$TSLA – Can we all stop debating the fundamentals. It is all one big game of punting 0DE options creating tremendous spikes of buying pressure. A look 8-Nov-24 where Zero Day call options equaled 166% of the stocks volume and total call options volume equaled 321%! 1/10
$TSLA – The above chart shows how as the share price increases the volume progressively moved to higher and higher Zero Day strikes after a massive push with the $300 and $305 at the open and the $317.5 and $320 dominating the mid-day flow. 2/10
$TSLA – Every major leg up in the stock was on the back of heavy options volume. Also note increased activity in the minutes post a large jump as retail presumably chase a move that has already happened (Theta decay is fast for Zero Day so you can’t easily hold for hours). 3/10
$TSLA – The Top 10 options alone were 126% of the stocks volume and $ Delta ($ Notional volume x Option Delta) was 70% of the stocks volume. Looking at $ Net Delta (Call-Put) it was $61bn vs. $47bn stock volume traded or 131%. The $ Delta is $ economic exposure to the stock. 4/10
$TSLA – The $320 call was almost $10bn of $ Delta or over 20% of the $ stock volume and the $310 and $315 each traded $6bn of Delta. 5/10
$TSLA - The stock (top) vs. options (bottom) volume during the first hour. Note the 2.4mn options volume from the Top 10 Zero Day options during the first two minutes of the day where the stock traded 1mn shares then kickstarting the 2-3% move up in minutes. 6/10
$TSLA – As the price increased fast > $312.5 strikes came in play with little Open Interest, but it did not hold back the Contract Volume as the OI was churned 30-40x in hours vs 0.3x 1-year average. Contract Volume traded 4x the 1-year average. 7/10
$TSLA – Looking at the first 6 minutes of trading volume in the Zero Day options, the $300 strike traded 98% of Open Interest and the $305 strike 176% also equivalent to more than 100% of the volume in the underlying stock! 8/10
$TSLA – The whole day by minute for the stock & the top 10 Zero Day options – identical volume profiles. The lower chart (black line) shows the 250% options volume % of stock volume for the first few minutes, and it never does it go below 100% cumulatively during the day. 9/10
$TSLA – Last week while the Open Interest did not change much overall, the Delta adjusted OI alone of $240-$350 strikes of the 0DE increased from 0.15 to 0.85 with a doubling on 8-Nov equal to a 12mn underlying shares increase (Delta hedging) or almost 10% of volume. 10/10 END.
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$TSLA the AUTO OEM Part 4! 60% downside to 2027 Adj. EBIT? Here is my argument. I was right 18 months ago. Not financial or investment advice. A 44🧵Tweet.
Sections:
A) Market and historic performance
B) Gross margins
C) Forecasts vs. consensus and FCF
D) Valuation Benchmarking
$TSLA – In Mar-2023 I posted the below🧵which was more accurate than anything posted by @garyblack00 @Icannot_Enough @TeslaLarry @farzyness @TeslaPodcast @TSLAFanMtl @CuriousPejjy . Please post your 2025-2027 Adj. EBIT & EPS estimates below.
$TSLA On 8-May-23 @ICannot_Enough posted projections that were spectacularly wrong. My OLD estimates were in-line for 2023 but looks too bullish for 2024.
A look at Social Media Advertising (ex. China) and the impact of TikTok. Could $META 2025E Revenue & EPS be 10/20% too high? 1/5
1) Growth slowedown: 15% to 3% 1Q->4Q-22 2) 4Q-22 was flat excl. TikTok 3) TikTok is ~44% of growth in 22 4) TikTok ~halved METAs % growth in 2022
Social Media Growth (as defined) has slowed significantly during 2022 despite TikTok. (Note the quarterly split of TikTok's revenue are estimates as is its FY numbers). 2/5
Everybody has seen growth slow. The Social Media Market (as defined) grew ~8% in 2022 but ~4% excl. TikTok. In 4Q-22 it was flat excl. TikTok. 3/5
$TSLA the AUTO OEM! - Dissecting the three major bull case inconsistencies and why 2027 EBIT of $40bn could have ~60% downside. Tweet B1) to B6) & D3), D4) has data you probably have not seen before. Not financial or investment advice. A 23 Tweet🧵
Sections:
A)Background to the $TSLA Jan price cuts
B)Overestimating the addressable market
C)Units growth while maintaining flat ASP
D)Gross & EBIT Margin expanding
A1) In the US $TSLA unit sales peaked in 1Q-22 and lead to the price cuts in Jan-23 to expand the addressable market.