Joni Askola Profile picture
Nov 8 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/8 The Kiel Institute, a well-known German think tank, has calculated that the cost of not supporting Ukraine is 10 to 20 times greater than the cost of offering that support Image
2/8 In recent months, there has been a rise in political voices in Europe and the US calling for a reduction or cessation of military support for Ukraine. The Kiel Institute has attempted to assess the approximate costs associated with this stupid idea. Image
3/8 Some argue that financial support for military assistance extends the duration of the war, which is both peculiar and ironic. This is particularly true since many of these same people advocate for Palestine in its conflict, a struggle that appears much less likely to succeed Image
4/8 The Kiel Institute evaluates the expenses associated with military support for Ukraine against the anticipated costs of withholding that support. It finds that providing support to Ukraine is significantly less expensive than not doing so. Image
5/8 To date, the average amount of German military support for Ukraine represents approximately 0.1% of Germany's GDP annually. According to their projections, ceasing support for Ukraine could lead to costs ranging from 1% to 2% of annual GDP over the next five years. Image
6/8 Consequently, discontinuing aid to Ukraine would lead to economic costs for Germany in the coming years that are 10 to 20 times higher than the costs of sustaining the current levels of military support. Image
7/8 Europe needs to take action and boost its assistance to Ukraine, whether through common debt, bilateral agreements, or even by using russia's frozen assets. Image
8/8 Sources:
Kiel Institute - The cost of not supporting Ukraine
@Erik2604 Image

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More from @joni_askola

Nov 14
1/12 What DEI? Trump's cabinet appointments largely prioritize loyalty over qualifications. The nominations of Tulsi, Noem, Gaetz, and Hegseth are so outrageous that they seem like an April Fool's joke, but we are in November Image
2/12 DEI was a term frequently used by Trump's campaign and supporters to criticize Democrats. However, his cabinet appointments reveal a lack of qualifications, as selections are based solely on loyalty. Trump also favors nepotism, with his son involved in choosing candidates. Image
3/12 Nepotism has consistently played a significant role in everything Trump does, yet this seems to not concern any of his supporters. His family is involved in various matters solely due to their relationship with him, much like during his first term. Image
Read 12 tweets
Nov 13
1/15 With negotiations likely on the horizon, don't be deceived by russia's bluff. Its economy is struggling, and the invasion has proven to be a substantial failure. In the long term, nothing about this war is sustainable for russia Image
2/15 Both Ukraine and russia seek to convey an image of strength as they near potential negotiations, which are unlikely to lead to lasting peace in the short term. Image
3/15 russia is attempting to launch attacks from multiple fronts, sacrificing more troops and resources than it can afford to create the impression of invincibility and pressure Ukraine into surrendering its sovereignty during negotiations. Image
Read 15 tweets
Nov 13
1/12 Ukraine and russia are both working on the front lines to strengthen their negotiating positions. Ukraine intends to mobilize personnel from now until February to make up for the losses in their existing units Image
2/12 Ukraine's military is hurrying medics to the front lines in preparation for a potential escalation in russian attacks, as both sides vie for territorial advantage ahead of Donald Trump's return to the White House. Image
3/12 russia is anticipated to launch attacks from multiple directions to reclaim the Kursk region, as well as in the East, South, and Northeast. They are prepared to commit significant troops and resources to demonstrate their strength before negotiations. Image
Read 12 tweets
Nov 12
1/9 Don't do it! Trump should not appoint the Putinist and Assadist Tulsi Gabbard as Secretary of Defense Image
2/9 There are speculations that Tulsi Gabbard could be appointed as Secretary of Defense in Trump's administration. That would be a significant mistake! She is, at best, a useful idiot and potentially a foreign asset. Image
3/9 Republicans previously criticized Tulsi Gabbard as a socialist trying to appease dictators such as Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin. Nowadays, a significant portion of the GOP is welcoming her. Image
Read 9 tweets
Nov 12
1/8 Putin needs either a continuous war or a total victory, and at this moment, he cannot achieve the latter. A peace agreement that fails to fulfill russia's initial strategic objectives would be seen as a failure, making short-term peace improbable Image
2/8 As Trump seeks to facilitate negotiations between Ukraine and russia, it's crucial to remember that russia is unlikely to agree to any deal that isn't highly advantageous for them, especially since they are still far from achieving their strategic objectives in Ukraine. Image
3/8 russia's initial strategic objectives of 'denazification and demilitarization' require Ukraine to capitulate to the extent of changing its leadership and becoming a puppet state like Belarus. This scenario is improbable. Image
Read 8 tweets
Nov 12
1/16 Listen up, Europeans! European countries should commit to new military aid packages for Ukraine before negotiations begin to strengthen its negotiating position and avoid being pushed into a poor agreement Image
2/16 Trump intends to have Ukraine and russia engage in negotiations in January. These talks are expected to be challenging and may not be very likely to succeed, given the significant differences in views and expectations between both sides. Image
3/16 To enhance Ukraine's negotiating position and provide it with greater leverage for a favorable outcome—while also avoiding any unfavorable agreements—European countries must commit to military aid before negotiations start. Image
Read 16 tweets

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