1/8 The Kiel Institute, a well-known German think tank, has calculated that the cost of not supporting Ukraine is 10 to 20 times greater than the cost of offering that support
2/8 In recent months, there has been a rise in political voices in Europe and the US calling for a reduction or cessation of military support for Ukraine. The Kiel Institute has attempted to assess the approximate costs associated with this stupid idea.
3/8 Some argue that financial support for military assistance extends the duration of the war, which is both peculiar and ironic. This is particularly true since many of these same people advocate for Palestine in its conflict, a struggle that appears much less likely to succeed
4/8 The Kiel Institute evaluates the expenses associated with military support for Ukraine against the anticipated costs of withholding that support. It finds that providing support to Ukraine is significantly less expensive than not doing so.
5/8 To date, the average amount of German military support for Ukraine represents approximately 0.1% of Germany's GDP annually. According to their projections, ceasing support for Ukraine could lead to costs ranging from 1% to 2% of annual GDP over the next five years.
6/8 Consequently, discontinuing aid to Ukraine would lead to economic costs for Germany in the coming years that are 10 to 20 times higher than the costs of sustaining the current levels of military support.
7/8 Europe needs to take action and boost its assistance to Ukraine, whether through common debt, bilateral agreements, or even by using russia's frozen assets.
8/8 Sources:
Kiel Institute - The cost of not supporting Ukraine
@Erik2604
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1/5 THREAD: Does Trump fear Putin — or is he just a russian asset?
His latest ”10-day deadline” for Putin ends today. And once again: nothing.
How long will we keep pretending Trump’s ultimatums mean anything?
2/5 Trump has gone from ”ending the war before reentering the White House” to ”24 hours,” then ”100 days,” then ”2 more weeks,” then ”50 days,” then ”10 days.”
Every time, he falls for Putin’s delay tactics. Every time, he does nothing
3/5 russia sees Trump’s weakness. Since his return to the White House, russian strikes on Ukrainian cities have escalated. No one fears him. He projects weakness, and Putin keeps gaslighting him — because it works
1/11 THREAD: Why peace in Ukraine is impossible in the short run
russia cannot afford a just peace. It is far from achieving its strategic objectives and has made this useless war existential — for Ukraine, and for Putin’s regime
2/11 Putin launched this unprovoked war not just to seize land, but to erase Ukraine’s sovereignty, culture, and history. He’s said it openly. This is a genocidal war. russia has committed war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and mass child abductions. Putin is wanted by the ICC
3/11 Stopping would mean accepting failure:
- Way less territory than in March 2022
- Over 1 million total casualties
- A united, armed, sovereign Ukraine
For Putin, that’s not peace — it’s defeat. Continuing the war blurs the reality and buys time