Thread by @mkoplow

Netanyahu firing Galant is not a surprise. Given the bad blood between them and Netanyahu's desire to squelch any and all dissension within the coalition ranks, it was inevitable. But the timing is notable for a few reasons.

First, it comes on the heels of Galant yesterday approving a round of 7,000 new draft orders for Haredi conscripts. This is after 3,000 draft notices for Haredim were issued earlier this year, and only 230 of them reported to the IDF induction center.

Drafting the ultra-Orthodox is front and center in Israel this week, and today Bibi pulled a bill from the Knesset that would have guaranteed daycare subsidies for Haredi draft dodgers because it could not command a majority. Galant was its leading opponent in the coalition.

The Haredim pulling out of the coalition is Bibi's nightmare, and that possibility increased today when Bibi was not able to wrangle his coalition to pass an incredibly unpopular bill opposed by nearly every non-Haredi Israeli. He's hoping firing Galant removes one big obstacle

Second, the other big news this week is the arrest of 5 people, including a Bibi spokesman, for stealing classified info and leaking it to reporters to squelch support for a hostage deal. Also investigation into Bibi's aides altering the minutes of war cabinet meetings afterwards

Anything that changes the conversation and draws attention away from the leak investigation and Bibi's inner circle is good from his perspective, and this will definitely do that, at least temporarily. Bibi excels at flooding the zone to distract from bad news.

Third, when he tried to fire Galant the first time during the judicial overhaul, it drove hundreds of thousands of Israelis to the streets. My guess is that this time, it won't. Israelis are exhausted, there's war in Lebanon that has widespread support, protests have petered out

If ever there was a time to risk firing Galant, this is it. Bibi is gambling that there will be a loud but brief outcry that he will weather, and he can then move along with a defense minister that he can control (assuming he doesn't end up keeping the portfolio himself)

Lastly, the Election Day timing is not the prime motivator, but it's a factor. Galant is the administration's favorite and most trusted interlocutor. There will be lots of upset people in the WH and Pentagon over this move, and Bibi does it on a day when the US is most distracted

The staggering recklessness of this should not be understated. The U.S. is working with Israel to resolve Lebanon and keep Iran from responding to the October 26 strikes. We are also about a week away from the Blinken-Austin deadline for Israel to improve the Gaza aid process

So at a time when U.S. assistance is most needed and also when a real blowup between the U.S. and Israel is at its highest possibility, Bibi fires the person at the vortex of managing both of these issues, and also the person the U.S. likes best.

And even leaving this all aside, he decides to fire his defense minister with a war in Gaza, a war in Lebanon, maybe an imminent war with Iran, and the West Bank in horrific shape. It's Election Day here, but it's never been clearer how badly Israel needs its own election