Joni Askola Profile picture
Nov 8, 2024 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/8 The Kiel Institute, a well-known German think tank, has calculated that the cost of not supporting Ukraine is 10 to 20 times greater than the cost of offering that support Image
2/8 In recent months, there has been a rise in political voices in Europe and the US calling for a reduction or cessation of military support for Ukraine. The Kiel Institute has attempted to assess the approximate costs associated with this stupid idea. Image
3/8 Some argue that financial support for military assistance extends the duration of the war, which is both peculiar and ironic. This is particularly true since many of these same people advocate for Palestine in its conflict, a struggle that appears much less likely to succeed Image
4/8 The Kiel Institute evaluates the expenses associated with military support for Ukraine against the anticipated costs of withholding that support. It finds that providing support to Ukraine is significantly less expensive than not doing so. Image
5/8 To date, the average amount of German military support for Ukraine represents approximately 0.1% of Germany's GDP annually. According to their projections, ceasing support for Ukraine could lead to costs ranging from 1% to 2% of annual GDP over the next five years. Image
6/8 Consequently, discontinuing aid to Ukraine would lead to economic costs for Germany in the coming years that are 10 to 20 times higher than the costs of sustaining the current levels of military support. Image
7/8 Europe needs to take action and boost its assistance to Ukraine, whether through common debt, bilateral agreements, or even by using russia's frozen assets. Image
8/8 Sources:
Kiel Institute - The cost of not supporting Ukraine
@Erik2604 Image

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More from @joni_askola

Dec 21
1/12 We are so back!

Evil forces around the world have started to struggle in 2025, giving hope for a better future.

The tide is turning.

Let’s hope they struggle even more in 2026 Image
2/12 The last few years felt hopeless.

Dictators grew aggressive. Russia invaded Ukraine. China rose as a global power. Trump attempted a coup in 2021 and returned in 2024. Tech oligarchs gained influence.

Post-truth made everything worse Image
3/12 Enemies of the West exploited chaos.

Russia expanded aggression. China pushed harder. Trump betrayed allies. Musk and Thiel used power for profit while cutting aid that cost thousands of lives.

It was bleak Image
Read 12 tweets
Dec 18
1/10 Ukraine must make sure Russians never feel in control.

It is going more and more asymmetric because playing fair will not win this war where Russia never does.

Ukraine must push this strategy even harder Image
2/10 Just defending gives Russia no reason to stop.

Trading land for time is smart, but not enough.

Ukraine is striking deep inside Russia and must scale up production even further and shift toward more asymmetric tactics to make the war far more costly for Russia Image
3/10 Ukraine’s two-part strategy is to trade land for time and crush Russia’s economy with deep strikes on oil and infrastructure.

It works, but it needs acceleration.

Every month of delay gives Moscow breathing room Image
Read 10 tweets
Dec 16
1/12 China’s favorite US president:

Trump is extremely soft on China. The idea that he’s a China hawk is one of the biggest misconceptions.

He’s almost as soft on Beijing as he is on Moscow. Both back him for that reason.

Here are a few key examples👇 Image
2/12 Trump keeps threatening to pull US troops from allies in Asia, including South Korea and Japan.

He constantly pressures and criticizes those allies.

Undermining security guarantees sends one message: America is weak and unreliable Image
3/12 Trump allows NVIDIA to sell advanced H200 chips to China, tech that strengthens Beijing’s AI ambitions.

That’s one of the few areas where the US is ahead.

So much for “decoupling” Image
Read 12 tweets
Dec 8
1/9 Europe must face reality:

The US under Trump is waging a hybrid war against us, siding with our enemies, and turning from ally to adversary Image
2/9 Trump’s new national security strategy and his administration’s actions prove it.

They are not protecting Europe.

They are undermining us Image
3/9 They back anti-EU, pro-Russia, pro-China far-right parties.

They interfere politically to sabotage us and try to throw Ukraine under the bus while siding with Putin Image
Read 9 tweets
Dec 2
1/9 Ukraine cannot win this war by only playing fair when Russia never does.

Russia has more men, more money, and zero limits.

To end the war faster, Ukraine must go more asymmetric and bring the fight deeper into Russia Image
2/9 Why is this needed?

Just defending gives Russia no reason to stop.

Trading land for time is smart, but not enough. Ukraine needs to hit Russia where it hurts.

It already does with strikes, but it must do even more to show the world it still has cards to play Image
3/9 Ukraine’s current two-part strategy is to trade land for time and crush Russia’s economy with deep strikes.

It is good, but it needs acceleration.

The war must become even more costly, even faster, for Russia Image
Read 9 tweets
Dec 1
1/6 Belgium is helping Russia in its war against Ukraine.

How? It is the final obstacle preventing Ukraine from accessing Russia’s frozen assets.

Does Belgium want to be remembered as Russia’s helper? Image
2/6 Belgium is still blocking Russia’s frozen assets from being transferred to Ukraine, constantly finding new excuses to help Russia.

Does Belgium want to be remembered as the country that made Ukraine and Europe lose to Russia? Image
3/6 Belgium has been blocking this for months. It is the only country left doing so.

First, it used legal fears as an excuse. Europe worked to address those concerns, even with help from Norway. After that, Belgium's PM De Wever found new excuses, and Trump provided them to him Image
Read 6 tweets

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