1/8 The Kiel Institute, a well-known German think tank, has calculated that the cost of not supporting Ukraine is 10 to 20 times greater than the cost of offering that support
2/8 In recent months, there has been a rise in political voices in Europe and the US calling for a reduction or cessation of military support for Ukraine. The Kiel Institute has attempted to assess the approximate costs associated with this stupid idea.
3/8 Some argue that financial support for military assistance extends the duration of the war, which is both peculiar and ironic. This is particularly true since many of these same people advocate for Palestine in its conflict, a struggle that appears much less likely to succeed
4/8 The Kiel Institute evaluates the expenses associated with military support for Ukraine against the anticipated costs of withholding that support. It finds that providing support to Ukraine is significantly less expensive than not doing so.
5/8 To date, the average amount of German military support for Ukraine represents approximately 0.1% of Germany's GDP annually. According to their projections, ceasing support for Ukraine could lead to costs ranging from 1% to 2% of annual GDP over the next five years.
6/8 Consequently, discontinuing aid to Ukraine would lead to economic costs for Germany in the coming years that are 10 to 20 times higher than the costs of sustaining the current levels of military support.
7/8 Europe needs to take action and boost its assistance to Ukraine, whether through common debt, bilateral agreements, or even by using russia's frozen assets.
8/8 Sources:
Kiel Institute - The cost of not supporting Ukraine
@Erik2604
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1/6 Out of control: russia's central bank is projected to increase its key interest rate to 23% later this week. But will this rate hike be sufficient to rein in the rampant inflation driven by the failed invasion of Ukraine?
2/6 According to a Reuters poll, the russian central bank is anticipated to raise its key interest rate by an additional 200 basis points (bps) to 23% during its final rate-setting meeting of 2024 this week, driven by soaring inflation worsened by a declining rouble.
3/6 russia is in serious trouble as its increased key interest rate has failed to curb inflation, which has surged from 7.5% in June 2023 to 21% now. The central bank's benchmark rate was last at 23% in 2002. Will this be enough?
1/7 Unlimited failure: russia has suffered 700,000 casualties, lost control over Syria and Armenia, expanded NATO, and wrecked its economy, while reducing its occupation of Ukraine from about 30% in March 2022 to roughly 20% now. Look at the maps and witness the fiasco!
2/7 russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has marked its most significant failure on the global stage during Putin's tenure. Not only has russia failed in its invasion, but it has also suffered substantial losses as a consequence.
3/7 In March 2022, russia occupied approximately 30% of Ukraine, but nearly three years later, it now holds only about 20%. This reduction has come at the expense of 700,000 casualties, significant mobilization efforts, and a devastated economy.
1/5 With Trump poised to return to the presidency, iran's proxies are significantly weakened, and Syria's air defenses have been dismantled. This situation will likely allow Israel to carry on its operations against iran with even greater ease than before
2/5 If Trump behaves as he did during his first term, he is likely to allow Israel to operate freely against iran once he returns to the White House. This presents Netanyahu with a chance to take actions he has been anticipating for years.
3/5 Israel has been targeting the remnants of Assad's air defenses and air force, despite them not being a significant concern for its operations. This allows Israel to operate in Syrian airspace with even less challenge than before.
1/6 Reminder: Had anyone been told in March 2022 that the current situation would unfold nearly three years later, you would all have perceived it as a major Ukrainian victory and a russian defeat
2/6 russian propaganda is incredibly powerful and effective, attempting to make us forget the significant failure of russia's invasion of Ukraine. The country is still far from achieving its original strategic objectives.
3/6 In early March 2022, it seemed that Kyiv could be encircled at any moment, leaving Zelensky with no choice but to flee. Nearly three years later, russia controls significantly less Ukrainian territory than it did just weeks into the invasion.
1/6 Domino effect: By launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, russia overextended itself and initiated its decline following a prolonged period of strategic successes. Future failures are likely to accumulate
2/6 Putin has never acted morally, but he was on a significant streak of strategic successes in his underhanded operations for many years. That streak came to an end in February 2022 when he initiated his full-scale attack.
3/6 Authoritarian leaders often prefer to take matters into their own hands and tend to overreach in their quest to make a historical impact. The invasion of Ukraine serves as a prime example of this for russia.
1/8 russia is confronted with two significant challenges that render its war highly unsustainable: the war has worsened its labor shortage, causing inflation to spiral, and Soviet-era stockpiles of equipment are gradually depleting
2/8 russia is dealing with two primary challenges that render its war unsustainable over the long term. It will either need to reduce its efforts or receive significant support from its allies; without any changes, it cannot maintain its current level of commitment.
3/8 russia's inflation is its first challenge, stemming from a significant labor shortage that worsens with each individual recruited as a soldier or for the defense industry. When this is combined with heightened public spending and sanctions, the result is a volatile situation