Here is my prediction for Tuesday

Pop vote: Trump 47.4%, Harris 50.7%

EC: Harris 281, Trump 257

Senate: 52 R, 48 D

I have low-medium confidence in map but higher in top line Harris W. Let me explain This election is odd b/c both parties got their “dream” opponent

Rs were thrilled to face Harris believing Biden’s gains with whites could not be recreated by Harris

Dems have based their entire platform on Trump animus, casually saying “If it had been Hayley she’d romp”

My cousin is a couples therapist serving the well to do suburbs of NYC

At $375/hr, her book is *overflowing*

She, a Rutgers grad, makes 2x her Ivy League husband b/c she is solving the banal crisis wreaking havoc on UMC parents; the discontents of progressive marraiges

https://twitter.com/The_Feminist_TM/status/1850545474358444310

“Chores are sexy” is the worst piece of advice ever given

It gave the impression women are transactional…but they are NOT. Millenial males have taken on huge swaths of domestic & parental labor…w/ a (deeply misguided) implicit idea that there would be a “reward” for this

“Why aren’t more ppl afraid Trump will be a dictator??” the media wails

I have a theory: for 2 straight years these *same ppl* actively encouraged a national descent into a collective psychosis

Forgive us not summoning outrage after seeing what their “concern” produced🧵 From March 2020 until March 2022, the DC was enthralled to a single man’s words

Daycares masked toddlers for 2 yrs

Crime rose parabolically. A new lexicon centered on “equity” was ubiquitous

All of this was deemed well & good by the same ppl gnashing teeth about Project 2025

Now that we’ve plumbed the depths of Biden’s terrible night…let’s talk Trump

Trump WAS disciplined (for him) and stayed on message (immigration)

But Trump had ~6 hanging curves over the middle he barely connected on

He actually did this a lot in 16&20 but ppl forget 🧵 Trump’s extensive reliance on 3 adjectives (“the worst ever” “disaster” “most embarrassing”) felt a lot like a crutch

He nailed Biden ONCE on his Medicare line but was much more unfocused given the lack of coherence on Biden’s answers

Ppl who succeed today are, 90% of the time, female coded

It’s neither good nor bad. But you need to accept this to understand our new social mores

@wanyeburkett buried the lead: meanness even in service to truth is unacceptable. Trump however, squares the circle 🧵 I say it constantly but Trump’s cartoonishness lets him channel a reactionary id with a laugh vs upsetting chill if RDS/Cruz said it

This is his superpower

Most Rs have a sufficient EQ to know that you can’t just be a jerk…and thus Trump is best of both worlds

There is an answer to Gaza. You won’t like it but only way

Arab society remains strongly clan/family based. Patronage is 👑

Issues in Gaza *began* when GWB pushed for elections. Given a choice, Gazans picked terror vs patronage Fatah; we must return

A Gazan Gambino family 🧵 A few baseline facts:

1. MOST Gazans want to fight Israel forever & don’t accept Israel w/in ‘67 lines

2. Int’l peacekeepers will be a disaster; they’ll get killed and/or let Hamas Re-arm under their nose (as they did in Lebanon)

3. No one wants an Israeli Re occupation

Why liberals dominate:

The “Notorious RBG” meme was created in 2013

Catering to online progressives (created by a female law student) the meme hit the right notes; high brow but accessible

By 2016, Kate McKinnon was regularly playing RBG on SNL, a critical crossover

(1/4)

https://twitter.com/VP/status/1708958591833571783

SNL was a key part of icon building

Very accessible, upper middle brow, RBG was now 2 things: an iconic liberal judge…and a funny stand in to channel Ds righteous anger in age of Trump

By 2018 “On the Basis of Sex” was released, a rosy biopic aired frequently on CNN

2/4

The gas stove thing demonstrates the ecosystem of left activist (the right has 1 I’ll address in a moment)

Literally no one talked about the alleged dangers of gas stoves until ~Nov 2022

EnviroTwitter was abuzz about eco-friendly homes that used heat pumps vs central heating 🧵

https://twitter.com/Sen_JoeManchin/status/1612903995605147649

Two weeks ago ppl latched onto an obscure study demonstrating a link between natural gas stoves & childhood asthma

Fast forward to today, Sen Manchin’s replies are full of indignant ppl

Why?

Here's my #Election2020 5 things to know (maps at end)

1. DJT will win FL
As I've noted to @SeanTrende ppl confuse small margins for uncertain outcomes. DJT will lose Pinellas but D weakness in Miami Dade will bolster very narrow win

2. Biden will shock us all & win GA

(1/n) GA is demographically perfect for '20: the truly unbelievable growth of ATL & its suburbs make it ideal for the college white PMC D coalition to blaze run up insane margins. The psychological hit to GOP of losing GA will be massive

3. Both GAs go to runoff
How can this be?

@LPDonovan @JayCostTWS @SteveKornacki Want to make sense of VA turmoil? Even with all top state Dems in scandal, the GOP doesn’t have a chance in 2019. This tweetstorm will explain VA & 2019 politics in toto.
(Spoiler - its all Jim Gilmore's fault) The absolute explosion of DC as a job and cultural center of America is an earthquake that VA never quite addressed. State GOP policy succeeded wildly in bringing this to be, but also assured the death of the party, to be completed this year