$TSLA – Something does not add up with 2Q-25 deliveries in the US. Tesla reported 384k deliveries around 30k ahead of expectations. As we know China (133k) and EU (55k) & ROW (46k) to a high degree, the implied “plug” is US deliveries at ~150k! A 🧵1/8 $TSLA – The below is a source of monthly US delivery estimates compared to @TroyTeslike estimates shown quarterly. In 2023 it was accurate but recently a bit less so but it is directionally correct. 2/8

$TSLA will underperform the MAG 6 on average over the next 5 & 10 years. It sells hardware, has no pricing power, low incremental margin, low gross margin and low ROIC. Autonomous and Humanoid will not change this. Inherently a low quality business on a P/E of ~250x. A 🧵1/25 $TSLA structurally has a low gross margins as it is a hardware company, has no pricing power, inflationary input costs and competes in commoditized markets (automotive, energy storage). Autonomous and Optimus might increase it to low 20% in the long run. 2/x

Revenue growth at $PLTR is mostly lacking high growth software peers at similar stages of revenue (year of $1bn revenue = Y1). This helps frame the valuation comparison in this thread. Forward years based on consensus estimates. A🧵1/9 $PLTR – Once you reach $5bn revenue (end 2026 for PLTR) nobody has managed to sustain growth much about 25% p.a. for more than ~ 5 years. Growth at PLTR will thus likely slow at that time. 2/9

$TSLA – Can we all stop debating the fundamentals. It is all one big game of punting 0DE options creating tremendous spikes of buying pressure. A look 8-Nov-24 where Zero Day call options equaled 166% of the stocks volume and total call options volume equaled 321%! 1/10 $TSLA – The above chart shows how as the share price increases the volume progressively moved to higher and higher Zero Day strikes after a massive push with the $300 and $305 at the open and the $317.5 and $320 dominating the mid-day flow. 2/10

$TSLA the AUTO OEM Part 4! 60% downside to 2027 Adj. EBIT? Here is my argument. I was right 18 months ago. Not financial or investment advice. A 44🧵Tweet.

Sections:
A) Market and historic performance
B) Gross margins
C) Forecasts vs. consensus and FCF
D) Valuation Benchmarking $TSLA – In Mar-2023 I posted the below🧵which was more accurate than anything posted by @garyblack00 @Icannot_Enough @TeslaLarry @farzyness @TeslaPodcast @TSLAFanMtl @CuriousPejjy . Please post your 2025-2027 Adj. EBIT & EPS estimates below.

https://x.com/LostFundamental/status/1631432184643846144

A look at Social Media Advertising (ex. China) and the impact of TikTok. Could $META 2025E Revenue & EPS be 10/20% too high? 1/5

1) Growth slowedown: 15% to 3% 1Q->4Q-22
2) 4Q-22 was flat excl. TikTok
3) TikTok is ~44% of growth in 22
4) TikTok ~halved METAs % growth in 2022 Social Media Growth (as defined) has slowed significantly during 2022 despite TikTok. (Note the quarterly split of TikTok's revenue are estimates as is its FY numbers). 2/5

$TSLA the AUTO OEM! - Dissecting the three major bull case inconsistencies and why 2027 EBIT of $40bn could have ~60% downside. Tweet B1) to B6) & D3), D4) has data you probably have not seen before. Not financial or investment advice. A 23 Tweet🧵 Sections:
A)Background to the $TSLA Jan price cuts
B)Overestimating the addressable market
C)Units growth while maintaining flat ASP
D)Gross & EBIT Margin expanding