Thread by @SteB777

With the election of Trump, I think the conventional approach to addressing the climate crisis is dead in the water. I mean COP talks, the fake Net Zero by 2050 etc, etc.

This thread is for climate activists, scientists, and all those trying to address this crisis.
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Whilst we don't know exactly what Trump will do in office, it seems certain that he will pull the US out of all international climate agreements, and massively interfere with, and stop all US government, climate action/research. This is just the bare minimum.
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Going by Project 2025, it seems likely that in the US, the regime will wage a war against climate science.

Trump is closely allied, to Putin/Russia, and Saudi Arabia, Modi/India and other fossil fuel producers consumers. So this will go well beyond US borders.
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With so many of the major fossil fuel producers, consumers, being dragged into the Trump sphere, it is not clear how other countries, can make any material difference to emissions, under the present framework, in that scenario.
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Remembering, that Trump seems geared up to do this right from the get-go, and was appealing to oil companies for support. This time, the fossil fuel industry, will be coordinated from the beginning. It will be much bigger than in the first Trump regime.
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In conventional, political terms, this would mean a minimum of 4 years, before this could be put back together. But this is based on the normal political cycle, and it swinging back to the Democrats in the US.
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It does not take into account Trump's oft stated dictatorial ambitions, and the dictatorial ambitions of politicians in the Trump sphere, after Trump is too old or dead. In other words, we cannot rely on normal climate action being resumed in about 5 years time.
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So anyone, thinking of conventional political climate action of the type over the last 32 years, is being unrealistic.

Other heads of governments in other developed nations have sent Trump grovelling obsequious congratulations, talking about working with the Trump regime.
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At the very least, if leaders of the Global North, aim to continue this grovelling relationship, with the US, they're going to have to make concessions, with an aggressive climate change denying regime, which won't take kindly, to global climate measures.
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This is essentially why the model of global climate policy pursued in the last 32 years, will be effectively dead in the water for the foreseeable future, without a major restructuring of strategy.

Remember, the Trump regime, is like to start aggressive trade wars.
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Trying to go it alone, without the US, which as I point out, is likely to drag other major fossil fuel producers/consumers, into the US regime's orbit would be highly misleading, and futile. That is without a new strategy.
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The conventional approach, the last time Trump did this, was just to sit it out, until Trump was out of office. As I point out in this thread, imaging this Trump regime, will be like the previous one, is a major miscalculation.

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https://x.com/SteB777/status/1854123122288443850

The whole MAGA sphere, has developed a whole new far more aggressive stance, against the whole state, after what they see as persecution by the legal system, and a Project 2025, type ambition. They intend to transform the whole state apparatus.
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This is a regime taking a fascist like trajectory, which means the elimination of political opposition, and a one party type scenario. These are not people who respect democracy, or political opponents. Yes, it's very difficult to know, how it will pan out.
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This is not all doom and gloom, I am setting out what we are up against, to formulate an effective strategy to deal with this situation.

It will be necessary, for other countries, to take a very firm and assertive position with the US, that we will not stand for this.
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No more of this grovelling to US sensibilities. Other countries need to be firm and assertive, if we are not going to get sucked into overt climate change denial, in being deferential to the US.
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One thing we must be mindful of, is no matter how much the US adopts an official position of outright climate change denial, the climate crisis is going to become ever worse, and climate change, ever more obvious.
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Therefore, any attempt by the US regime, to continue to maintain a position of outright climate change denial, is going to become ever more tenuous and futile, outright stupid, as North America itself will be hit with increasing climate impacts.
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It's not clear how this dynamic is going to play out. It will be difficult for the Trump regime, to pretend that hurricanes and other extreme weather, is being caused by deep state weather control, when they are in charge.
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It would be sensible for developed nations, to reconsider their adherence to neoliberal doctrine, considering, it put Trump into power, and is enabling other populist right movements.

20/threadreaderapp.com/thread/1854505…

It'd be a good time to be open, and for scientists to make this far more overt and clear, that the all out pursuit of growth, under the neoliberal doctrine, is not compatible with survivability, sustainability, and existing within planetary boundaries.

21/stockholmresilience.org/research/plane…

This is why this thread is not all doom and gloom, as I am setting out what we need to do, to deal with this scenario, which has been thrust upon us. This is not political, it is about the survival of humanity, and our civilization.
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One of the big problems, is that the Trump regime has drawn much of its support, from the particular US brand of extreme religious views, of which the new VP is an adherent, in which god will protect them, or it is destiny.
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A very large part of this religious right world view, Trump's support relies on, is steeped with the End of Times thinking, actually believing the world is destined to end. So not troubled by the collapse of our civilization, due to the climate crisis.

24/en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eschatolo…

We are not dealing with rational people, with a rational outlook, and it may not be fruitful trying to reason, with what is really a dangerous cult view.

Therefore, the rational world, needs a strategy to deal with it.
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I know, my approach of defining the problem to be addressed is often misunderstood. People will often say, okay, but what can we do about it.

The first rule of effective problem-solving, is first to acknowledge there is a problem, and to seek to understand it.
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Unfortunately, this approach seems alien to many/most people, who seem to think you should rush in with the first solution, that jumps into your head, without thinking things through.

I also believe in many minds being necessary.
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That is why I am not going to jump in feet first, with solutions, only outlining, the main parts of the problem, we must deal with.

It is not that I am devoid of insight, or ideas. I am humble, I accept I might not know best, and the answers might not be known yet.
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Nevertheless, as I have thought pretty deeply about the parameters of the problem, and I haven't seen much other commentary outlining these dynamics, I think it is worthwhile, my outlining it.
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I would love to just leave this open to responses, but I know from bitter experience, that when I do, I have to contend with a bombardment of personal attacks, and unsupported assertions, that are impossible to deal with.
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