Joni Askola Profile picture
Nov 8, 2024 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/8 The Kiel Institute, a well-known German think tank, has calculated that the cost of not supporting Ukraine is 10 to 20 times greater than the cost of offering that support Image
2/8 In recent months, there has been a rise in political voices in Europe and the US calling for a reduction or cessation of military support for Ukraine. The Kiel Institute has attempted to assess the approximate costs associated with this stupid idea. Image
3/8 Some argue that financial support for military assistance extends the duration of the war, which is both peculiar and ironic. This is particularly true since many of these same people advocate for Palestine in its conflict, a struggle that appears much less likely to succeed Image
4/8 The Kiel Institute evaluates the expenses associated with military support for Ukraine against the anticipated costs of withholding that support. It finds that providing support to Ukraine is significantly less expensive than not doing so. Image
5/8 To date, the average amount of German military support for Ukraine represents approximately 0.1% of Germany's GDP annually. According to their projections, ceasing support for Ukraine could lead to costs ranging from 1% to 2% of annual GDP over the next five years. Image
6/8 Consequently, discontinuing aid to Ukraine would lead to economic costs for Germany in the coming years that are 10 to 20 times higher than the costs of sustaining the current levels of military support. Image
7/8 Europe needs to take action and boost its assistance to Ukraine, whether through common debt, bilateral agreements, or even by using russia's frozen assets. Image
8/8 Sources:
Kiel Institute - The cost of not supporting Ukraine
@Erik2604 Image

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More from @joni_askola

Jan 15
1/7 Trump is no isolationist:

He is a show interventionist, a cowardly form of imperialist interventionism that is also meant to entertain the world Image
2/7 Trump's entire campaign was built on the lie that he would end wars and stop regime change operations.

It has been a year since he promised to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours and the fighting continues Image
3/7 While he appointed isolationists to his administration, his actions tell a different story.

He claims to have ended eight wars but he hasn't ended any. In reality it looks more likely that he will start eight new ones before his term is over Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 13
1/8 Why JD Vance is a greater threat to the American experiment than Donald Trump.

A thread on the Dark Enlightenment, eyeliner, and the end of the West🧵 Image
2/8 Trump may be the worst and most traitorous president in US history, but JD Vance is a far more calculated threat.

Trump is erratic. Vance is a disciplined, smart, and well-organized opportunist ready to dismantle democracy with precision Image
3/8 The PayPal Mafia has one foot in the White House door by installing Vance. Tech oligarch Peter Thiel effectively owns him.

Their goal is clear: move Vance into the presidency to serve their personal interests and finish the job Image
Read 8 tweets
Jan 11
1/7 Putin doesn’t want you to know this:

Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine has now lasted longer than the Soviet Union’s war against Nazi Germany in WWII.

By this stage of that war, Soviet troops were already in Berlin.

Today, Russia is still struggling to take Chasiv Yar Image
2/7 Russia has been trying to conquer the Donbas for 12 years, and the rest of Ukraine for nearly four of those.

Despite going all in and receiving help from partners, Russia controls less land now than it did in March 2022, one month into the invasion Image
3/7 The cost?

Over a million Russian casualties.

And after all that Russia still hasn’t achieved its strategic goals. It is far from controlling the Donbas let alone Ukraine.

This is a failure so massive it will be studied in military academies for decades Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 7
1/5 Europe still treats unmanned systems like a niche.

Meanwhile, Russia already has an 80k-man strong unmanned systems branch that it plans to double in size in 2026.

If we do not scale up fast, we are handing Moscow an advantage that could cost us our survival Image
2/5 Russia now has 80k troops dedicated to unmanned systems and plans to double that number in 2026.

That is the size of a mid-tier European army, and it is about to get twice as big.

The gap keeps widening, and it will come back to bite us Image
3/5 The gap keeps widening. Ukraine and Russia are all in on drones and unmanned tech.

Europe still acts like this is a side project, a bonus.

If Russia attacked an EU country tomorrow, we would struggle for months before catching up.

That would cost us lives and territory Image
Read 5 tweets
Jan 7
1/7 Right now, we do not have a Coalition of the Willing.

We have a Coalition of the Unwilling, pretending to plan for the future while ignoring the present.

That needs to change if Europe wants to survive Image
2/7 Yesterday, the so-called Coalition of the Willing signed papers on deploying European troops to Ukraine after the war.

Sounds bold, right? Except the war is far from over, and real negotiations have not even started Image
3/7 This commitment does nothing to give Russia an incentive to stop the war.

Worse, Europe has not even dared send troops to Western Ukraine during the war, or respond to Russia’s hybrid attacks.

That kills credibility for any future security guarantees Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 6
1/6 Trump’s threat to seize Greenland isn’t just reckless. It’s traitorous.

Almost everything he does benefits Russia and China.

This move forces Europe to panic about Greenland instead of focusing on Ukraine, which is exactly what Moscow and Beijing want Image
2/6 Trump is the most traitorous president in US history.

Epstein’s emails show Jeffrey Epstein helped Russia blackmail Trump.

That could explain why Trump refuses to pressure Russia even as Moscow rejects his ceasefire proposals and keeps waging war Image
3/6 His latest stunt in Venezuela already pushes the world toward spheres of influence, giving Russia and China endless “whataboutism” ammo.

But Greenland is worse. It diverts Europe’s attention from Ukraine at the most critical moment Image
Read 6 tweets

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