Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Nov 8 5 tweets 2 min read Read on X
I can't sleep. Every night this past month, Russian drones are over Kyiv, often just outside my window that I wake up to their buzzing. In a new, twisted upgrade, they’re now armed with thermobarics—fire clouds that burn up all the air, and people, in any space they hit 1/ Image
These drones basically randomly hit something on their way, sometimes an apartment, sometimes an office, sometimes even a playground. That happens both at night and during the day. Air alerts are non stop 2/
On my drive to work every day, I see air defense machine guns out in the open—stationed on roadsides, near rivers, and in parks. Dozens. Sometimes they shoot while traffic is driving around them. All of this has become ridiculously mundane 3/
It is impossible to live and function in underground shelter all the time. So many people continue to go about their lives as if nothing is happening. The only new change is that we now watch to close doors between rooms to hamper fire cloud travel in case of a hit 4X
Some people have asked for sources. Here are some links. They are in Ukrainian. They describe a new payload that is a mixture of a new generation of thermobaric explosive and shrapnel (2306 metal pieces). They payload is 54 kg

novynarnia.com/2024/11/07/ros…

defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tec…

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More from @Mylovanov

Nov 9
The Economist is right: many Ukrainian officials privately favored a Trump win, seeing him as preferable to Biden’s "self-deterrence." Whether they’re right I don't know, but one thing’s clear—Trump will push a solution on Kyiv, like it or not 1/ Image
Zelensky quickly endorsed Trump's victory, frustrated with Biden's delays in aid and restrictions on long-range missile use. But I think Zelensky also quick moved to address the damage done to the relationship with Trump because of the Pennsylvania visit in September 2/
The Economist talks about two possible Trump peace plans:

1. Vance plan: freeze conflict on current lines, force Ukrainian neutrality

2. Pompeo plan: enhanced military support, potential NATO membership 3/
Read 11 tweets
Nov 9
I told CNN how Ukraine will adapt to Trump
Q: Do you think Trump will be good for Ukraine?
A: It's a new reality today
Many are anxious about Trump's position about pressure on Ukraine not to join NATO for 20 years. I don't believe that's going to happen. 1/
Q: Then, what about the WSJ report that Ukraine is not to join NATO in exchange for U.S. weapons?
A: This reminds me of  the Budapest Memorandum, when Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons for the fake security guarantees.
We learned the lesson and it won’t happen again. 2/
Q: Can limiting aid force Zelensky into peace discussions?
A: It is not Ukraine who refuses to negotiate, but Putin. He wants to talk to the U.S. directly. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Nov 9
You start living again…

A Ukrainian soldier’s deeply personal experience of war and learning to return home

WE ALL STAY HERE…

No one comes back from here. Ever.
The family only receives a tragic semblance of their son, husband, father—an aggressive beast. 1/
They see a creature, bitter at the world, who believes in nothing but death. Someone who flares up at a single word, who curses the world, and is ready to lash out at anyone who “looks the wrong way.” 2/
Yesterday’s soldier, sergeant, captain no longer belongs to parents or family. He belongs to her… he belongs to the war, from which only his body or what’s left of it has returned.3/
Read 39 tweets
Nov 8
Putin congratulates Trump and outlines his terms for peace talks (talks, not agreement!): Ukrainian neutrality for 20 years, territory annexation accepted and recognized, de fact Ukraine surrender. This is his rhetoric:
1/
Putin: “We have always recognized Ukraine's borders as part of our agreements [about neutrality] after the collapse of the USSR.”

Translation: No neutrality, no international borders But: this is an excuse, as Crimea was annexed when Ukraine was neutral 2/
Putin: The Ukrainian government has amended the basic law on the desire to join NATO - but we didn't agree on that. We never and nowhere support coups d'état

Translation: We control Ukraine’s foreign policy and who Ukrainians elect 3/
Read 10 tweets
Nov 7
Only Trump’s second day as president-elect, and his reported plan to “freeze” the conflict in Ukraine is already facing pushback from Moscow. Signals from Putin’s circle suggest outright rejection—a clear sign of how difficult Trump’s dealings with Putin will be 1/ Image
So, what is Trump's plan? Nobody knows! But the Wall Street Journal reports on multiple versions of different advisors. All proposals will freeze the war. But some are more damaging to Ukraine than others 2/
wsj.com/world/trump-pr…
One proposal is to commit Ukraine to abandon NATO for 20 years, in exchange for the U.S. pumping Ukraine full of weapons to deter a future Russian attack.

Is it realistic? I don't think so. Can the US commit to give enough weapons? Can Zelensky violate Ukraine's Constitution?3/
Read 7 tweets
Nov 6
Ksenia Yudaeva, sanctioned by the US, is appointed as IMF executive director for Russia and Syria (!). US Treasury declines to comment on sanctions implications for Yudaeva's ability to serve and the IMF’s reputation. Instead, an IMF spokesperson emphasizes directors' duty to fund's interests 1/Image
The Russian Central Bank governor Nabiullina credits Yudaeva with helping maintain Russian financial stability. I guess she means Yudayeva has done a fantastic job helping fund the war in Ukraine 2/
With this appointment, the IMF shows it is willing to overlook human rights abuses and international law. The fund prioritizes “stability” and “partnership” over justice, but in reality I think it is nothing but complicity in Russian crimes 3/
Read 8 tweets

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