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Nov 10, 2024 โ€ข 21 tweets โ€ข 11 min read โ€ข Read on X
๐ŸงตI postponed this thread multiple times, but with Reuters' recent publication, itโ€™s timely now:

Let's examine and compare reporting sources (GMO vs. Gaza MoH) and analyze fatalities identified by Gaza MoH.
TL;DR: Women and children account for 54.7% of fatalities, not 70%.
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ยฒ ๐Œ๐ข๐ง๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฒ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐‡๐ž๐š๐ฅ๐ญ๐ก of Gaza (MoH): Publishes daily fatality and injury records, and every two months, releases a verified list with ID, age, and names. See attached examples of their reports.

Updates are done via their telegram channel.
t.me/MOHMediaGazaImage
ยณ ๐†๐จ๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ๐ง๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐Œ๐ž๐๐ข๐š ๐Ž๐Ÿ๐Ÿ๐ข๐œ๐ž (GMO):
A Hamas-run office reports casualty and damage stats, partially aligning with MoH some totals but providing its own breakdowns.
Updates are via a dedicated Telegram channel, with unspecified sources.
t.me/mediagovpsImage
โด This analysis utilizes the most recent name list from the MoH (updated for the end of August)

The differences between MoH and GMO data will be explained, followed by further analysis of the published list, which contains 34,344 verified names out of 40,738 reported (84%) Image
โต On September 15, Gaza MoH released its latest updated list of 34,344 names with details including ID, source, full name, gender, age at death, and date of birth.
The file covers identified fatalities from 07-Oct-23 until 31-Aug-24.
Link to the PDF file
t.me/MOHMediaGaza/5โ€ฆ
โถ Let's compare data breakdown per MoH and GMO.
While the MoH data, based on a list of names and personal details, shows 55% women and children versus 45% men, the GMO's breakdown indicates 69% women+children and 31% men.
GMO doesn't publish men's count, but it's easy to calc. Image
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โท The GMO reports cover all claimed 40,691 deaths, though itโ€™s unclear where they sourced their breakdown, as the Ministry of Health has detailed records for only 34,344.
May be, the 70% women+children by Reuters somehow stems from GMO data, matching its 69%. Image
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โธ It can easily be proven that the information from the GMO is fabricated.
Out of all 40,691 reported deaths, they have 2,806 less reported men compared to the number of ๐ˆ๐๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ข๐ž๐ men in the 34,344 list by the Gaza Ministry of Health. Image
โน GMO, not only are underreporting men, but they also assert that the entire ~15% gap (40,691 - 34,344) from the Ministry of Health's count consists solely of women and childrenโ€”a claim that is clearly implausible.

Now, let's proceed to analysis of the Ministry of Health file Image
ยนโฐ Analysis of the MoH data by age and gender shows far more male than female casualties.
The vertical axis represents age, and the horizontal axis shows casualties per age.
A 2021 Gaza population chart, included for comparison, indicates an equal pre-war male-to-female ratio. Image
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ยนยน
Each record in the file has a verification source from the MoH. About 16% (6,897 entries) rely on family reports likely for Palestinians missing or not recovered from rubbles.
A special MoH form is used to report these cases.
Another 4% approved by special committee. Image
ยนยฒ Children (0-17): Analysis of child casualties shows a relatively balanced distribution of boys and girls up to age 11, aligning with their population average.
However, as age increases, the proportion of boys rises significantly, diverging from their pre-war population ratio. Image
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ยนยณ Itโ€™s best left to war experts to explain the reasons behind this: but it could be that older boys face a higher risk of casualties in conflict situations, or perhaps it indicates childrenโ€™s involvement in combat roles. Image
ยนโด As someone who monitors events in Gaza daily, I observe that the high number of child casualties largely results from bombings. Often, these strikes not only impact the IDFโ€™s intended target but also result in the deaths of close family members, including their children. Image
ยนโต In analyzing family and clan losses, the Najjar clan has the highest number of casualties, though I lack enough data to normalize these numbers with clan/family sizes. Image
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ยนโถ I donโ€™t have sufficient information to validate the MoH file easily, as it requires access to the Gaza civil registry.
However, certain things can be briefly checked: ID values can be verified using a specific formula.
There are 304 invalid records, primarily for ages 0-5 Image
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ยนโท I identified 103 records marked as female, though their first names are male (e.g., Mohammed). It's unclear where the discrepancy originates. There may be additional cases like this in the file, but a native Arabic speaker would likely perform this analysis more accurately. Image
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ยนโธ I noticed that about 7% have likely incorrect birthdates, with a default date of January 1 assigned, mainly for those born in the 1950s and 1960s. Image
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ยนโน There are also a few duplicate entries, such as in the well-known Abu Al-Qumsan family case, where twin infants were killed days after birth appear twice in the MoH list with invalid IDs.
Such cases can not be automatically verified due to partial name matching in the file. Image
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ยฒโฐ For clarity, my brief check shows that verified combatants are included in the MoH list; on the other hand, there are killed Hamas members who are not found in the file.
I also checked a few names of those who died from non war accidents and did not find them in the file
ยฒยน Cross-referencing names in the file is likely a topic for a separate discussion.
With my limited resources and time, Iโ€™d hope that NGOs or major media would challenge organizations like the GMO and MoH a bit more.
Though it appears to be less of a priority for them.
The end.

