Joni Askola Profile picture
Nov 8, 2024 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/8 The Kiel Institute, a well-known German think tank, has calculated that the cost of not supporting Ukraine is 10 to 20 times greater than the cost of offering that support Image
2/8 In recent months, there has been a rise in political voices in Europe and the US calling for a reduction or cessation of military support for Ukraine. The Kiel Institute has attempted to assess the approximate costs associated with this stupid idea. Image
3/8 Some argue that financial support for military assistance extends the duration of the war, which is both peculiar and ironic. This is particularly true since many of these same people advocate for Palestine in its conflict, a struggle that appears much less likely to succeed Image
4/8 The Kiel Institute evaluates the expenses associated with military support for Ukraine against the anticipated costs of withholding that support. It finds that providing support to Ukraine is significantly less expensive than not doing so. Image
5/8 To date, the average amount of German military support for Ukraine represents approximately 0.1% of Germany's GDP annually. According to their projections, ceasing support for Ukraine could lead to costs ranging from 1% to 2% of annual GDP over the next five years. Image
6/8 Consequently, discontinuing aid to Ukraine would lead to economic costs for Germany in the coming years that are 10 to 20 times higher than the costs of sustaining the current levels of military support. Image
7/8 Europe needs to take action and boost its assistance to Ukraine, whether through common debt, bilateral agreements, or even by using russia's frozen assets. Image
8/8 Sources:
Kiel Institute - The cost of not supporting Ukraine
@Erik2604 Image

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More from @joni_askola

Oct 16
1/4 Trump fell for it again.

He spoke with Putin just one day before meeting Zelensky and agreed to meet him in Budapest to discuss peace.

Budapest is Putin’s turf.

This is a delay tactic to stop Trump from selling missiles to Ukraine Image
2/4 Putin is buying time. Trump is giving it to him.

Instead of pushing forward with weapons for Ukraine, Trump is now chasing another empty summit.

This is how Russia avoids consequences and stalls support Image
3/4 Reminder: Trump has sent zero new aid to Ukraine.

He has imposed no new sanctions on Russia.

If he ever does something helpful, treat it as a surprise.

He is consistently weak on Russia Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 16
1/5 Ukraine has intensified its strikes and has now started hitting Russia’s power grid.

Russia has targeted Ukraine’s grid for years.

How will this shift impact the war and how Russians see it? Image
2/5 Both sides are fully committed to long-range strikes.

These are now the fastest way to shift momentum and accelerate the end of the war.

Ukraine is targeting oil refineries, defense production, and military infrastructure.

Russia targets everything, including civilians Image
3/5 Striking Russia’s power grid serves two goals.

It may deter Russia from hitting Ukraine’s grid, although that is unlikely.

And it brings the war home to ordinary Russians.

That pressure could change how the war is viewed inside Russia Image
Read 5 tweets
Oct 15
1/6 Russia and Ukraine are in a race against time.

Ground movements now matter less than long-range strikes.

The side that scales up missile and drone production faster will win this phase of the war, and it will be Ukraine.

Russia is in deep trouble Image
2/6 Ukraine has intensified its strike campaign in recent months.

Russia has too. Geran production is at record highs.

But Russia relies heavily on Shaheds, and Ukraine will eventually hit the Yelabuga drone factory Image
3/6 Ukraine is now producing cruise missiles with longer range and larger payloads.

Its strikes have been effective, hitting refineries and key infrastructure.

With US intel support, Ukraine is planning more. It hopes to get missiles from the US, paid by Europe Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 15
1/7 Finland has the most advanced total defense model in Europe.

It is not just for war. It helps in any crisis.

Government, businesses, civil society, and citizens all have roles.

Europe should treat this as a benchmark and start building toward it, not merely on paper Image
2/7 Every big building has a bomb shelter.

Every sector has a contingency plan.

Every citizen knows what to do.

Finland’s model is built on realism, not illusions. It is quiet, practical, cheap, and effective Image
3/7 The military is backed by a trained reserve, strategic stockpiles, and legal obligations for civil preparedness.

No other European country has this level of integration.

It is the most complete deterrence system on the continent Image
Read 7 tweets
Oct 14
1/5 Zelensky has just revoked the citizenship of Odesa Mayor Hennadiy Trukhanov.

The reason? He allegedly holds a Russian passport.

If confirmed, this could finally bring an end to the reign of one of Ukraine’s most corrupt and controversial leaders Image
2/5 Trukhanov has ruled Odesa since 2014.

He’s been linked to organized crime, smuggling networks, and major corruption cases.

He was arrested in 2023 for embezzling $2.5 million in a fake real estate deal. The case is still dragging on Image
3/5 He’s also been accused of blocking military aid, delaying defense spending, and making pro-Russian statements.

While Odesa was under threat, he did little to help.

For years, he treated the city like his personal empire Image
Read 5 tweets
Oct 14
1/5 With Gaza partially settled for now, Trump is shifting focus.

Zelensky is meeting him this week.

Ukraine wants Tomahawk missiles. Trump sounds more supportive than ever.

But don’t get fooled Image
2/5 Yes, Tomahawks would help.

But there are only a few ground launchers available.

Unless sent in large numbers, they won’t change the war.

Even so, a few would be a powerful signal Image
3/5 Trump has sounded promising lately.

But he hasn’t sent new aid. Hasn’t added sanctions. And just thanked Putin for saying he deserved a Nobel Peace Prize.

This is who he is Image
Read 5 tweets

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