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Adam Carlson Profile picture
@admcrlsn
Nov 5, 2024 • 1 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
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More from @admcrlsn

Adam Carlson Profile picture
Apr 27
It’s rare that we get to examine Asian Americans’ political views. Pollsters often combine them with all other non-White/Black/Latino groups due to insufficient n-size

But in the latest Pew poll (4/7-13) we got a detailed breakdown re: Trump job approval (among English speakers) Image
The avg of all 5 crosstabs from Month 3 of Trump’s term among Asian Americans are a bit better for Trump at 36% approve, 61% disapprove.

That puts them about on par with Latinos (38-59).

For context, 2024 exit polls showed Asians backing Harris 55-40 & Latinos backing her 51-46
Here are the individual polls measuring Trump’s approval rating among Asian Americans from Month 3 of his second term:

AtlasIntel: 🔴 30-70
HarrisX (Harvard CAPS): 🟢 49-45
McLaughlin (R): 🔴 44-56
Pew: 🔴 29-69
YouGov (UMass Amherst): 🔴 27-64
Read 4 tweets
Adam Carlson Profile picture
Apr 16
Wild story in the WSJ.

It’s paywalled so I’ll screenshot some key excerpts below.

But basically it’s about how Mark Zuckerberg spent millions trying to suck up to Trump so Meta only had to pay $450M (instead of $30B that the FTC wanted) to settle an antitrust case against them. Image
We really didn’t deserve Lina Image
Image
Read 6 tweets
Adam Carlson Profile picture
Dec 17, 2024
Ladies and gentlemen, your initial 2026 House battleground districts Image
Tier two races (could become competitive under the right circumstances) Image
Districts highlighted in light blue = won by Harris and House Republican candidate

Districts highlighted in light red = won by Trump and House Democratic candidate
Read 4 tweets
Adam Carlson Profile picture
Nov 16, 2024
I guess we shouldn’t have passed the Affordable Care Act then, since a majority opposed it at the time.

i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/image… x.com/jonfavs/status…Image
Lest we forget that the ensuing electoral shellacking Democrats took in 2010 led to President Romney two years later.
In 2004 Democrats should also definitely have supported an amendment to the U.S. Constitution to define marriage as being between one man and one woman since a majority supported it.

"There go the people. I must follow them, for I am their leader."

pewresearch.org/politics/2004/…Image
Read 4 tweets
Adam Carlson Profile picture
Nov 9, 2024
Based on race calls from AP & DDHQ (plus a candidate concession), here’s where the House stands:

🔴 Republican: 216 (+2 tilting R)
🔵 Democrats: 209 (+4 tilting D)

Ds need an inside straight

Let’s go district by district for the 10 races that are still too close to call:

🧵 Image
#AKAL

No update, with Begich (R) leading Peltola (D) by just over 10K votes (or 4.1 pts) with 76% reporting.

A lot of the remaining vote appears to be from rural areas, which should help Peltola given its high Alaska Native population.

Probably Tilt R but a lot left to count
#AZ06

Ciscomani (R) regained the lead over Engel (D) after a drop in red Pinal County.

He’s up 1,795 votes (or 0.5 pts) with 76% reporting.

Engel needs extra favorable drops in blue Pima County to have a shot.

Tilt R
Read 11 tweets
Adam Carlson Profile picture
Nov 5, 2024
When you see results starting to come in tomorrow night (& beyond) context is everything

Sometimes mail and/or early ballots are counted first (more D), then Election Day ballots are counted (more R) — causing a “blue mirage”

Sometimes there’s a red mirage

Here’s a guide:

🧵
Sources:

NBC News
nbcnews.com/politics/2024-…

FiveThirtyEight
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/when-will-we-k…

Bookmark both of these (FiveThirtyEight’s breaks down all 50 states, which will be helpful for downballot races)
Also critical to note that the partisan breakouts by voting method will likely look a little to a lot different than 2020.

We can largely expect in-person early votes to be more R than in 2020, and Election Day votes to be more D than in 2020. TBD on mail.

Proceed with caution.
Read 10 tweets

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