Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 9 15 tweets 4 min read Read on X
I did an interview yesterday (Friday 8 Nov 2024) with @esherifftv on the lawfare going on between the Biden Administration and @elonmusk SpaceX over the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR).

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Being a old DoD Quality staffer, I brought powerpoint slides.🤣

This 1st slide shows how the ITAR law defines what a "US person" is, versus the Dept. of Justice discrimination lawsuit claims under the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA).

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The second slide shows how "illegal exports" under ITAR includes 'foreign persons' - everyone not a 'US person' - seeing a ITAr controlled technical data package inside the USA counts as a 'export' to the nation an asylee or a refugee comes from.

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The Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) did not modify the ITAR law.

DoJ claims that:

"...asylees and refugees can access export-controlled information and materials without additional government approval, just like U.S. citizens and lawful permanent residents."

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...are not supported by the ITAR law as written.

I was a quality subject matter expert for DCMA Texas training quality specialists in how to audit defense contractors for ITAR compliance.

It took me all of 20 minutes to find the relevant laws for those slides.🤷‍♂️

5/
SpaceX's lawyers used those passages to get a Federal judge to bounce the DoJ lawsuit.🤣

To give you an idea of how kafkaesque the ITAR laws are, there are two ways to avoid ITAR penalties with an asylee or refugee as an employee.

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1. You go through a process with the Commerce Department for permission ahead of time, every time, for every ITAR covered part data package, which that takes 30 to 60 days and involves ITAR compliance lawyers.

For which, see an example link:



7/federal-lawyer.com/import-export-…
2. You use a special DoD exemption covering the defense trade between the USA and Canada.***

There are not any Canadian asylees or refugees.🙄

***There is a similar exemption being created for Australians under the AUKUS nuclear sub agreement.

8/
SpaceX using an asylee or refugee without doing those things incurs a criminal penalty of 20 years of imprisonment and $1 million of penalty per export per ITAR covered part tech data.

For example, say a Raptor 3 rocket engine with, notionally, 200 parts is seen by a...

9/
...'foreign person' incurs 4,000 years of prison time and $200 million in penalties for every person involved _AND_ for SpaceX.

These extreme penalties were due to the 1998 Loral missile tech transfer to China scandal.

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globalsecurity.org/wmd//library/n…
This Loral technical transfer waiver Pres. Clinton approved to get the Long March 3 as a cheap space launcher for Loral also gave China the tech for a reliable bus for multiple independently-targetable reentry vehicles.

OOPSIE!


11/ en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Marc…Image
This scandal was very much a part of the GOP attempt to impeach President Clinton.

Then Speaker Gingrich didn't pursue those charges, rumor control has it, due to then GOP major fundraiser Haley Reeves Barbour getting Taiwanese campaign contributions for the elder Bush.

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Said Taiwanese being frontmen for the Chinese Communist Party.

Hence the whole Monica Lewinsky deal in lieu of real charges on China.

The Federal bureaucracy did its best to ignore ITAR for about 20 years...until it was figured out there was budget in ITAR compliance.

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It was dealing with that ITAR compliance bureaucracy that got me involved with training DCMA Texas quality specialists...

...and in spotting DoJ lawfare for @esherifftv.

14/14 End
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More from @TrentTelenko

Nov 11
The idea of Russia substituting artillery tubes with 122mm rockets fails on a couple of counts - accuracy and propellent mass.

These two things are related.

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The inaccuracy of the 122mm Grad rocket system is proverbial.

A full salvo of 40 rockets landing at 20 km range spreads over an area of up to 600 m x 600 m.

It is a wasteful weapon for tube artillery missions and is highly locatable when firing.

2/
characterisationexplosiveweapons.org/studies/annex-…Image
The Ukrainian SSU has made that vulnerability abundantly clear recently in showing 16 Grad launcher truck kill videos.

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mil.in.ua/en/news/ssu-ne…
Read 10 tweets
Nov 10
Ukraine's SSU used long range FPV drones with radio repeater drone to do counter battery for killing sixteen GRAD 122mm multiple rocket launchers.

21st century artillery counter battery🧵
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mil.in.ua/en/news/ssu-ne…
This YouTube video shows all the "greatest hits" with the SSU first person view (FPV) drones.

Ukrainian drone operators were able to steer the FPV's into the loaded rocket launcher where "cope cages" could not cover.


2/
This is a Ukrainian Armed Forces’ Matrice 300 RTK drone with relay antennas for extended range FPV drone counter battery strikes. ⬇️

Photo credits: Charitable Foundation “SOS palīdzība Ukrainas armijai”

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Read 5 tweets
Nov 5
Western media & political commentary are dominated by "doomers" predicting short & long term outcomes on the 'inexhaustibility' of Russia's personnel & equipment pools, despite overwhelming evidence that Russia is struggling badly.

Reality:
Russia is in a crisis of loss. 🧵
1/ See: https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/confirmed-russian-battlefield-equipment-losses-1730799222.html
The following are the things I've been tracking for some time:

1. The Russians are losing an infantry division every week to 10 days in terms of soldiers at a rate of between with a 1,100 to 1,700 and associated equipment.

2/ Image
2. The Russian artillery is getting shorter ranged over time from losing the ability to make barrels and liners for 152mm guns. We are seeing literal WW2 122mm artillery pieces, presumably from North Korean stocks, in the Donbas.

3/
Read 15 tweets
Nov 3
This Warzone article is an example of one of the things that has been driving me bug house nuts watching the US Military deal with drones.

Recognizing the utter collapse of analytical rigor compared to the "Big Five"
1/
...procurement programs and the MLRS artillery rocket system in the late 1970's-to-early 1980's.

The post 1973 Arab Israeli War US Army understood the idea of "the logistical costs of a stowed kill."
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The US Army kept the 105mm on the M1 in production so long because the depleted uranium (DU) 105mm "Long Rod" APFSDS could kill a early T-72 and you could carry 55 rounds versus 40 rounds for a 120mm gun firing a tungsten APDS or early DU APFSDS round.

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Image
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Read 47 tweets
Oct 4
Thermite drones inside a bunker are all sorts of evil beyond burns.

My WW2 flame weapon research found that CO, carbon monoxide, fills the chemical bonds that O2 does in the lungs of air breathing fauna.

That means once CO hits those bonds in your lungs, you suffocate.

1/
What killed Imperial Japanese soldiers in WW2 "without a mark" inside bunkers was carbon monoxide poisoning, not a lack of O2.

Once you get enough CO in the lungs on the O2 chemical bonds.

No further O2 can get into the bloodstream and you suffocate.

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I ran across that fact in a trip report of a US Army Chemical Warfare Service (CWS) medical doctor sent to Leyte to take blood samples from IJA corpses that died from flame weapons.

It didn't work out and the CWS used goats in bunkers hit with flamethrower weapons to get the CO poisoning medical data.

3/3Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 4
You all realize that this Ukrainian thermite drone innovation just made every field fortification design by every army in the world obsolete?

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Any trench w/o overhead cover and any passage or firing slit that is big enough to shoot a crew served heavy weapon or vehicle out of is also big enough for a FPV drone spewing thermite to fly into.

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Every field fortification manual ever written by every military in the world is obsolete and will have to be re-written with an eye to placing curtains, nets or wire screens across firing slits and doors to keep out small drones.

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Read 4 tweets

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