🧵 IDF Combat Fatality Cause
IDF Combat Losses During 21 Months of Ground Operations in the Gaza Strip

This thread presents an updated analysis (as of June 27, 2025) of the causes of death among 433 IDF soldiers killed during the ground operation in the Gaza Strip, which began in late October 2023.
For 421 of them, 97%, the cause of death was identified by me, based on publicly available sources.
This is a particularly challenging metric to track, as the IDF PR does not publish such details.

The data was carefully compiled from news reports, Telegram channels, podcasts, and interviews with families and relatives. >>


2/ When looking at the final breakdown, two primary causes of death stand out: IEDs and RPG/anti-tank fire.
Each accounts for around 30% of cases — together making up approximately 60% of all IDF fatalities in the ground campaign.

Another notable cause is accidents and friendly fire, responsible for roughly 11% of the deaths.
An additional 7% were killed by sniper fire.

P.S. There is only one case of fatal ATGM usage in this war. All other cases related to RPGs only.

🧵 (Updating) Thread: Iranian Army & IRGC Losses in the Israel-Iran War – Based on Social Media.

Killed Personnel: 1 to 10

10 Air Defense Unit operators of the 3rd Hamzeh Division (IRGC), Urmia, Western Azerbaijan. >>

2/ 22 IRGC Missle Launcher operators, Lorestan Province

Killed Personnel 11 to 32

🧵 [Long and Updating Thread]

25-APR-2025
Muhammad Baraka Ayish Al-Amur
Member of the Military Council in the Al-Mujahideen battalions.

In the strike, his wife, two sons, and five daughters were killed. Total 9


² 24-APR-2025

Imad Al-Baba "Abu Ashraf".
Leader of the Military Intelligence Service.
The Mujahideen Brigades.
Killed in a targeted tent in Al Zawaida (Central Camps)
Another family member (men) and child were killed.

🧵Mourning Posts as a Clue: Identifying Combatants in the Gaza War:
This article aims to explain methods that can be used to identify combatants based on eulogies and mourning posts on social media
Operational security is a distinctive and fascinating aspect of the war in Gaza. Unlike Hezbollah or Palestinian counterparts in Judea and Samaria, residents of Gaza typically refrain from disclosing any affiliation with armed groups until after the fighting has ended.
There are several reasons for this phenomenon: blaming Israel exclusively for civilian deaths, hiding the fact that militants operate from within civilian areas, and avoiding revenge attacks against militants’ families. 1/ 2. Platform Behavior Patterns
When trying to determine combatant affiliation through social media, different platforms serve different roles. The landscape typically breaks down as follows:
Facebook is where family members and close relatives post - and it's the primary platform to monitor.
This is where you'll find personal mourning posts not meant for external audiences, often shared within family or clan-specific groups.
These posts may include emotional tributes, photos, and sometimes indirect clues about the deceased’s role or background.
Twitter tends to feature posts from broader community members rather than immediate family.
Mentions of mujahid (مجاهد) are usually intentional and appear once the person’s identity is confirmed or if they were publicly known.
Telegram typically comes after identification has been shared on Facebook or Twitter.

🧵 When I saw this poster, I decided to revisit the day this Hamas member was killed. I wanted to thoroughly analyze the incident in which he died and determine how many uninvolved people lost their lives because of him (along with him). Follow the thread >>

https://twitter.com/MiddleEastBuka/status/1897649035348963545

2. Let's return to the event where Jihad Qazzar was eliminated on August 4th.
The following day, a list of casualties was published—23 names in total, including Jihad himself. As expected, he was not labeled as a Hamas member. Just a famous Quran teacher.

https://x.com/tamerqdh/status/1820093836707717389?t=qo2Y2PtRoFz-hhKwJRP8kA&s=19

🧵 So, who are the 735 palestinian prisoners released in this exchange deal?
I analyzed a Ministry of Justice dataset containing their personal details, charges, and detention periods. While I lack time to investigate their individual cases, the data provides a broad overview

https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1891222989858816440

² The published information does not include details of specific terror events but contains convictions, detention period dates, organizational affiliation, and personal details.
Below is a brief explanation of relevant fields.
URL: gov.il/he/Departments…

1/ Operation in Jenin: A Pale Shadow of the War in Gaza and "The Day After"

One of the main criticisms of Israeli leadership, including in Israeli media, is the claim that Israel has not planned for the "day after" the fall of Hamas. A few thoughts and parallels >>

https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1881654341473284582

2/ The "day after" is often cited as one of the reasons for the prolonged war, which has yet to achieve its main goal – the elimination of Hamas. Many believe that if Israel presented an alternative to Hamas, everything would miraculously be resolved >>

🧵I postponed this thread multiple times, but with Reuters' recent publication, it’s timely now:

Let's examine and compare reporting sources (GMO vs. Gaza MoH) and analyze fatalities identified by Gaza MoH.
TL;DR: Women and children account for 54.7% of fatalities, not 70%.
⬇️

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1854817401314894134

² 𝐌𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐇𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐡 of Gaza (MoH): Publishes daily fatality and injury records, and every two months, releases a verified list with ID, age, and names. See attached examples of their reports.

