The global economy is about to be fucked up in ways that will have economists and historians studying the aftermath for generations to come. People have no idea. Those with savings and equities are most at risk.
The combination of failure to pass an Omnibus, likely US debt default, and shunting US Treasury assets into a “strategic bitcoin reserve,” and totally unregulated Ponzi crypto asset bubbles is a recipe for destruction of US and EU. The dollar will become worthless.
This sets up a zero sum game, to steal assets from those who have them now, and give them to people who hold play crypto assets. This paper explains how. Warning: requires reading, not just vibes, to understand. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
The only thing that can possibly stop this is a critical mass of Republicans breaking with the Freedom Caucus cult and threatening their peers with stark consequences. But that’s unlikely, and they don’t have much leverage.
So anyway unless some miracle occurs, this is the end. It was a good run, and we tried.
Some of you emailed asking about how to manage these risks. Here is a summary, which I will keep updated.
A thing I don't think people think about enough is that if the ROI on AI is less than 1:1, it won't be viable. Right now assumptions are being made based on the largess of VC investment. Will people be willing to pay what it actually costs, plus operating margin? Unclear.
This also elides the rights of creators; right now content is being stolen and repurposed wholesale and at scale. That cat may be out of the bag, but the 'industry' may not survive the resulting legal conflicts.
Don't mistake my financial skepticism as being anti-tech. The tech is interesting and useful within certain contexts, but people aren't thinking enough about the long term financial aspects nor about the very glaring and stubborn failure modes for which fixes are not imminent.
1/Yesterday I reported on this memorandum prepared by anonymous whistleblower authors about the imminent threat posed by Elon Musk to the American Republic. It is well-sourced and has been widely shared; this requires urgent action from Congress. america2.news/content/files/…
2/In addition, this additional 33 page Evidence Briefing with additional background and receipts is available for those interested in a deeper understanding of the origins of the Neoreactionary / Dark Enlightenment ideologies. america2.news/content/files/…
3/Because of the urgency we face in broadcasting an understanding of this material, I have used Google's NotebookLM tool to generate quick, digestible podcasts for both documents. This one covers the primary memo; you can listen right here.
1/Eight years ago this week I had a vision of what is happening now, and it chilled me to my core. I was traveling to Latvia to speak at an event. I reached out to the office of the late Rep. Elijah Cummings with my concern. He called me while I was on the tarmac in Riga.
2/I shared with him my concerns: about capture of the government by Putin, about Curtis Yarvin, about Aleksandr Dugin, and Steve Bannon, and various propagandists connected to Russia. He shared my concerns and pledged to look into it.
3/I wrote up my vision into two short articles, one quoting a piece by Dugin. I shared them widely, and with people in a position to act.
So all of this is terrifying, but do you really think Musk and Johnson are going to avoid defaulting on the debt? Do you really think they are going to pass a budget deal by March 14? When Mike Johnson, who has no bank accounts, was backed by the author of Project Russia?
The more I learn about what Elon Musk appears to be doing the more I think he needs an immediate mental health intervention. The dude is out of his damn mind.
Not only insane, but a terror threat on a global scale. Seriously, he needs to be stopped, before more people get hurt.
Musk has entered a very dark phase where his provocations will be accelerating daily. It will be very difficult to keep up with his assaults, much less adjudicate any criminal actions. He appears to believe we have entered 'the singularity.'