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Rob Ford (Not the Canadian one. Or his brother.) Profile picture
@robfordmancs
Nov 6, 2024 • 15 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Decided to go through this systematically. Incumbent government performance in wealthy democracies since March 2022, when Ukraine invasion really spiked things upwards: 🧵
South Korea President (March 22) - incumbent term limited, incumbent party lost
Malta (March 22) - incumbent Labour party re-elected, gains seats
Hungary (April 22) - incumbent Orban govt re-elected with larger majority
Serbia (April 22) - incumbent Pres re-elected but loses Parliamentary majority
France (April/June 22) - incumbent Pres re-elected with reduced share, loses majority in Nat Assembly
Slovenia (Apr 22) - incumbent govt defeated
Australia (May 22) - incumbent right wing govt defeated
Sweden (Sept 22) - incumbent left wing govt defeated
Italy (Sept 22) - far right coalition led by Meloni sweeps aside previous governing parties LN and M5S
Bulgaria (Oct 22) - largest party in governing coalition falls sharply, change of govt
Denmark (Nov 22) - centre-left govt re-elected, PM party gains seats
Israel (Nov 22) - messy result, but sees incumbent PM replaced and Netanyahu return
Estonia (Mar 23) - messy result, party which topped poll previous time falls, party of PM Kallas (who took over mid term) gains
Bulgaria (Apr 23) - messy, far right and populists make most gains
Finland (Apr 23) - centre-left govt coalition defeated, right and radical right opposition parties make strong gains
Greece (May/June 23) - centre-right govt re-elected
Spain (July 23) - centre-left govt clings on despite big gains for centre-right oppo, rad rt falls sharply
Slovakia (Sep 23) - incumbent govt defeated by populist opposition
New Zealand (Oct 23) - centre-left incumbent defeated by centre-right opposition
Poland (Oct 23) - rad rt incumbent defeated by centre-right opposition
Switzerland (Oct 23) - rad rt gain seats, greens and liberals lose seats
Netherlands (Nov 23) - governing coalition parties fall sharply, rad rt tops the poll
Portugal (Mar 24) - centre left govt defeated by centre right oppo
Croatia (Apr 24) - incumbent coalition re-elected, greens gain most seats
European Parliament (Jun 24) - Greens, Liberals and centre left lost ground, radicals of left and right gain ground
Belgium (June 24) - PM's party loses most of its seats. Belgian govts are messy
France (June/July 24) - incumbent President's party gets a pasting, far right and far left make gains
UK (July 24) - incumbent centre-right govt wiped out in a landslide, but with big vote gains for Greens, rad rt and rad left independents
Austria (Sep 24) - big losses for gov coalition of centre-right and greens, big gains for rad rt
Lithuania (Oct 24) - big losses for largest party in govt coalition
Japan (Oct 24) - LDP, near permanent party of govt, defeated
US (Nov 24) - centre-left incumbent Dems defeated
We've also had a bunch of bad to historically bad results in poorer democracies too, including ANC losing majority in S Africa, BJP losing majority in India, governing party defeated for the first time ever in Botswana, incumbent Pres defeated in Brasil, etc. Tough time to be an incumbent!
Three big lessons here IMHO - (1) voters have been punishing incumbents everywhere, regardless of political orientation, length in office etc (2) Voters have been switching to all kinds of opposition, regardless of political orientation but...(3) radical anti-system parties (of right and left) have done well in many places, again regardless of who's in govt
Trump benefitted from all three trends - he's running against the incumbent, as leader of the only opposition, and he's seen as radical/anti-system
More systematic analysis of the anti-incumbent trend here from @jburnmurdoch

