Joni Askola Profile picture
Nov 8, 2024 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/8 The Kiel Institute, a well-known German think tank, has calculated that the cost of not supporting Ukraine is 10 to 20 times greater than the cost of offering that support Image
2/8 In recent months, there has been a rise in political voices in Europe and the US calling for a reduction or cessation of military support for Ukraine. The Kiel Institute has attempted to assess the approximate costs associated with this stupid idea. Image
3/8 Some argue that financial support for military assistance extends the duration of the war, which is both peculiar and ironic. This is particularly true since many of these same people advocate for Palestine in its conflict, a struggle that appears much less likely to succeed Image
4/8 The Kiel Institute evaluates the expenses associated with military support for Ukraine against the anticipated costs of withholding that support. It finds that providing support to Ukraine is significantly less expensive than not doing so. Image
5/8 To date, the average amount of German military support for Ukraine represents approximately 0.1% of Germany's GDP annually. According to their projections, ceasing support for Ukraine could lead to costs ranging from 1% to 2% of annual GDP over the next five years. Image
6/8 Consequently, discontinuing aid to Ukraine would lead to economic costs for Germany in the coming years that are 10 to 20 times higher than the costs of sustaining the current levels of military support. Image
7/8 Europe needs to take action and boost its assistance to Ukraine, whether through common debt, bilateral agreements, or even by using russia's frozen assets. Image
8/8 Sources:
Kiel Institute - The cost of not supporting Ukraine
@Erik2604 Image

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More from @joni_askola

Apr 27
1/8 The debate over Finland buying David’s Sling from Israel is loud and polarized.

To understand it, we must separate valid concerns from harsh military realities.

Here is why the decision was made and what the critics often miss: Image
2/8 Why buy it?

Our NASAMS batteries cannot stop ballistic missiles and have limited range.

To deter a neighbor like Russia, Finland needs to shoot down advanced threats.

We cannot afford to leave our skies vulnerable Image
3/8 Fair criticism exists.

It is valid to point out Israel's war crimes, illegal border expansions, and lack of support for Ukraine.

Israel is a complex partner with different interests.

These are real moral and strategic risks for Finland that we must acknowledge Image
Read 8 tweets
Apr 24
1/5 Trump has made the West incredibly vulnerable.

With the US distracted in the Middle East and munition stockpiles running low, Western deterrence is weakened.

A nightmare scenario of China and Russia launching coordinated attacks is forming.

Europe must step up faster Image
2/5 The blame for this weak deterrence falls heavily on Trump, and on Europe for not doing enough.

Trump is an unreliable, chaotic, and fundamentally weak leader.

His erratic approach to global security and the failed war in Iran have weakened the West Image
3/5 A nightmare scenario is actively forming right now.

Imagine if Russia and China coordinate to make their moves simultaneously.

With Washington absorbed by the Middle East and lacking the missiles for multiple wars, autocrats have a terrifying open window to strike Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 22
1/7 Palantir’s manifesto is a terrifying glimpse into tech-authoritarianism.

They aren't just selling software, but dictating global morality.

Who do they think they are?

Who elected Alex Karp and Peter Thiel to run the world?

Europe should stay away from Palantir Image
2/7 The manifesto openly calls for an AI arms race.

Karp claims the atomic age is over and the new era of deterrence is built on AI weapons.

They argue adversaries will build them anyway so we must do it first.

A tech firm is openly lobbying for an algorithmic cold war Image
3/7 Palantir demands a universal draft so everyone shares the risk of war, and calls to undo the pacifism of Germany and Japan.

Even if you agree, why does a tech company have a say?

A data broker shouldn't be rewriting global security and enforcing conscription Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 21
1/5 You want to minimize casualties and end Russia's war on Ukraine faster?

The only way to do that is to provide Ukraine with more long-range strike capabilities, including both Ukrainian and European ones.

Delaying only costs more innocent lives Image
2/5 We need to fund more Ukrainian missiles and drones and help them scale up production immediately.

At the same time we must produce more missiles of our own to hand over.

We absolutely need to step up the production of cruise missiles like the Storm Shadow Image
3/5 We must mass produce cheap cruise missiles like the American ERAM program.

We should get creative too.

We could pre-order Ukrainian weapons for our own militaries, let Ukraine use them to fight today, and only take delivery after the war is won Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 13
1/6 Will Orbán's defeat stop the rise of illiberalism in the West?

His fall is a massive geopolitical earthquake, but to understand its true global impact, we have to look at why he actually lost Image
2/6 Orbán did not lose because of his pro-Russian, treasonous stances.

He lost mostly because his domestic agenda completely failed.

Hungarians simply had enough of low economic growth, high inflation, and constant lies.

He promised a lot and failed to deliver Image
3/6 Even his signature social programs failed.

His highly publicized, expensive birth rate policies were a total failure.

He built a regime on the promise of national greatness, but regular citizens were left paying the price for his economic ruin Image
Read 6 tweets
Apr 9
1/8 The US is facing a strategic defeat in Iran despite "winning" militarily.

Terrible planning and a complete mismatch between military action and strategic goals led to this outcome, but the war may not be over.

A thread on where things actually stand 🧵 Image
2/8 Trump's planning was horrible.

The war started two months too late to help the Iranian people.

He had no troops ready to be deployed on the ground.

What did he think he would accomplish with just a bombing campaign? Image
3/8 You cannot win this kind of war and cause a real regime change without boots on the ground or without actively helping Iran's opposition.

Instead, we saw extremely inconsistent messaging from the administration.

Bombing alone was never going to bring down the regime Image
Read 8 tweets

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