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More from @MiddleEastBuka

Mar 6
๐Ÿงต When I saw this poster, I decided to revisit the day this Hamas member was killed. I wanted to thoroughly analyze the incident in which he died and determine how many uninvolved people lost their lives because of him (along with him). Follow the thread >> Image
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2. Let's return to the event where Jihad Qazzar was eliminated on August 4th.
The following day, a list of casualties was publishedโ€”23 names in total, including Jihad himself. As expected, he was not labeled as a Hamas member. Just a famous Quran teacher.
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3. Jihad was even described as a member of the Egyptian aid organization Ayadi Masr, alongside other members who, as it later turned out, were also identified as militants. This organization still operates in Gazaโ€”who knows how many of its other members are affiliated with Hamas Image
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Feb 18
๐Ÿงต So, who are the 735 palestinian prisoners released in this exchange deal?
I analyzed a Ministry of Justice dataset containing their personal details, charges, and detention periods. While I lack time to investigate their individual cases, the data provides a broad overview Image
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ยฒ The published information does not include details of specific terror events but contains convictions, detention period dates, organizational affiliation, and personal details.
Below is a brief explanation of relevant fields.
URL: gov.il/he/Departmentsโ€ฆImage
ยณ Approximately 1,800 Palestinians are expected to be released, mostly captured during the Gaza war.

The Ministry of Justice list (735 names) includes West Bank and Gaza prisoners jailed before the war, with a small number arrested after October 7.
Read 12 tweets
Jan 21
1/ Operation in Jenin: A Pale Shadow of the War in Gaza and "The Day After"

One of the main criticisms of Israeli leadership, including in Israeli media, is the claim that Israel has not planned for the "day after" the fall of Hamas. A few thoughts and parallels >> Image
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2/ The "day after" is often cited as one of the reasons for the prolonged war, which has yet to achieve its main goal โ€“ the elimination of Hamas. Many believe that if Israel presented an alternative to Hamas, everything would miraculously be resolved >>
3/ Various alternatives to Hamas have been proposed: local clans, foreign Arab forces, and, of course, the Palestinian Authority (PA). However, it is clear that none of these entities could effectively function in Gaza unless Hamas's military wing is destroyed. >>
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Oct 31, 2024
๐€ ๐˜๐ž๐š๐ซ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐ˆ๐ƒ๐… ๐†๐ซ๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ ๐Œ๐š๐ง๐ž๐ฎ๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ ๐‹๐จ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ (๐†๐š๐ณ๐š ๐’๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐ฉ)
The below analysis focuses on IDF losses during the ground operation, which began on Oct 27, 2023, and covers the first year of the war, documenting 355 announced losses up to Oct 27, 2024 > Image
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ยฒ ๐‘บ๐’๐’–๐’“๐’„๐’†๐’” are primarily based on publications by the IDF spokesman and an official page with basic details about the fallen soldier. Additionally, I supplemented information from newspaper articles, channels of military reporters, podcasts, and family members. https://www.idf.il/%D7%A0%D7%95%D7%A4%D7%9C%D7%99%D7%9D/%D7%97%D7%9C%D7%9C%D7%99-%D7%94%D7%9E%D7%9C%D7%97%D7%9E%D7%94/
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ยณ Disclaimer:
The analysis is statistical and should be interpreted carefully (e.g., itโ€™s not normalized by population or unit duration in Gaza).
As an OSINT project, errors may exist due to sources' nature.
A file with full data and source links will be provided at the end. Image
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Read 20 tweets
Oct 9, 2024
๐Ÿงต After two weeks of data collection, I would like to share an analysis of the data collected:
- Summary.
- Geographic analysis.
- About source of the funeral publications.
TL;DR:
- 194 killed #Hezbollah operatives.
- Dataset is partial.
- Data represents Southern Lebanon only Image
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2/
The collected dataset contains names of Hezbollah members, funeral town, home towns.
When home town is not specified explicitly, the funeral town is considered as home town.

Since 23-Sep, there are 194 funeral announcements.
Sometimes, they are published retroactively. Image
3/ The towns analysis reveals that all of the mentioned operatives are exclusively residents of southern Lebanon.
In addition, it can be seen that residents of border villages are buried in the northern towns of the South region.
Attached heatmaps per home and funerals towns Image
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Read 8 tweets
Sep 8, 2024
ยน The IDF operation in northern Samaria, West Bank, has ended.
In total, according to the #Palestinian MoH, 36 Palestinians were killed during 9 days of operation.
In the thread, I will present an analysis of the identities of the deceased.
TL;DR At least 86% - combatants



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ยฒ 24 out of 36 were officially declared as belonging to resistance organizations. Some of them were claimed by several organizations
Hamas: 7
PIJ: 12
Fatah: 9
Also, I found social media evidences regarding another 7 who fought the IDF but were not announced by any organization.

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ยณ 5 out 7 unofficial combatants were declared by organizations as Mujahideens, with no clear affiliation.
Regarding the other 2, I've found strong evidence in social media: picture posing with rifle, funeral flag, IDF video showing him throwing of explosive devices.


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Read 6 tweets

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