Western media & political commentary are dominated by "doomers" predicting short & long term outcomes on the 'inexhaustibility' of Russia's personnel & equipment pools, despite overwhelming evidence that Russia is struggling badly.
Reality:
Russia is in a crisis of loss. 🧵
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Reality:
Russia is in a crisis of loss. 🧵
1/
The following are the things I've been tracking for some time:
1. The Russians are losing an infantry division every week to 10 days in terms of soldiers at a rate of between with a 1,100 to 1,700 and associated equipment.
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1. The Russians are losing an infantry division every week to 10 days in terms of soldiers at a rate of between with a 1,100 to 1,700 and associated equipment.
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https://x.com/WarSpotting/status/1853476782609211566
2. The Russian artillery is getting shorter ranged over time from losing the ability to make barrels and liners for 152mm guns. We are seeing literal WW2 122mm artillery pieces, presumably from North Korean stocks, in the Donbas.
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3. Half of Russians artillery shells in 2024 are from the DPRK. AFU reports RuAF is only outshooting them 2-to-1 in total shell count. While ROK military intelligence says the DPRK only has another 3 months of artillery ammo left to send to Russia at current rates.
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4. Training duration of replacement troops is getting shorter by the month. This means Russian replacements are less able to survive in combat. The average mobik now gets 7-to-10 days of training and most die in the first month.
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5.The Russians are repurposing troops from other arms as infantry, despite loss of capabilities like maintainers for nuclear rocket forces or naval seapower or tactical airpower.
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All of the above means that Russia has burned out its pre-war trainers and it is darned near through its ex-Soviet reserves of war gear.
The Russian economy is the size of Italy's in terms of GDP and most of the easily spent economic surplus is from oil and gas.
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The Russian economy is the size of Italy's in terms of GDP and most of the easily spent economic surplus is from oil and gas.
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Russia cannot build enough replacement war gear or munitions after the ex-Soviet stocks are gone to maintain the current pace of losses.
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newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/confirmed…
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newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/confirmed…
Furthermore, the Russian rail system is being overused the way the US rail system was in WW2.
Its worse, since the Russian rail monopoly was run like a family business. They were stealing from the maintenance & engine replacement budgets since 2013.
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Its worse, since the Russian rail monopoly was run like a family business. They were stealing from the maintenance & engine replacement budgets since 2013.
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https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1853532302749679746
That is when the Rail monopoly abolished the maintenance department because they replaced old rail bearing with Western ones lasting 20 time longer.
The wear out time for those bearing has arrived.
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The wear out time for those bearing has arrived.
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https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1853532318469689660
The Russian railway system has been at 100% usage since the late summer of 2021.
It's total tonnage carrying capacity has fallen by 1/5 from lack of maintenance & over use. Look closely at the difference between 2021 and 2024 to date.
Chart, H/T @Prune602
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It's total tonnage carrying capacity has fallen by 1/5 from lack of maintenance & over use. Look closely at the difference between 2021 and 2024 to date.
Chart, H/T @Prune602
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Finally, the Russian national fund runs out by early 2025 and no one is buying Russian national debt even at 21% interest rates.
See:
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See:
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https://x.com/Prune602/status/1852111359103660166
This means that Russia has to print money to keep the war going and the prices of everything in Russia right now are far higher than official statistics.
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The summation of all trends lands in the 1st quarter of 2025.
What this is telling my gut is that the Russian economy will be in in the beginning of a 1990's scale financial/economic crisis.
14/14 End
What this is telling my gut is that the Russian economy will be in in the beginning of a 1990's scale financial/economic crisis.
14/14 End
https://x.com/Prune602/status/1846377339946405962
@threadreaderapp unroll please
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