Joni Askola Profile picture
Nov 8, 2024 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/8 The Kiel Institute, a well-known German think tank, has calculated that the cost of not supporting Ukraine is 10 to 20 times greater than the cost of offering that support Image
2/8 In recent months, there has been a rise in political voices in Europe and the US calling for a reduction or cessation of military support for Ukraine. The Kiel Institute has attempted to assess the approximate costs associated with this stupid idea. Image
3/8 Some argue that financial support for military assistance extends the duration of the war, which is both peculiar and ironic. This is particularly true since many of these same people advocate for Palestine in its conflict, a struggle that appears much less likely to succeed Image
4/8 The Kiel Institute evaluates the expenses associated with military support for Ukraine against the anticipated costs of withholding that support. It finds that providing support to Ukraine is significantly less expensive than not doing so. Image
5/8 To date, the average amount of German military support for Ukraine represents approximately 0.1% of Germany's GDP annually. According to their projections, ceasing support for Ukraine could lead to costs ranging from 1% to 2% of annual GDP over the next five years. Image
6/8 Consequently, discontinuing aid to Ukraine would lead to economic costs for Germany in the coming years that are 10 to 20 times higher than the costs of sustaining the current levels of military support. Image
7/8 Europe needs to take action and boost its assistance to Ukraine, whether through common debt, bilateral agreements, or even by using russia's frozen assets. Image
8/8 Sources:
Kiel Institute - The cost of not supporting Ukraine
@Erik2604 Image

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More from @joni_askola

Nov 21
1/11 Trump’s 28-Point “Peace Plan” and what it really means for Ukraine Image
2/11 Trump’s plan is not peace. It is surrender.

The timing is no coincidence. It comes as Ukraine faces a tough front and a corruption scandal.

Perfect storm for pressure Image
3/11 The leaked document is worse than expected. It mirrors Russia’s maximalist demands.

No concessions from Moscow Image
Read 11 tweets
Nov 19
1/9 Trump’s secret talks with Russia are not about peace.

They are about surrender and blackmail.

Here’s what Axios and Epstein emails reveal 🧵 Image
2/9 Axios says Trump is negotiating with Moscow behind Ukraine’s and Europe’s back again.

Rumors even claim peace is near.

Epstein emails showed it’s not stupidity, it’s blackmail.

Trump is betraying the US and its allies because Russia owns him Image
3/9 This will not lead to peace.

There can’t be negotiations about Ukraine without Ukraine.

And there is no way Russia agreed to a deal Ukraine would accept Image
Read 9 tweets
Nov 18
1/7 Does Europe even want Ukraine to win?

Trump clearly does not. He still refuses to sell missiles to Ukraine, hurting Ukraine, the West, and even the US defense industry.

Waiting for him is a losing strategy. Europe must act now! Image
2/7 Ukraine’s strike campaign works. It hits Russian refineries, cripples infrastructure, and drains air defense interceptors.

But Ukraine lacks enough drones and missiles to scale this up and put Russia on its knees Image
3/7 Ukraine is building its own systems and scaling production, but that takes time.

Even small US sales of Tomahawks, Barracudas, ATACMS, or JASSMs would help. Trump blocks that, so Europe must fill the gap Image
Read 7 tweets
Nov 18
1/13 Could Europe defeat Russia in a real war?

On paper yes. In reality, we are not ready.

Power without readiness is weakness.

Here is why Europe would struggle and what must change to deter Russia before it is too late🧵 Image
2/13 The problem is not just weapons.

Europe is behind not only in unmanned warfare, but also in coordination between public institutions, industry, and citizens.

Infrastructure and societal resilience matter as much as tanks and missiles Image
3/13 Europe has everything it needs to beat Russia: huge population, strong economies, advanced industry, innovation, and allies.

On paper, we should easily outmatch Russia. Yet if war started tomorrow, we would struggle and struggle for a long time before turning things around Image
Read 13 tweets
Nov 17
1/5 Better late than never!

Zelensky met Macron in Paris today.

The leaders signed a letter of intent that opens the way for Ukraine to acquire up to 100 Rafale fighter jets, SAMP/T air defense batteries, interceptors, radars, and more ⬇️ Image
2/5 This is great for Ukraine and France, but let’s be clear: these are not orders yet.

Just like with Gripen E jets, there is still no funding.

Ukraine needs Russian frozen assets seized to make these purchases possible. This needs to happen ASAP Image
3/5 Timing matters. France is politically unstable right now.

Large defense orders will make it harder for future French governments after Macron to turn their back on Kyiv.

This is smart strategy from Ukraine: security and industry interests will align Image
Read 5 tweets
Nov 17
1/7 The Trump–Vance war is being fought behind the scenes.

What would a Vance victory mean for US policy?

He is even worse and more dangerous than Trump ⬇️ Image
2/7 This fight is unfolding in private meetings, donor networks, and media ecosystems that most people never see.

Vance’s backers/owners Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, and their associates are leveraging the Epstein files in an effort to sideline Trump and elevate Vance before 2028 Image
3/7 Trump was always just a stepping stone.

He is old, unpopular, and tainted by Epstein files.

They need to avoid being stained by him. That is why Vance stays silent on Epstein emails Image
Read 7 tweets

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