🧵This is a post mainly for my followers from Europe, but it also applies to others outside the United States: Please understand how potentially transformative Donald Trump's landslide victory is. Set your biases aside--whether from the left or the right--and consider this.1/9
Analysts often engage in hyperbole about inflection points in history. But the election of Donald J. Trump as 47th President is really a moment when the trajectory America and the world have travelled for close to a quarter of a millennium has been fundamentally altered. 2/9
First, DT is only the 2nd US president after Grover Cleveland to be elected to two non-consecutive presidential terms. He was elected by the cross-section of American society: carried 47% of the Latino vote, doubled his support among black men, was supported by women & Gen Z.3/9
This election marks the end of the neo-liberal economic paradigm and globalization, for while offshoring expanded global wealth and made China a manufacturing powerhouse, it also gutted the industrial base in the US and undercut the once independent American middle class. 4/9
Noone can predict what the new economic landscape will look, but one thing is clear: The landslide election of Donald Trump means that globalization is over, and though it will be quite painful to pull out stakes and reshore/friend-shore our supply chains, it will happen. 5/9
The reelection of Donald Trump, who in 2016 was dismissed by the establishment as a one-off aberration, is a resounding affirmation that a profound shift among the electorate is underway. It's a repudiation of group identity politics and a return to individual citizenship. 6/9
The American nation has signaled once again that it prizes what unites us as a people over what divides us--reaffirming the irreducible function of the state to safeguard the security and prosperity for the people--the two core principles our elites seemed to have forgotten. 7/9
The second Trump administration has a historic opportunity to restore America’s national fabric by rebuilding our industry, our competitiveness and the traditional commitment to hard work and merit as the foundation of the American dream. And most of all our mutual trust. 8/9
We should once again focus on what unites us as a people, not what divides us. We should remember that we will prosper only if we return to the foundational "E pluribus unum." And remember that while our democracy is not perfect, we are far better than any alternatives. 9/End
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
🧵A few thoughts on US foreign policy as we enter the home stretch of the presidential election. Regardless of which candidate wins, the threats will remain. The incoming US administration will face a world more dangerous and fractured than at any time since the end of WWII. 1/9
Unlike in the aftermath of that war, when the United States commanded an absolute and relative economic and military advantage over every other major power in the world (and until 1949 a nuclear monopoly), today it must confront daunting challenges, both economic and military.2/9
Unlike during the Cold War when the United States faced the Soviet Union and its Warsaw Pact clients, the US has not one but four adversaries. The new “axis of dictatorships” includes China, Russia, Iran and North Korea – all intent on overturning the int'l security order. 3/9
🧵A brief posting on why we continue to get #Russia wrong: An often-repeated fallacy in DC when it comes to Russia (and academics reinforce it) is that Russia's pressure against the West is really about their security; pushing this alleged Western threat away from its borders.1/6
Not to put too fine a point on it: Anyone who argues that today the West constitutes a credible military threat to Russia should have his/her head examined. It is odd that when it comes to Russia our elites seem unable (unwilling?) to recognize the drivers of RUS expansionism.2/6
Why isn't anyone willing to ask how a tiny Duchy of Muscovy that barely survived on subsistence farming expanded into an empire spanning eleven time zones – all the while, of course, desperately defending itself from invasion. RUS "I'm threatened" line is repeated ad nauseam. 3/6
🧵I have written repeatedly about the devastating impact of offshoring and deindustrialization on America’s absolute and relative power position in the world. I stand by that diagnosis. But of late I’ve been asking why our relative decline has accelerated in recent years. 1/10
We’ve had three catastrophic failures of deterrence since 2022: Russia’s second invasion of #Ukraine; Hamas attacking Israel, America’s closest ally in the Middle East; and then Iran launching direct massive attacks on Israel. Ask yourself: What has accelerated this process. 2/10
In my view deterrence is failing because the US and Western allies have repeatedly communicated weakness and a lack of resolve. Our leaders vacillate and project uncertainty. We seem obsessed with escalation management and avoiding risk above all else. Our enemies see that. 3/10
🧵The #EU seems fixated on moving forward to build EU command structures and forces that are in effect going to take away from Europe’s ability to properly resource @NATO’s regional plans. Pushing yet again for Europe’s so called “strategic autonomy” is simply a bad idea. 1/7
@NATO allies are already struggling to man/equip the forces they pledged as part of the capabilities commitments tied to the regional plans they signed onto at the Vilnius summit. Building additional military structures in the EU, instead do resourcing @NATO makes no sense. 2/7
Replaying once again the same old tune of Europe’s “strategic autonomy” at a time, when the security of Europe continues to deteriorate rapidly, with a full-scale war raging in #Ukraine sends exactly the wrong message to @NATO, to the US government and especially Congress. 3/7
🧵A few thoughts on a discussion about deterrence I had last week. Over the past 3 years we have witnessed three instances when deterrence failed: first, Russia's second invasion of Ukraine in 2022; then Hamas attacking Israel; then Iran attacking Israel. The question is why? 1/7
Deterrence works when two things obtain: 1. you have the requisite capabilities to inflict devastating pain on the enemy, and 2. you have demonstrated that you have the will to do so. Clearly, the US has the requisite capabilities, but do we still have the will to act? 2/7
Consider the last three years: Despite US warnings, Russia invaded Ukraine again in 2022; then Hamas attacked Israel, America's closest ally in the Middle East; then Iran attacked Israel directly and openly for the first time on such a scale. Our warnings went unheeded. 3/7
🧵On this day in 1939, exactly 85 years ago, Nazi Germany invaded Poland. Some two weeks later Soviet Russia also attacked it from the East. The Poles fought bravely but were overwhelmed. France and Britain, Poland’s allies, declared war on Germany but did nothing to assist. 1/6
The German/Russian invasion of Poland started World War II-a war that cost millions upon millions of lives, leveled cities, caused untold suffering and when it was all said and done left Germany occupied and divided and all of Eastern Europe enslaved under Soviet communism. 2/6
Volumes have been written about the causes and consequences of WWII. To me there are two key lessons: (1) national security is the irreducible function of the state. In the end nothing can replace your own military readiness and your societal resilience—no treaty, no paper. 3/6