EESTI LAUL 2025 SONGWRITER DEEP DIVE 🇪🇪📊🕸️
We have our first 15 songs for what's shaping up to be a highlight of the 2025 season! All songs have connections to previous entries, so even though we have to wait a month, we can already get a feel for the songs now! (A thread 🧵)
An-Marlen - "Külm"
2022 fan favourite An-Marlen is back! As with "Lõpuks muutub", An-Marlen has writing credits on "Külm" too
Andrei Zevakin feat. Karita - "Ma ei tea sind"
No stranger to Eesti Laul, Andrei has written and performed many entries already. He is joined by the team behind Ariadne's robbed 2022 fan-favourite "Shouldn't Be Friends", including Ariadne herself
Anna Sahlene - "Love Me Low"
A veteran of Melfest, Eesti Laul and Squid Game, this experienced singer is back again. Helping her is Swedish star writers Bobby Ljunggren and David Lindgren Zacharias, as well as legendary backing singers "Suured tüdrukud"
Ant - "Tomorrow Never Comes"
Superstar winner Ant Nurhan teams up with Kim Wennerström, who was behind last years winning entry, as well as Merili "M els" Käsper, who fans may remember from her song "So Good (at What You Do)"
Elysa - "The Last to Know"
No stranger to Eesti Laul at this point, Elisa is back with a Swedish-Danish team, with Julie "Kill J" Aagard having written bangers like "When I'm Gone", "We Will Rave" and "Run to the Hills" previously
Felin - "Solo Anthem"
Fans may recognize Elin from old junior and adult Finnish selections. She is joined by Paul Rey ("Talking in My Sleep"/"I Can't Get Enough") and Gevin Niglas ("Meeletu"/"Tunnete keel")
Frants Tikerpuu - "Trouble"
Fans will remember Frants for his duet with Triin Niitoja in 2022. Will he do better as a soloist?
Gem98 - "Psycho"
Experienced team here, with Gevin Niglas being the only writer to have multiple entries this year. You will recognize Frederik Küüts as one half of Anett x Fredi and a member of Gram-of-Fun
Janek - "Frozen"
As with his 2023 effort, this song was also written by Janek and Norwegian eurostar Kjetil Mørland. Can they improve on their previous result?
Joelle - "Eyes Don't Lie"
A member of girl group "Little Mess", Joelle is going solo, but still with the help of veteran writer Timo Vendt ("Amazing"/"La forza")
Minimal Wind - "Armageddon"
They finally found the right email address! As with last time, their entry was written by the group itself. Can they make the top 3 once again?
Räpina Jack feat. Kaisa Ling - "Tule"
One half of Räpina Jack, Hain Hoppe, participated with Estonian-Australian group The Jingles back in 2016, finishing 10th in their semi. How will he fare this time?
Stereo Terror - "Prty Till the End of the World"
We previously saw Lauri in UMK 2012, being behind one of the songs that failed to advance from the wildcard round. Now his song will finally make a final
Tommy Cash - "Espresso Macchiato"
No doubt the biggest name of the year, this espresso may taste of Eurovision succes, as Johannes Naukkarinen was also a writer on Käärijä's "Cha Cha Cha". Is Tommy destined for Basel?
Tuuli Rand - "Rem"
Another very experienced name, Tuuli has many participations on her resumé as part of various projects. This time she's solo, helped by the team behind Cecilia's "FOMO", including Cecilia herself!
And that's all! Hope you enjoyed reading, and found this thread informative! If you did, make sure to give me a follow, as I will be making similar threads for all national finals this season, as well as more stat-based coverage of Eurovision 2025. Until then, take care!
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MONTESONG 2024 SONGWRITER DEEP DIVE 🇲🇪🕸️📊
Welcome to the first NF deep dive of the season! In this series, I look at all links between the writers/artist of a national final lineup with other songs from the Eurovision world. The thread contains a detailed plot for each song 🧵
A quick disclaimer: Many of the credits were revealed with an initial instead of a full first name. Thus there may be a slight insecurity with some of these connections. If any mistakes come to my attention, they will be noted at the end of the thread. Now let's get to it!
Neonoen - "Clickbait"
Band member Marko has a past with the Eurovision world. In 2005 he placed 6th in the Serbo-Montenegrin national final. Two years later, he placed 3rd in the first ever national final of an independent Montenegro. How will his band do this time?
Hello Mello 2024 Songwriter Deep Dive 🇸🇪🕸️📊
Trying something new with a non-Eurovision contest, though obviously heavily inspired. If this does well, I may do more, perhaps Kënga Magjike 2024. Of the 25 entries, 22 have Eurovision connections 🧵
Valencia Montpaz - "Dancing All By Myself"
While Malin has written songs for Moldova, Lithuania and Croatia, Christian has been in Mello before, with David Lindgren's "Skyline" and Anton Hagman's Loreen-ending "Kiss You Goodbye"
Leon Frohm - "Better Days"
Anderz Wrethov has been a big player in recent Eurovision history, and now adds Hello Mello to his CV. He is joined by Marcus Winther-John (Break a Broken Heart/La teva decisió) and John-Emil Johansson, who wrote Malta's JESC entry last year
A fun little detail of Eurovision history. This graphs shows all Eurovision/National Final/Junior Eurovision entries ever, connected by their common songwriters. You see the small grey "tail" at the top left, only thinly connected to the rest of the network? (1/6)
Well, it turns out it represents Turkish entries from Eurovision/the long lost Turkish national finals! (2/6)
The thing is, the Turkish Eurovision world didn't have any songwriter overlap with the rest of Europe. For most of Eurovision history this "tail" would have been an island, completely disconnected from the big network - but one man, Olcayto Ahmet Tuğsuz, changed that (3/6)
The results of my "What If?" 2020 prediction survey are here. After receiving eurofans assessments of all 2020 entries' jury and televote potentials, these results were fed to a model simulating the contest 100000 times. These are the average results of the simulations
While this methodology sounds simple, it managed to produce more accurate results than the odds for the 2024 contest. Thus I feel like these results serve as an accurate representation of our "collective wisdom" on the 2020 contest
The Big Eurovision Prediction Survey 2025 - Participants results thread 🧵
In this thread I will reveal the results of the survey, including the average participation chance and most likely artists to represent each country, all based on your predictions. I will be going from least to most likely participating country
Overall, you predict an average of 36.46 countries participating. You have 32 countries with a chance over 80%, 10 under 20% and 11 somewhere in the middle. For 44/53 countries, you have submitted enough artist predictions for me to compile an overall top
The results of The Big #Eurovision Prediction Survey, Post-Rehearsal Speed Edition are finally here! Who will qualify from the semis? Who will win the whole contest? How will each country do? All these questions and more answered through your collective wisdom. Take a look: 🧵📊
A quick note on the model: I collected 106 sets of predictions of each country's jury and televote potential. Based on your estimates, I simulated the contest 100000 times, taking into account voting patterns and running order. This thread contains the results of the simulations
SEMI 1 QUALIFICATION CHANCES:
Here are the qualification rates for semi final 1. As you can see, 🇭🇷🇺🇦🇱🇹🇫🇮🇮🇪🇱🇺🇵🇹🇵🇱 seem to have solid chances, while 🇸🇮🇨🇾🇷🇸🇦🇺 are more up in air. Meanwhile 🇦🇿, and 🇲🇩🇮🇸 in particular seem to have a tougher fight ahead of them