Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 11, 2024 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
The idea of Russia substituting artillery tubes with 122mm rockets fails on a couple of counts - accuracy and propellent mass.

These two things are related.

1/
The inaccuracy of the 122mm Grad rocket system is proverbial.

A full salvo of 40 rockets landing at 20 km range spreads over an area of up to 600 m x 600 m.

It is a wasteful weapon for tube artillery missions and is highly locatable when firing.

2/
characterisationexplosiveweapons.org/studies/annex-…Image
The Ukrainian SSU has made that vulnerability abundantly clear recently in showing 16 Grad launcher truck kill videos.

3/
mil.in.ua/en/news/ssu-ne…
The real problem with 122mm rockets versus 122mm and 152mm shells is the mass of the propellent versus a rocket.

The most common Russian 122mm rocket is the 9M22 which masses out at ~66 kg.

4/ Image
The 9M22 122mm rocket contains 6.4kg of TGAF-5 explosive comprising 40% TNT, 40% RDX, 17% aluminium powder and 3% phlegmatizer.

Its propellent mass is 23.8 kg based on the table below, which I pulled from a study on adding a guidance kit to the 9M22 rocket.

5/ Image
A 122mm shell for a D-30 gun has a 3.528 kg bursting charge and a 3.6 kg propellent charge.

A 9M22 rocket has about twice the explosive of a 122mm artillery shell but uses six times the propellent to deliver it.

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Assuming it takes five 122mm shells to hit a Ukrainian target using a Russian drone for spotting and a 40 round volley of 122mm rockets for the same target.

The 122mm shells use 17.64 kg of explosives and 18 kg of propellent to service the target.

7/ Image
The 122mm Grad rocket volley uses 256 kg of explosives and _944_ kg of propellent.

That is enough explosives for 72 122mm shells worth of bursting charges and 262 122mm shells worth of propellent.

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Any Russian attempt to directly substitute 122mm rockets for 122mm artillery shells will amount to a 1/100th structural disarmament of the Russian "God of War" because of the lower accuracy and explosives/propellant inefficiencies involved.

9/9
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More from @TrentTelenko

Jul 27
Given what happened to DoD procurement after the 2nd Clinton Adm. annihilation of military specifications, which killed the configuration mgt, systems engineering & production engineering disciplines in defense contractors.

I shudder to see what DOGE's AI will do.

Mil-spec🧵
1/
I've written about this issue for seven years starting on the Chicagoboyz weblog with a post titled:

"The 737 MAX and the Death of MIL-STD-499A SYSTEM ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT
March 24th, 2019"

2/
In 2020 I was talking how the decay of systems engineering skills are affecting US Navy nuclear sub safe programs due to the lack of good systems engineering talent in Defense contractors.

3/
Read 14 tweets
Jul 24
So, the Thai Army is now ahead of the US Army in using heavy multi-copter drones?

This underscores the vulnerability of the West to drones due to its bureaucratically bloated and infinitely slow military procurement systems.

1/
The snail like pace of Western military procurement versus the Ukrainian fielding of an all-aspect stealth shaped OWA drone in less than a couple of years is very noticeable.

2/
Read 4 tweets
Jul 22
On the morning of 20 July 2025, a AFGSC airman at Minot AFB took his M18, still inside it's issued holster; and placed it on a desk.

It then went off, struck him in chest, and killed him

AFGSC issued a halt order on 21 July 2025 for use of M17/18 Modular Handgun System.

1/ Image
As an ex-DoD procurement official, that letter is a procurement killing hammer.

This is going to hit SIG Sauer like a moderate sized asteroid in terms of DCMA corrective actions requests or "CAR."

2/ Image
This AFGSC halt use order letter will be grounds for a level three corrective action request (CAR).

A DCMA level III CAR is defined as follows:

"A Level III Corrective Action Request (CAR) issued by the Defense Contract Management Agency (DCMA) is a serious action taken when there are significant contractual nonconformities.

It is directed to the supplier's top management and is just one step below the possibility of contract suspension or termination.

This type of CAR serves as a management tool to address critical issues that need immediate attention."

3/Image
Read 11 tweets
Jul 22
During WW2's combined bomber offensive, unitary incendiary bombs were found to be five times as effective as high explosive, mass for mass, at destroying buildings & structures.

But the bomber barons were hung up on the tonnage delivered, not their effects.

Success Metrics🧵
1/
A single 100lb M47 bomb (left) was as effective as a M65 500lb general purpose HE bomb.

The Bomber Mafia in ETO fought incendiaries, as their bombers lacked the bomb station multiple release modifications for most of WW2, as the mass of bombs dropped was a 'success metric.'

2/ Image
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After the bomber barons -finally- surrendered to the realty of incendiaries operational effectiveness.

Avoiding any USAAF responsibility for the horror that was Dresden cemented the burying of the effectiveness of USAAF firebombs used in the ETO.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Jul 18
This:

"Russian aircraft manufacturers have failed to create analogues of foreign bearings and electronic components for aircraft, said Anatoly Gaydansky, CEO of Aerocomposite."

Also applies to railway cassette bearings for Russian wagons and locomotives.

Russian Railway🧵
1/ Image
Low friction roller bearings are a major technological strength of the West. 

They are the difference between Rolls Royce jet engines lasting thousands of hours and Russian or Chinese jet engines lasting half as long.

Rail roller bearings are different in their application

2/
...but the computer control software for SKF & Amsted co-production machine tooling that Russia used is proprietary. That software left Russia in April/May 2022.

Russian rail system has been doing the whole 'just in time' inventory game

3/
Read 13 tweets
Jul 16
The following is a serialized post from Strategypage -dot- com on the disastrously bad US Navy leadership decisions on fleet maintenance & where they have left US National Security.

"Surface Forces: USN Maintenance Mess

1/
July 11, 2025: The U.S. Navy is no longer able to maintain or repair its ships. In an earlier economy move, all the navy ship repair and maintenance facilities were sold off. The worst aspect of this was the loss of skilled shipyard workers. ...

2/
... The older ones were retiring and the navy did little to recruit and train replacements. Now, as the United States strives to expand its navy and repair and upgrade current ships, it finds that the resources are lacking. There are no easy solutions.

3/
Read 14 tweets

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