Updates are done via their telegram channel.
t.me/MOHMediaGaza

𝐀 𝐘𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝐈𝐃𝐅 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐞𝐮𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐋𝐨𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐬 (𝐆𝐚𝐳𝐚 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐩)
The below analysis focuses on IDF losses during the ground operation, which began on Oct 27, 2023, and covers the first year of the war, documenting 355 announced losses up to Oct 27, 2024 >
² 𝑺𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒄𝒆𝒔 are primarily based on publications by the IDF spokesman and an official page with basic details about the fallen soldier. Additionally, I supplemented information from newspaper articles, channels of military reporters, podcasts, and family members.

🧵 After two weeks of data collection, I would like to share an analysis of the data collected:
- Summary.
- Geographic analysis.
- About source of the funeral publications.
TL;DR:
- 194 killed #Hezbollah operatives.
- Dataset is partial.
- Data represents Southern Lebanon only

https://twitter.com/MiddleEastBuka/status/1841022538744205738

2/
The collected dataset contains names of Hezbollah members, funeral town, home towns.
When home town is not specified explicitly, the funeral town is considered as home town.

Since 23-Sep, there are 194 funeral announcements.
Sometimes, they are published retroactively.

¹ The IDF operation in northern Samaria, West Bank, has ended.
In total, according to the #Palestinian MoH, 36 Palestinians were killed during 9 days of operation.
In the thread, I will present an analysis of the identities of the deceased.
TL;DR At least 86% - combatants

https://twitter.com/MiddleEastBuka/status/1829941587721293938

² 24 out of 36 were officially declared as belonging to resistance organizations. Some of them were claimed by several organizations
Hamas: 7
PIJ: 12
Fatah: 9
Also, I found social media evidences regarding another 7 who fought the IDF but were not announced by any organization.

[Fatalities Analysis]
¹
The IDF strike on a prayer hall in Al Taba'een School, Gaza City

First messages regarding the strike occurred at 04:43 AM.
35 min later, palestinians
announced about the death of 40 (tl;dr most closest number)

9 min after, they claimed 100 martyrs.

https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1822323839004516762

²
The only official statement was released by Hamas Goverment Media Office ~2h after the strike with a number of 100 martyrs.
5h after the strike, the first name list was published with 19 names in it.
40m later, palestinians published the list with 32 names.

🧵 ¹ MoH Gaza published an updated list of identified names and details of the deceased palestinians up to the end of June.
The list contains 28,185 names. 9,715 less than what was claimed by the same MoH at the end of June.
Very brief analysis reveals several anomalies. ⬇️⬇️

²
According to the Gaza Goverment Media Office (Hamas local authorities), there were 37,765 'martyrs' overall since Oct 7.
They also provide a specific count per child and women (which allow us to calculate men).
Let's compare the published name list counts vs. Hamas claimed.

🧵So we saw that there are no women's names on the list of the killed at the Nuseirat UNRWA school, despite the statements of MoH Gaza (14 children, 9 women).
Now, we will check how many children actually died in an airstrike based on social media analysis. Scroll down⬇️⬇️

https://twitter.com/MiddleEastBuka/status/1798768810104901660

2/
Overall, I succeed to find the names or/and faces of 22 palestinians that are claimed to be killed at the Nuseirat school strike.
Here, you can see the faces and names of 13 out of 22
(1-7, 9-14, 17 in the names list)
There are 2 children among them (num 12 and 13)⬇️⬇️

1/ IDF strike at Tal-El-Sultan fatalities stands on ~35 (CNN reports)
I want to share my observations about this night and how this event was covered by palestinians.
I will use the internal Hamza sub-channel, which focuses on field reports only ⬇️
t.me/hamz0831/125855 2/ The first report about the strike occurred at 20:47.

You can click the link at the first post and follow the events at Gaza Strip that night by yourself.

The channel is focused only on field reports and covers the whole Gaza Strip events. ⬇️

1/ How much OSINT can we extract from the video of the helicopter crash site at East Azerbaijan Province, Iran?
In the video, we can see a person filming a playback captured from air.

The metadata extraction of the video shows 03:06 AM GMT or 06:36 AM Iranian time (UTC+3.5) ⬇️

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1792394111091458484

2/ On the media player app, we can see the file name, which discloses the manufacturer - the DJI drone.

DJI_20240520102208_0001_S.MP4

The date of the file is today, the time is 10:22AM, which is not possible and probably shifted to drones' default country time.⬇️

1/5 Geolocation | Disproof of Palestinian lies about Nasser Hospital mass graves.

Fake claims by @tamerqdh about #IDF-caused massacre.

In Jan/Feb, this exact place was used by palestinians as temporary cemetry.
I found a burial video of 30+ persons on 28 January. >>

https://twitter.com/NemoAnno/status/1782153035109617834

2/5
The date of the video is Jan-28.

The geolocation is exactly the same place as provided by @NemoAnno for the new video.

The backyard of Nasser Hospital Compound, south area of the hospital

31.345943, 34.291734

Source:


@GeoConfirmed t.me/work2873/173086

1/3 Geolocating October 7 events

The body of a murdered, allegedly women, hostage being transported in the trunk of a car at Jabalia, Northern Gaza.
31.5349936, 34.5026681

Special thanks to @WachtelDan for assistance with arabic

Source:

@GeoConfirmed t.me/Nuseirat1/17407

2/3 Video of the hostage body transport.

Published at Nuseirat channel at 10:10 at the morning of Oct-7.