Joni Askola Profile picture
Nov 8, 2024 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/8 The Kiel Institute, a well-known German think tank, has calculated that the cost of not supporting Ukraine is 10 to 20 times greater than the cost of offering that support Image
2/8 In recent months, there has been a rise in political voices in Europe and the US calling for a reduction or cessation of military support for Ukraine. The Kiel Institute has attempted to assess the approximate costs associated with this stupid idea. Image
3/8 Some argue that financial support for military assistance extends the duration of the war, which is both peculiar and ironic. This is particularly true since many of these same people advocate for Palestine in its conflict, a struggle that appears much less likely to succeed Image
4/8 The Kiel Institute evaluates the expenses associated with military support for Ukraine against the anticipated costs of withholding that support. It finds that providing support to Ukraine is significantly less expensive than not doing so. Image
5/8 To date, the average amount of German military support for Ukraine represents approximately 0.1% of Germany's GDP annually. According to their projections, ceasing support for Ukraine could lead to costs ranging from 1% to 2% of annual GDP over the next five years. Image
6/8 Consequently, discontinuing aid to Ukraine would lead to economic costs for Germany in the coming years that are 10 to 20 times higher than the costs of sustaining the current levels of military support. Image
7/8 Europe needs to take action and boost its assistance to Ukraine, whether through common debt, bilateral agreements, or even by using russia's frozen assets. Image
8/8 Sources:
Kiel Institute - The cost of not supporting Ukraine
@Erik2604 Image

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More from @joni_askola

Jan 2
1/7 Why appointing Budanov to replace Yermak as Zelensky’s chief of staff might be the right choice and what it means for Ukraine’s future 🧵 Image
2/7 Zelensky announced Budanov will succeed Yermak as chief of staff.

Yermak stepped down in November after years in the role. He was powerful and feared, which matters during war, but unpopular, seen as incompetent, and tied to corruption.

Change was inevitable Image
3/7 The shortlist included Shmyhal, Fedorov, Kyslytsya, Palisa, and Budanov.

Zelensky needed someone tough, respected, seen as having integrity, and more popular than Yermak while also competent. Not an easy task under massive pressure from Russia, Trump, and internal factions Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 2
1/9 Putin’s Russia has no plan in Ukraine.

After nearly 4 years of full-scale war, Russia is strategically losing but cannot afford to stop because stopping locks in defeat.

Fake stories about “strikes on Putin’s residence” show how desperate Moscow is Image
2/9 Russia launched this war to “demilitarize and denazify” Ukraine.

In plain terms that means regime change, a puppet government, a new constitution, and Russian troops turning Ukraine into a satellite state.

Today Russia is further from that goal than in 2022. How pathetic! Image
3/9 In March 2022 Russia occupied nearly 30% of Ukraine and fought near Kyiv.

Today after 4 years, over a million casualties, mobilization, and help from allies including North Korean troops, Russia holds about 20%.

That is a miserable failure.

Map: @TheStudyofWar Image
Read 9 tweets
Dec 30, 2025
1/9 A new class of people has become the biggest threat to democracy, freedom of speech, human rights, and humanity as a whole.

Who are they?

Tech oligarchs Image
2/9 On Trump’s inauguration, a group of tech oligarchs were present, celebrating.

These tech billionaires with political influence are not champions of freedom.

They are enemies of democracy, ready to back any side, even fascists, if it serves their interests Image
3/9 Why did they support Trump?

Because Trump was useful. He promised deregulation, tax cuts, and chaos, perfect conditions for oligarchs to grow richer and more powerful. He can be bought. He gives them more power.

They even own his VP Image
Read 9 tweets
Dec 28, 2025
1/10 China is indirectly at war with Europe.

By massively supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Beijing has made itself an enemy of Europe.

China is the biggest enabler of the genocide Russia is committing in Ukraine, and it does not get nearly enough hate for it Image
2/10 When Russia launched its full-scale invasion, it lost most access to Western markets.

China stepped in as Russia’s lifeline, buying huge volumes of energy to keep Moscow afloat Image
3/10 Energy purchases were just the beginning.

China sees Russia as a strategic partner and proxy to weaken Europe and the West.

Russia is doing China’s dirty work, and Beijing is paying the bill Image
Read 10 tweets
Dec 21, 2025
1/12 We are so back!

Evil forces around the world have started to struggle in 2025, giving hope for a better future.

The tide is turning.

Let’s hope they struggle even more in 2026 Image
2/12 The last few years felt hopeless.

Dictators grew aggressive. Russia invaded Ukraine. China rose as a global power. Trump attempted a coup in 2021 and returned in 2024. Tech oligarchs gained influence.

Post-truth made everything worse Image
3/12 Enemies of the West exploited chaos.

Russia expanded aggression. China pushed harder. Trump betrayed allies. Musk and Thiel used power for profit while cutting aid that cost thousands of lives.

It was bleak Image
Read 12 tweets
Dec 18, 2025
1/10 Ukraine must make sure Russians never feel in control.

It is going more and more asymmetric because playing fair will not win this war where Russia never does.

Ukraine must push this strategy even harder Image
2/10 Just defending gives Russia no reason to stop.

Trading land for time is smart, but not enough.

Ukraine is striking deep inside Russia and must scale up production even further and shift toward more asymmetric tactics to make the war far more costly for Russia Image
3/10 Ukraine’s two-part strategy is to trade land for time and crush Russia’s economy with deep strikes on oil and infrastructure.

It works, but it needs acceleration.

Every month of delay gives Moscow breathing room Image
Read 10 tweets

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