Thread by @oonuch

What drives ordinary citizens to want their country to join or stay in the European Union (EU)?

🧵 it’s being a democrat or becoming one!

“Fighting for Europe: The EU's Democratic Pull Phenomenon in #Ukraine, #Poland and #Belarus”

OPEN ACCESS @JCMS_EU

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jc…

What drives support for joining/staying in the EU?

Whilst material benefits dominate explanations of support for #EU accession and membership,

I show BEING A DEMOCRAT drives citizens in countries as disparate as #Ukraine, #Poland & #Belarus to support EU accession/membership.

Employing national surveys in #Ukraine, #Poland & #Belarus this article shows that

(a) not only is a SHIFT to supporting EU accession accompanied by citizens also MOVING towards supporting democracy in Ukraine;

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jc…

Employing national surveys in #Ukraine, #Poland & #Belarus this article shows that

(b) the EU democratic pull phenomenon can also be identified amongst citizens of EU neighbourhood countries & EU member states.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jc…

Following the start of Russia’s all out war by 2023 respondents who note that democracy is the best system of government for Ukraine = 20 percentage points more likely to also hold a pro-EU position at the 99% statistical sig level.

But this Democratic Pull of the EU is of course not new and not simply the product of war … it’s been there all along. We seeing it in data before 2014. When people become democrats they also then come to support EU accession.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jc…

Looking at Ukrainians in 2019 - being a democrat = the strongest predictor of the desire to join the EU, increasing the likelihood by 15 percentage points at 99% sig level.

There’s no statistically sig effect of economic factors (ego-tropic evaluation or remittances).

But are we sure that it’s those that MOVE to DEMOCRACY then MOVE to DESIRING EU ACCESSION?

YES! Using panel data (thankU @MOBILISEproject @ESRC)

I show that becoming a democrat between 2019 & 2021 increases the likelihood of adopting a pro-EU stance by 15 percentage points.

We see the same thing in Ukraine using panel data (again thankU @MOBILISEproject @ESRC) between 2021 and 2022 becoming a democrat between 2021 and 2022 is the sole predictor increasing the likelihood of moving to supporting EU integration by 12 percentage points! And…

Same thing in Ukraine IN ALL OUT WAR TIME using panel data (again thankU @MOBILISEproject @ESRC) between 2022 and 2023 BECOMING A DEMOCRAT SINCE RUSSIA’S ALL OUT INVASION = 14 percentage point increase in the likelihood of also supporting EU accession!

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jc…

But OK so this is those Ukrainian democrats who (as I wrote in an earlier @JoDemocracy article are Rallying Around Democracy a topic we also cover The Zelensky Effect)

Some may wonder if this patterning is unique to Ukraine.

BUT does this also apply to EU member states?

YES👇

The @MOBILISEproject @ESRC also includes data from #Poland allowing us to explore this EU democratic pull phenomenon.

Being a supporter of democracy increases the likelihood that a Pole holds a pro-EU position by 12 percentage points at the 99% sig level

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jc…

This may surprise our Poland watchers @notesfrompoland @BDStanley @pawelkowalpl @anneapplebaum (see above)

No statistical evidence of any economic pull or push factors in support for EU membership in #Poland!!! But being a democrat is always statistically significant!

But that is NOT ALL … BEING AN AUTOCRAT in Poland - saying that the best system for the country is a “strong man rule” - DECREASES the likelihood that an individual will want Poland the STAY IN THE EU!

What about in the EU neighborhood? I tested this finding in Morocco Belarus

What might we expect in a full autocracy – one that recently has not taken any formal steps towards closer economic or political ties with the EU? One where we have seen some economic decline but also autocratic entrenchment recently.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jc…

Might we expect that in an autocracy, (a) will we not see a democratic pull phenomenon? (b) if we see any pull phenomenon will it be an economic 1?

I argue that a case like Belarus can provide us with leverage to test the theory (not in art. but tested finding in Morocco too)

Being a democrat elevates the likelihood that a #Belarusian agrees with #Belarus joining the EU by 22 percentage points at a 99% sig level

Neither viability of accession nor the war threat alone are significant enough factors to compete with the democratic pull of the #EU.

But interestingly, in the case of autocracies(!)we see an economic grievance effect (which in robustness check become more clearly associated with general government dissatisfaction - typical for an autocracy).

Even here, the EU’S DEMOCRATIC PULL EFFECT IS DOUBLE IN SIZE.

The consistency of the findings about the democratic pull phenomenon of the EU is truly remarkable, & the magnitude of the effect in all the models is substantial. Most notably, this effect of the democratic pull phenomenon remains consistent across highly diverse contexts.

When considered collectively, these findings from various countries, each offering a distinct test case, consistently support the hypothesis that the primary allure of the EU lies in its normative democratic ethos.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jc…

Being or becoming a democrat consistently ranks amongst the most influential factors in predicting an individual's inclination to favour their country's accession to or continued membership of the EU.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jc…

It is crucial to recognise that the EU's democratic values and ethos are what captivate citizens, both within and beyond its borders. Further exploration into how the EU can capitalise on these strengths is also warranted.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jc…

Discourses about what is attractive about the EU must extend beyond notions of stability and economic development, as increasingly authoritarian states and hybrid autocracies can also offer economic stability, and it is not always clear that the EU can do the same in all periods.

To this end, it is worth noting that in the past, the EU has made co-operative economic deals with autocratic regimes, often without fully acknowledging the vulnerabilities such arrangements can create within its own system.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jc…

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