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Dave Troy Profile picture
@davetroy
Nov 7, 2024 • 6 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
The global economy is about to be fucked up in ways that will have economists and historians studying the aftermath for generations to come. People have no idea. Those with savings and equities are most at risk.
The combination of failure to pass an Omnibus, likely US debt default, and shunting US Treasury assets into a “strategic bitcoin reserve,” and totally unregulated Ponzi crypto asset bubbles is a recipe for destruction of US and EU. The dollar will become worthless.
This sets up a zero sum game, to steal assets from those who have them now, and give them to people who hold play crypto assets. This paper explains how. Warning: requires reading, not just vibes, to understand.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
The only thing that can possibly stop this is a critical mass of Republicans breaking with the Freedom Caucus cult and threatening their peers with stark consequences. But that’s unlikely, and they don’t have much leverage.
So anyway unless some miracle occurs, this is the end. It was a good run, and we tried.
Some of you emailed asking about how to manage these risks. Here is a summary, which I will keep updated.

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More from @davetroy

Dave Troy Profile picture
Sep 3
1/Russia and Thiel are done with Trump: Khanna, Massie, Greene, Boebert, Mace, Sherman, McGovern sign discharge petition to force release of Epstein files; will create significant public pressure for dirt on Trump, which will likely be difficult to fulfill.
2/Meanwhile Johnson, who is backed by authors of Project Russia, is running his own parallel game w/House Oversight, promising to release even more. But neither camp is talking about Sen. Wyden’s investigation into Epstein’s $1bn+ money flows that would reveal the full scope…
3/of his activities, which include infiltrating scientific research institutions in the same manner pursued by Robert Maxwell. Outside the prurient and illegal sexual activity, this is where the biggest story lies, and you can expect that Russia, Thiel and their allies…
Read 5 tweets
Dave Troy Profile picture
Aug 16
1/Increasingly bothered by the argument that the path to “intelligence” requires the theft of all known intellectual property. That’s not anything but theft, and if you were actually building “intelligence” it theoretically requires near zero training data.
2/If, as proponents argue, we are simulating human intelligence “in silico” then we should be able to build what amounts to a 12 year old’s mind. A 12 year old can be extremely “intelligent” (genius level in fact) but has necessarily trained on very little data.
3/Few are talking about solving that problem, because we really haven’t figured out the neuro-symbolic architecture to do it. Instead, we are vacuuming up copyrighted works (stored intellectual work of others) and billing that as “PhD level intelligence.” What utter bullshit.
Read 8 tweets
Dave Troy Profile picture
Aug 15
The funniest part about Zuck throwing billions into AI is his naming of the effort as “superintelligence,” as if that alone will manifest the gods. The second funniest part is he desperately tried to manifest the metaverse just 3 years ago — and failed at that, too.
What this tells us is that the core FB properties are aging cash cows and Zuck is desperate to invest billions in anything that will ensure his personal relevance as a tech titan 10-20 years from now. Good luck, but throwing money at things is no guarantee of success.
As @GaryMarcus and I have been saying the last few years, AI is up against some very challenging limits, and despite the massive investments in the space, progress has plateaued. Plenty to be done with what’s been built, but unclear the investments will be recouped anytime soon.
Read 13 tweets
Dave Troy Profile picture
Aug 8
1/Yesterday, OpenAI demonstrated that even after spending untold billions on scaling AI models, LLM’s alone aren’t the ticket to achieving superintelligence. This is linear growth, not an exponential leap, and that has several implications…
2/First, it vindicates people like @GaryMarcus who have correctly argued that language-only architectures lack capacity for reason and actual world modeling, and that neuro-symbolic architectures are needed. I agree, and while we can say “I told you so,” that’s not important…
3/relative to other implications. Much bigger is the coming reckoning in the marketplace. Models are commodities. Application developers have opportunities to make money, but there is likely to be a big contraction in the AI sector generally. That’s fine and a natural…
Read 8 tweets
Dave Troy Profile picture
Aug 1
As the Epstein blackmail/espionage story continues to fall apart, bookmark this for future reference. At some point people will figure this out.
gameb.wiki/index.php?titl…
And then, the New Mexico ranch will finally make sense.
nytimes.com/2019/07/31/bus…
Jim Rutt.
gameb.wiki/index.php?titl…
Read 8 tweets
Dave Troy Profile picture
Jul 29
This aligns with the data-driven analysis we performed. What Acosta may have been indicating is that Epstein was involved as a confidential informant on a case; but there is little else to indicate ongoing large-scale involvement or a sprawling blackmail ring.
That doesn’t mean there isn’t stuff we don’t know and that some of it is material. But it may mean that the government doesn’t have details on it, and that it’s incumbent on journalists to find out more. Our analysis here.
america2.news/we-mapped-jeff…
That said, journalists have doggedly picked over reams of data and leads on Epstein for decades. The idea we can find more when incentives were already so high seems improbable. But let the govt show what they have and let journalists do their work; we’ll see where that leads.
Read 9 tweets

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