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More from @robfordmancs

Rob Ford (Not the Canadian one. Or his brother.) Profile picture
Apr 9, 2024
Writing about the London Mayor election last week made me realise how much more interesting the West Midlands Mayoral election is...so now I've done a Swingometer post on the West Midlands (link in next tweet)
There has been a lot of talk, and quite a lot of polling, about Sadiq Khan's fate in London. But Andy Street's fate as Conservative mayor of the West Midlands is more uncertain & more interesting, and yet has attracted much less interest (& no polling)

open.substack.com/pub/swingomete…
Street represents 3 million people - he is therefore the Con politician with the largest direct mandate in the country. He's won twice in the W Mids, outperforming his party's national polling both times. But now he's running in a toxic national environment. Can he win? Image
Read 9 tweets
Rob Ford (Not the Canadian one. Or his brother.) Profile picture
Mar 25, 2024
Some brand new data and analysis on immigration. I put the numbers of migrants coming to Britain via various routes directly to the public and ask them whether they want to cut each group or not. Only two cases where a majority want cuts - ‘small boats’ arrivals & dependents of students
If we look only at those who had said earlier in the survey that they believed migration needed to be reduced, a majority favour cuts in four cases out of ten - two above plus asylum seekers and students in general.
There are therefore six large migration flows which even a majority of those who say migration is too high do not want to see cut: health and social care workers
their dependents
Other skilled workers
Their dependents
Family reunion imms
Ukrainian refugees
Read 5 tweets
Rob Ford (Not the Canadian one. Or his brother.) Profile picture
Feb 7, 2024
New on the Swingometer - "Labour and Muslim voters" - a deep dive into the electoral risks Labour might face from a slump in Muslim support open.substack.com/pub/swingomete…
A poll published this week by Survation showed Labour support among Muslims falling by 26 points - from 86% in 2019 to 60% now. This is a big shift, at a time when Labour support in general is rising. Could it cost the party seats at the general election?
I look at this question from three angles. Firstly, could Labour struggle in seats with largest Muslim electorates? No. All thirty seats with the largest Muslim communities were won by Labour in 2019, and Labour would hold all of them even if the Muslim vote dropped 26 points Image
Read 11 tweets
Rob Ford (Not the Canadian one. Or his brother.) Profile picture
Jan 28, 2024
Firstly, as many are pointing out, foundation courses are not same thing as standard courses. This is not an apples for apples comparison.
Secondly, if anyone imagines cutting overseas student intakes wld free up spaces for UK students, they don't understand uni finances at all
If the response to this is "cut off overseas students" then in most cases you will then have a university with a massive deficit. They will respond by cutting research and teaching across the board. That means less UK students, and even tougher entry requirements.
Its quite simple really: Universities lose money - lots of money - on British students. As in, thousands of pounds per student. They lose money on research, because govt doesn't fully fund overheads. Overseas students are how they balance the books.
Read 7 tweets
Rob Ford (Not the Canadian one. Or his brother.) Profile picture
Jan 9, 2024
One of the dominant tropes in current political discussion is "voters are fed up with the government, but are they convinced by the opposition?" This isn't new - exactly the same discussion happened in 2009-10 ahead of Cameron's win and in 1996-7 ahead of Blair's win
From Kavanagh and Cowley "The British General Election of 2010": "Despite some improvement in voters' perceptions, voters were still unsure about the Conservative Party's central message...'The Conservatives are no longer the nasty party. But people are not sure what they are.'"
From Butler and Kavanagh "The British General Election of 1997: "[T]here were still doubts that the lead was firm or that the party could win the next general election...was this any more than the usual mid-term dissatisfaction with the government? Would errant Tories return to the party, as the election neared? There was evidence that some converts to Labour might change again..."
Read 7 tweets
Rob Ford (Not the Canadian one. Or his brother.) Profile picture
Jan 1, 2024
OK time for the 2024 general election predictions thread now. I'm going to start with ReformUK and Nigel Farage - as predictions here have repercussions across the rest of the piece 1/?
Will Farage return? If he does, it will certainly be to lead ReformUK election campaign - this excellent @TomMcTague piece on unusual structure of ReformUK - a company with Farage as majority shareholder - means Farage can take over any time he wants unherd.com/2023/12/nigel-…
The case for a return is clear - there's once again a market for much of Farage's product - opposition to immigration, populist raging at failed elites. Even Brexit - Farage could mobilise disaffection about it by claiming (as he regularly does) that "true Brexit" never happened due to elite incompetence and treachery
Read 36 tweets

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