The real problem with 122mm rockets versus 122mm and 152mm shells is the mass of the propellent versus a rocket.
The most common Russian 122mm rocket is the 9M22 which masses out at ~66 kg.
4/
The 9M22 122mm rocket contains 6.4kg of TGAF-5 explosive comprising 40% TNT, 40% RDX, 17% aluminium powder and 3% phlegmatizer.
Its propellent mass is 23.8 kg based on the table below, which I pulled from a study on adding a guidance kit to the 9M22 rocket.
5/
A 122mm shell for a D-30 gun has a 3.528 kg bursting charge and a 3.6 kg propellent charge.
A 9M22 rocket has about twice the explosive of a 122mm artillery shell but uses six times the propellent to deliver it.
6/
Assuming it takes five 122mm shells to hit a Ukrainian target using a Russian drone for spotting and a 40 round volley of 122mm rockets for the same target.
The 122mm shells use 17.64 kg of explosives and 18 kg of propellent to service the target.
7/
The 122mm Grad rocket volley uses 256 kg of explosives and _944_ kg of propellent.
That is enough explosives for 72 122mm shells worth of bursting charges and 262 122mm shells worth of propellent.
8/
Any Russian attempt to directly substitute 122mm rockets for 122mm artillery shells will amount to a 1/100th structural disarmament of the Russian "God of War" because of the lower accuracy and explosives/propellant inefficiencies involved.
9/9
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In WW2 according to US Army Medical department statistics, the US Army ground forces in NW Europe and the Mediterranean took 65% of their casualties from Artillery.
In 2025, Russia is taking 75% from drones.
2/
Drones are now more lethal in Ukraine than artillery was in the WW2, the most artillery heavy war in human history to date.
Drones have replaced, and then some, tube artillery, rockets and mortars as the indirect fire "King of Battle."
Strategypage -dot- com has a new article out on the decline of Russian that civil infrastructure that makes Frederick Lanchester smile.
Russian Civil Infrastructure Attrition🧵
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Text from the article:
"Russia wants to end the Ukraine War via negotiations with the United States. This will work if done from a position of strength. The current Russian situation is weak and getting weaker.
2/
...Russian forces in Ukraine are stalled and too weak to launch another offensive, even a small one.
It will get worse. The Russian economy is starting to collapse in some or many areas because of disinvestment.
3/
The semiconductor industrial base is the foundation of 21st century economic & military power.
The USSR only ever produced single detector element technology like Long Wavelength Infrared (LWIR) Infrared Line Scan (IRLS) or scanning infrared Search and Track (IRST) like those on the MiG-29 Fulcrum A.
2/
The USSR never produced any of the classic nodding or spinning mirror LWIR Forward Looking Infrared (FLIRs) sensors that the US introduced during the Vietnam war.
In fact there is no evidence Russia was able to sustain any of the large Soviet semiconductor industry.
3/
The vast majority of US military aid to Ukraine was in fact spent inside the USA to replace vastly overpriced by the Biden Adm. National Guard & Air Guard surplus weapons.
Spending aid money buying Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (JLTV) to replace NG surplus Humvees
...was just one of the aid grifts @JakeSullivan46 NSC crew played to pretend they were helping Ukraine while not offending Russia & buying US Defense contractor kit.
Pres. Trump is literally parroting Russian reflexive control scripts from Biden Adm.
This should not be a surprise as I've pounded on the fact for 2 years that Russia has mapped & fed to each specific US tribal & professional demographic the data to eat up messages/memes Russia wants those groups to believe.
This @sambendett thread here makes Russia seem like a poor kid looking through a candy store window at the "candy" of Ukrainian ground resupply drones.
I mean, seriously, Russia is now introducing a camel transport corps because the Russian startups and big defense contractors cannot produce supply UGV's at scale to deliver potable water to front line troops.
This 🧵by @GrandpaRoy2 demonstrating the increasing battlefield obsolescence of tube artillery in the face of fiber optic fiber guided FPV drones is a useful jumping off point the following:
66% of RuAF AFV's & equipment killed in Jan 2025 were victims of drones
Back in November 2024 I did a long thread on how drones were an "effectiveness revolution" on the battlefield and we would see drones displacing other battlefield weapons because of it.