Joni Askola Profile picture
Nov 8, 2024 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/8 The Kiel Institute, a well-known German think tank, has calculated that the cost of not supporting Ukraine is 10 to 20 times greater than the cost of offering that support Image
2/8 In recent months, there has been a rise in political voices in Europe and the US calling for a reduction or cessation of military support for Ukraine. The Kiel Institute has attempted to assess the approximate costs associated with this stupid idea. Image
3/8 Some argue that financial support for military assistance extends the duration of the war, which is both peculiar and ironic. This is particularly true since many of these same people advocate for Palestine in its conflict, a struggle that appears much less likely to succeed Image
4/8 The Kiel Institute evaluates the expenses associated with military support for Ukraine against the anticipated costs of withholding that support. It finds that providing support to Ukraine is significantly less expensive than not doing so. Image
5/8 To date, the average amount of German military support for Ukraine represents approximately 0.1% of Germany's GDP annually. According to their projections, ceasing support for Ukraine could lead to costs ranging from 1% to 2% of annual GDP over the next five years. Image
6/8 Consequently, discontinuing aid to Ukraine would lead to economic costs for Germany in the coming years that are 10 to 20 times higher than the costs of sustaining the current levels of military support. Image
7/8 Europe needs to take action and boost its assistance to Ukraine, whether through common debt, bilateral agreements, or even by using russia's frozen assets. Image
8/8 Sources:
Kiel Institute - The cost of not supporting Ukraine
@Erik2604 Image

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More from @joni_askola

Aug 9
1/4 Trump and Putin are negotiating behind Ukraine’s back, and the rumored terms are clearly unacceptable.

This isn’t about peace — it’s about making Ukraine look like the problem. Bad-faith diplomacy.

The good news? The illegally annexed regions are already on the tableImage
2/4 For years, pro-russians claimed those regions were non-negotiable. Now? They’re in play.

Even as Putin drags his feet, the myth of untouchable territory is cracking Image
3/4 russia’s slow, costly advances haven’t secured enough leverage to keep all illegally annexed regions off the table.

That’s not strength — it’s strategic weakness. And it exposes the bluff behind russia’s demands Image
Read 4 tweets
Aug 8
1/5 THREAD: Does Trump fear Putin — or is he just a russian asset?

His latest ”10-day deadline” for Putin ends today. And once again: nothing.

How long will we keep pretending Trump’s ultimatums mean anything?Image
2/5 Trump has gone from ”ending the war before reentering the White House” to ”24 hours,” then ”100 days,” then ”2 more weeks,” then ”50 days,” then ”10 days.”

Every time, he falls for Putin’s delay tactics. Every time, he does nothing Image
3/5 russia sees Trump’s weakness. Since his return to the White House, russian strikes on Ukrainian cities have escalated. No one fears him. He projects weakness, and Putin keeps gaslighting him — because it works Image
Read 5 tweets
Aug 7
1/11 THREAD: Why peace in Ukraine is impossible in the short run

russia cannot afford a just peace. It is far from achieving its strategic objectives and has made this useless war existential — for Ukraine, and for Putin’s regimeImage
2/11 Putin launched this unprovoked war not just to seize land, but to erase Ukraine’s sovereignty, culture, and history. He’s said it openly. This is a genocidal war. russia has committed war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and mass child abductions. Putin is wanted by the ICC Image
3/11 Stopping would mean accepting failure:

- Way less territory than in March 2022
- Over 1 million total casualties
- A united, armed, sovereign Ukraine

For Putin, that’s not peace — it’s defeat. Continuing the war blurs the reality and buys timeImage
Read 11 tweets
Aug 6
1/7 THREAD: Ukraine needs to mobilize and recruit more troops

russia is growing its army faster than it’s losing soldiers, adding 9,000 troops every month.

Europe must step up its aid to help Ukraine respond before it’s too lateImage
2/7 russia plans to form 10 new divisions by year’s end. Two are already active.

Despite high casualties, russia’s armed forces keep expanding.

Ukraine must expand its own — but it needs help to do soImage
3/7 Ukraine is reforming its military command structure — improving command, training, and coordination.

This is a major opportunity to build a stronger, more effective force.

But reforms need time, resources, and serious support Image
Read 7 tweets
Aug 5
1/5 THREAD:

Let’s be honest: Europe has been a terrible ally to Ukraine.

Too little, too late. We’ve let the US lead, looked away hoping the war would end, and failed to act with urgency.

But here’s the good news: it’s not too late to change thatImage
2/5 We have succeeded in some areas — like finding artillery shells and ramping up their production.

That shows we can act when we choose to.

Now we need to replicate that success across the board. No more excuses Image
3/5 Europe must massively scale up production of heavy equipment — especially stuff Ukraine doesn’t produce.

Long-term military aid isn’t just support for Ukraine — it’s a way to reboot our own defense industries and economies Image
Read 5 tweets
Aug 4
1/12 THREAD: Ukraine’s 10 Biggest Successes of the War

From battlefield victories to symbolic blows, Ukraine has defied expectactions and reshaped the war.

Here are 10 of its biggest successes 👇Image
2/12 🇺🇦 The Defense of Kyiv

Ukraine stopped russia’s elite forces at the gates of its capital.

The defense of Hostomel Airport was crucial.

This shattered Putin’s plan for a quick victory — and proved Ukraine would not fallImage
3/12 The 2022 Counteroffensives

Ukraine liberated thousands of km2 in Kharkiv and Kherson.

These operations stunned russia, reclaimed key cities, and proved Ukraine could take back occupied land — fast and decisivelyImage
Read 12 tweets

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