Joni Askola Profile picture
Nov 8, 2024 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/8 The Kiel Institute, a well-known German think tank, has calculated that the cost of not supporting Ukraine is 10 to 20 times greater than the cost of offering that support Image
2/8 In recent months, there has been a rise in political voices in Europe and the US calling for a reduction or cessation of military support for Ukraine. The Kiel Institute has attempted to assess the approximate costs associated with this stupid idea. Image
3/8 Some argue that financial support for military assistance extends the duration of the war, which is both peculiar and ironic. This is particularly true since many of these same people advocate for Palestine in its conflict, a struggle that appears much less likely to succeed Image
4/8 The Kiel Institute evaluates the expenses associated with military support for Ukraine against the anticipated costs of withholding that support. It finds that providing support to Ukraine is significantly less expensive than not doing so. Image
5/8 To date, the average amount of German military support for Ukraine represents approximately 0.1% of Germany's GDP annually. According to their projections, ceasing support for Ukraine could lead to costs ranging from 1% to 2% of annual GDP over the next five years. Image
6/8 Consequently, discontinuing aid to Ukraine would lead to economic costs for Germany in the coming years that are 10 to 20 times higher than the costs of sustaining the current levels of military support. Image
7/8 Europe needs to take action and boost its assistance to Ukraine, whether through common debt, bilateral agreements, or even by using russia's frozen assets. Image
8/8 Sources:
Kiel Institute - The cost of not supporting Ukraine
@Erik2604 Image

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More from @joni_askola

Jan 7
1/5 Europe still treats unmanned systems like a niche.

Meanwhile, Russia already has an 80k-man strong unmanned systems branch that it plans to double in size in 2026.

If we do not scale up fast, we are handing Moscow an advantage that could cost us our survival Image
2/5 Russia now has 80k troops dedicated to unmanned systems and plans to double that number in 2026.

That is the size of a mid-tier European army, and it is about to get twice as big.

The gap keeps widening, and it will come back to bite us Image
3/5 The gap keeps widening. Ukraine and Russia are all in on drones and unmanned tech.

Europe still acts like this is a side project, a bonus.

If Russia attacked an EU country tomorrow, we would struggle for months before catching up.

That would cost us lives and territory Image
Read 5 tweets
Jan 7
1/7 Right now, we do not have a Coalition of the Willing.

We have a Coalition of the Unwilling, pretending to plan for the future while ignoring the present.

That needs to change if Europe wants to survive Image
2/7 Yesterday, the so-called Coalition of the Willing signed papers on deploying European troops to Ukraine after the war.

Sounds bold, right? Except the war is far from over, and real negotiations have not even started Image
3/7 This commitment does nothing to give Russia an incentive to stop the war.

Worse, Europe has not even dared send troops to Western Ukraine during the war, or respond to Russia’s hybrid attacks.

That kills credibility for any future security guarantees Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 6
1/6 Trump’s threat to seize Greenland isn’t just reckless. It’s traitorous.

Almost everything he does benefits Russia and China.

This move forces Europe to panic about Greenland instead of focusing on Ukraine, which is exactly what Moscow and Beijing want Image
2/6 Trump is the most traitorous president in US history.

Epstein’s emails show Jeffrey Epstein helped Russia blackmail Trump.

That could explain why Trump refuses to pressure Russia even as Moscow rejects his ceasefire proposals and keeps waging war Image
3/6 His latest stunt in Venezuela already pushes the world toward spheres of influence, giving Russia and China endless “whataboutism” ammo.

But Greenland is worse. It diverts Europe’s attention from Ukraine at the most critical moment Image
Read 6 tweets
Jan 4
1/7 Be careful what you wish for:

Those who pushed multipolarity and spheres of influence are now seeing the result of their ideology in Venezuela.

And this is just the beginning 🧵 Image
2/7 For years, anti-West voices claimed multipolarity would mean peace and less US overreach.

They quoted Mearsheimer and Russian propaganda to defend Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Now they see what multipolarity really means Image
3/7 With China rising and US hegemony eroding, Trump is accelerating the shift to spheres of influence.

He wants the US to dominate the Americas, the Middle East and Western Europe, Russia to grab Eastern Europe, and China to take the rest Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 4
1/13 What to think about Trump’s Venezuela Operation?

So far it looks less like regime change and more like a hostile and illegal corporate takeover.

What does this mean for the world?

Let’s break it down 🧵 Image
2/13 After months of threats, sunk boats, and US military gear moving into the Caribbean, Trump finally made his move yesterday.

In a daring operation, he struck Venezuela’s air defenses and kidnapped Maduro, flying him to the US for trial Image
3/13 Morals aside, the first phase was an operational success.

It’s exactly what Russia tried and failed to do in Ukraine early in its “special military operation.”

The US remains the best at this type of mission and proved it last night Image
Read 13 tweets
Jan 2
1/7 Why appointing Budanov to replace Yermak as Zelensky’s chief of staff might be the right choice and what it means for Ukraine’s future 🧵 Image
2/7 Zelensky announced Budanov will succeed Yermak as chief of staff.

Yermak stepped down in November after years in the role. He was powerful and feared, which matters during war, but unpopular, seen as incompetent, and tied to corruption.

Change was inevitable Image
3/7 The shortlist included Shmyhal, Fedorov, Kyslytsya, Palisa, and Budanov.

Zelensky needed someone tough, respected, seen as having integrity, and more popular than Yermak while also competent. Not an easy task under massive pressure from Russia, Trump, and internal factions Image
Read 7 tweets

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