear victory is "unrealistic" and not even worth fighting for. But I see things very differently, and here's why. 👇🧵1/10
The messy failure and total bankruptcy of our strategy is hard to watch. In desperation some hallucinate that a “peace agreement” would be achievable, effective, practical and sustainable, a magic wand to make all the bad things go away. 🧵2/10
Some hope a “peace agreement” would not only wash away our sins, but also make people forget that victory has always been possible. Sure, we could have won at any time, even now, but we chose to lose instead. Worse than that, we forced our choice on Ukraine. 🧵3/10
Now is the perfect time to remember the advice of Winston Churchill – We must choose between war and dishonour. We are choosing dishonour, and we will have war. 🧵4/10
We all agree Chamberlain made a mistake when he trusted Hitler to be happy with stealing only half a country. Being kind, we could blame naïveté. But today we cannot claim this defence. Repeating his mistake is a choice, it’s either stupid or cynical. 🧵5/10
World leaders often sit around tables discussing Ukraine without inviting Ukraine. The NB8 countries, sitting on Russia's border, are collectively the second largest provider of military aid to Ukraine but are sidelined too. 🧵6/10
Much hubris is required in order to ignore the advice of countries with decades or even centuries of experience of resisting the Kremlin, i.e. hundreds of years of crossed borders and broken “agreements”. We don't enjoy being right about this, we just ask that you listen. 🧵7/10
The "peace agreements" being floated would condemn millions of people to misery, occupation and fates worse than death. Talk of "recovery" is hollow if Ukraine is left vulnerable, waiting for the next attack. Investments will not flow, refugees will not return. 🧵8/10
Failure to defend our fundamental principles would simply project the West's weakness to all observers, inviting aggression from those who wish to exploit our apparent tendency to abandon non-NATO allies. War will follow dishonour. 🧵9/10
I therefore respectfully ask my colleagues to reconsider the huge benefits of saving our reputation globally by deploying our vastly superior resources to secure victory for our bravest and most capable ally, providing whatever it takes, with no hands tied. 🧵10/10
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Idealists say aggression is fundamentally unacceptable. Realists say Russia is so strong that resistance is futile and acceptance is the only answer.
Well, I say we are strong enough to defend our ideals, and fighting back is the most realistic choice. Here's why. 👇🧵1/16
Russia is attacking Ukraine not because of a threat, a diplomatic dispute or a broken promise. Russia is attacking solely because, in the Kremlin's view, Ukraine is weaker and therefore attackable. In other words, the attacks would stop if Ukraine was stronger. 2/16
We have gone back to the times of geopolitical power competition. International law and the UN Charter are being ignored and overridden by force. We must therefore increase our own strength to reverse this trend. 3/16
If all NATO members followed Lithuania and increased defence spending to at least 3% of GDP, there would be an extra $270bn available for supporting Ukraine and defending NATO's borders. I hear this is politically "impossible", but here's how Lithuania did it: 🧵1/12
Public support for defence spending requires a new social contract and a widespread understanding of the risks of inaction. In Lithuania, we understand the risk of Russian aggression far too well, our civilians have died under T-72 tanks. 🧵2/12
In countries with no experience of occupation by Russia there is a tendency to underestimate the risks to all of Europe that are being posed by this “regional conflict”. Such terminology is incorrect. This is now a global struggle for rules-based freedom and prosperity. 🧵3/12
My thoughts on my way back to Lithuania after the NATO Summit.🧵
The event was well organised and sent a strong message to the people of America about the respect the USA is attracting from its allies and partners.🧵
Politically the expectations for deliverables from the Summit were low. It was clear a couple of months ago how the declaration would look. If the goal was to have a smooth event, that was achieved. What didn’t happen was any major strategic breakthrough.
Will the EU listen to the people of Georgia and choose hope? Or will we discard our European values and compromise?
I have a lot to process after visiting Tbilisi. I will try to lay it all out in this thread. 🧵👇
🇬🇪‣ So called Transparency Law doesn’t seem to be about transparency. Most likely, the aim is to single out NGOs that are critical of political processes in the country and force them into submission. The ones that will be targeted are mostly financed by the EU and the US.🧵
🇬🇪‣ Fixing a law written in an anti-democratic spirit is beyond anyone’s ability. Many are convinced that any rewrites will just be a smoke screen that will still leave government with tools to start limiting NGOs’ ability to operate.🧵
Nice stories don’t win wars. Without significant deliveries of weapons and real security guarantees the glorious narrative of unity and solidarity with Ukraine is wearing thin and rapidly approaching cynicism. 🧵👇
Comforting stories can help win elections. But if they are false they immobilise us, prevent us from taking real action, while Ukrainians continue to die for us. 🧵
Ukrainians have performed miracles and repeatedly embarrassed the “experts”. We should be grateful to have such an ally, but instead of helping them win, we ask them to fight with one hand tied behind their back. 🧵