Reuben Rodriguez Profile picture
Nov 8 3 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Essential to understand the seasons of life. Stress is at its max from 35-55. Raising/affording children. Caring for sick parents. Society changing far past your formative yrs

Satisfaction precipitously bounces at 60 when (most) ppl become grandparents. Ppl vote accordingly 🧵
What happened to Millenials is equal parts inevitable + unique macro circumstances + Trump

Gender discontents occur here just as they do for Gen Z males (albeit more muted). Econ anxiety is MOST accrue as you approach prime-prime earning years (45-60)
This Millenial swing FEELS dramatic only b/c we were such hard Obama Ds

This mean reversion looks profound b/c the baseline was so elevated

Again, not thing away from Trump’s very unique and potent value prop…but part of it is how well it hits for this season of life

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More from @ReubenR80027912

Nov 1
Here is my prediction for Tuesday

Pop vote: Trump 47.4%, Harris 50.7%

EC: Harris 281, Trump 257

Senate: 52 R, 48 D

I have low-medium confidence in map but higher in top line Harris W. Let me explain Image
This election is odd b/c both parties got their “dream” opponent

Rs were thrilled to face Harris believing Biden’s gains with whites could not be recreated by Harris

Dems have based their entire platform on Trump animus, casually saying “If it had been Hayley she’d romp”
But ofc (and as I’ve said 100x) Trump was/is the only hope for Rs

His falling short in blue wall would almost certainly be better than Hayley/Desantis. Rs have assembled a MAGA male coalition that “respectful Rs” can’t lead
Read 6 tweets
Oct 28
My cousin is a couples therapist serving the well to do suburbs of NYC

At $375/hr, her book is *overflowing*

She, a Rutgers grad, makes 2x her Ivy League husband b/c she is solving the banal crisis wreaking havoc on UMC parents; the discontents of progressive marraiges
“Chores are sexy” is the worst piece of advice ever given

It gave the impression women are transactional…but they are NOT. Millenial males have taken on huge swaths of domestic & parental labor…w/ a (deeply misguided) implicit idea that there would be a “reward” for this
Counter intuitively, men “taking things off the wife’s plate” did not actually make women less stressed. Coordinating play dates, filling out forms for kids activities, staying in top of the school emails, being a “room parent” etc

All are a *result of women having more time*
Read 7 tweets
Jul 2
“Why aren’t more ppl afraid Trump will be a dictator??” the media wails

I have a theory: for 2 straight years these *same ppl* actively encouraged a national descent into a collective psychosis

Forgive us not summoning outrage after seeing what their “concern” produced🧵 Image
From March 2020 until March 2022, the DC was enthralled to a single man’s words

Daycares masked toddlers for 2 yrs

Crime rose parabolically. A new lexicon centered on “equity” was ubiquitous

All of this was deemed well & good by the same ppl gnashing teeth about Project 2025
I spent much of Covid astounded that ppl who had made so much of their career about resisting to alleged “security theatre of Bush & Co”

…would not just drop those principles but *enthusiastically* enforce enforce new edicts on themselves
Read 4 tweets
Jun 28
Now that we’ve plumbed the depths of Biden’s terrible night…let’s talk Trump

Trump WAS disciplined (for him) and stayed on message (immigration)

But Trump had ~6 hanging curves over the middle he barely connected on

He actually did this a lot in 16&20 but ppl forget 🧵
Trump’s extensive reliance on 3 adjectives (“the worst ever” “disaster” “most embarrassing”) felt a lot like a crutch

He nailed Biden ONCE on his Medicare line but was much more unfocused given the lack of coherence on Biden’s answers
Mostly I was amazed that Trump’s inability to bring ppl to his level felt so jarring

Trump *not once* explicitly said “The my trials are personal retribution carried out by Biden against ME, his political opponent”
Read 5 tweets
May 21
Ppl who succeed today are, 90% of the time, female coded

It’s neither good nor bad. But you need to accept this to understand our new social mores

@wanyeburkett buried the lead: meanness even in service to truth is unacceptable. Trump however, squares the circle 🧵 Image
I say it constantly but Trump’s cartoonishness lets him channel a reactionary id with a laugh vs upsetting chill if RDS/Cruz said it

This is his superpower

Most Rs have a sufficient EQ to know that you can’t just be a jerk…and thus Trump is best of both worlds
The “Pink collar” is real b/c everything today is consensus oriented. Zuck & Uber may have “moved fast and broken things” but as they matured into real companies, that gave way

The process & consensus oriented soft corporate world will domesticate every cowboy
Read 6 tweets
Nov 19, 2023
There is an answer to Gaza. You won’t like it but only way

Arab society remains strongly clan/family based. Patronage is 👑

Issues in Gaza *began* when GWB pushed for elections. Given a choice, Gazans picked terror vs patronage Fatah; we must return

A Gazan Gambino family 🧵
A few baseline facts:

1. MOST Gazans want to fight Israel forever & don’t accept Israel w/in ‘67 lines

2. Int’l peacekeepers will be a disaster; they’ll get killed and/or let Hamas Re-arm under their nose (as they did in Lebanon)

3. No one wants an Israeli Re occupation
So that leaves us w/ a Palestinian run Gaza but who?

Obvi not a jihadist/militant branch

Fatah has no pull & is something of a joke

But Israel/US needs something like a Hashemite; a native clan that can be bribed to keep the peace/not start wars
Read 5 tweets

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