Joni Askola Profile picture
Nov 8, 2024 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/8 The Kiel Institute, a well-known German think tank, has calculated that the cost of not supporting Ukraine is 10 to 20 times greater than the cost of offering that support Image
2/8 In recent months, there has been a rise in political voices in Europe and the US calling for a reduction or cessation of military support for Ukraine. The Kiel Institute has attempted to assess the approximate costs associated with this stupid idea. Image
3/8 Some argue that financial support for military assistance extends the duration of the war, which is both peculiar and ironic. This is particularly true since many of these same people advocate for Palestine in its conflict, a struggle that appears much less likely to succeed Image
4/8 The Kiel Institute evaluates the expenses associated with military support for Ukraine against the anticipated costs of withholding that support. It finds that providing support to Ukraine is significantly less expensive than not doing so. Image
5/8 To date, the average amount of German military support for Ukraine represents approximately 0.1% of Germany's GDP annually. According to their projections, ceasing support for Ukraine could lead to costs ranging from 1% to 2% of annual GDP over the next five years. Image
6/8 Consequently, discontinuing aid to Ukraine would lead to economic costs for Germany in the coming years that are 10 to 20 times higher than the costs of sustaining the current levels of military support. Image
7/8 Europe needs to take action and boost its assistance to Ukraine, whether through common debt, bilateral agreements, or even by using russia's frozen assets. Image
8/8 Sources:
Kiel Institute - The cost of not supporting Ukraine
@Erik2604 Image

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More from @joni_askola

Jan 21
1/5 Europe needs a reality check.

The strategies that worked during Trump's first term are useless now.

We tried playing nice, and it failed.

It is high time to stop the appeasement and start facing reality Image
2/5 The time for Europeans to appease Trump is over.

We have spent the last year watching our tactics from "Trump 1" fail miserably in "Trump 2."

Flattery and silence do not work anymore.

He sees them as weakness, not respect Image
3/5 Trump lives in a bubble of total confirmation.

He is surrounded by sycophants who are too afraid to tell him the truth or challenge his worst impulses.

Because no one in his inner circle dares to confront him, he believes he can bully Europe without consequence Image
Read 5 tweets
Jan 20
1/8 Europe is sleepwalking into a forever war because we are too afraid to actually win.

We need to stop managing the conflict and start ending it.

Here is how 🧵 Image
2/8 Europe has the power to end the war in Ukraine much faster but it requires a total shift in strategy.

We need to stop managing the conflict and start winning it.

Here is the roadmap to force a Russian collapse👇 Image
3/8 We must help Ukraine scale its domestic defense industry in every possible way.

This means direct funding and technical advice.

A Ukraine that can build its own weapons is a Ukraine that can sustain the fight without relying solely on foreign logistics Image
Read 8 tweets
Jan 15
1/7 Trump is no isolationist:

He is a show interventionist, a cowardly form of imperialist interventionism that is also meant to entertain the world Image
2/7 Trump's entire campaign was built on the lie that he would end wars and stop regime change operations.

It has been a year since he promised to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours and the fighting continues Image
3/7 While he appointed isolationists to his administration, his actions tell a different story.

He claims to have ended eight wars but he hasn't ended any. In reality it looks more likely that he will start eight new ones before his term is over Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 13
1/8 Why JD Vance is a greater threat to the American experiment than Donald Trump.

A thread on the Dark Enlightenment, eyeliner, and the end of the West🧵 Image
2/8 Trump may be the worst and most traitorous president in US history, but JD Vance is a far more calculated threat.

Trump is erratic. Vance is a disciplined, smart, and well-organized opportunist ready to dismantle democracy with precision Image
3/8 The PayPal Mafia has one foot in the White House door by installing Vance. Tech oligarch Peter Thiel effectively owns him.

Their goal is clear: move Vance into the presidency to serve their personal interests and finish the job Image
Read 8 tweets
Jan 11
1/7 Putin doesn’t want you to know this:

Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine has now lasted longer than the Soviet Union’s war against Nazi Germany in WWII.

By this stage of that war, Soviet troops were already in Berlin.

Today, Russia is still struggling to take Chasiv Yar Image
2/7 Russia has been trying to conquer the Donbas for 12 years, and the rest of Ukraine for nearly four of those.

Despite going all in and receiving help from partners, Russia controls less land now than it did in March 2022, one month into the invasion Image
3/7 The cost?

Over a million Russian casualties.

And after all that Russia still hasn’t achieved its strategic goals. It is far from controlling the Donbas let alone Ukraine.

This is a failure so massive it will be studied in military academies for decades Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 7
1/5 Europe still treats unmanned systems like a niche.

Meanwhile, Russia already has an 80k-man strong unmanned systems branch that it plans to double in size in 2026.

If we do not scale up fast, we are handing Moscow an advantage that could cost us our survival Image
2/5 Russia now has 80k troops dedicated to unmanned systems and plans to double that number in 2026.

That is the size of a mid-tier European army, and it is about to get twice as big.

The gap keeps widening, and it will come back to bite us Image
3/5 The gap keeps widening. Ukraine and Russia are all in on drones and unmanned tech.

Europe still acts like this is a side project, a bonus.

If Russia attacked an EU country tomorrow, we would struggle for months before catching up.

That would cost us lives and territory Image
Read 5 tweets

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