Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Lyn Alden Profile picture
@LynAldenContact
Nov 13 • 6 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
I keep seeing the chart float around of 23 million government employees, as though that's directly cuttable by the new Department of Government Efficiency.

Keep in mind that 3 million of those are listed as federal and the other 20+ million are state/local.

A thread. 🧵 Image
Image
Now, quantifying the actual federal workforce is actually nontrivial.
-Are we talking civilian, or military too (1.3M)?
-Are we including postal workers (550k)?

This WH report says 4.3 million federal workers with all of this, with breakdowns.
whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
But wait, there's more. There are also somewhere in the ballpark of 4 million federal contractors. The number fluctuates.

In 2023, $759 billion was committed to them.
gao.gov/blog/snapshot-…
So we're talking 8-9 million federal employees+contractors, with some variance for what exactly we should include.

For every 1 million $150k-$200k/year jobs you cut, that's only $150-$200 billion/year saved.

To put that in context, federal interest expense is now $1.1 trillion. Image
Most federal spending is Medicare, Social Security, Defense, Veteran Benefits, Interest, and other hard-to-cut things.

Meanwhile, official GOP 2024 platform calls for no cuts to Social Security or Medicare.

Likely won't cut Defense, Vets, or Interest much either... Image
Image
In other words, while I'll be monitoring policies over the coming years, my current view on the matter continues to be:

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Lyn Alden

Lyn Alden Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @LynAldenContact

Lyn Alden Profile picture
Nov 7
Along with Steve Lee @moneyball and Ren @0xren_cf, I co-authored a paper that analyzes the process and risks of how Bitcoin upgrades its consensus rules over time, from a technical & economic perspective.

Here's a 🧵

You can check it out here:
github.com/bitcoin-cap/bc…
Here's the v1.0 PDF version:
github.com/bitcoin-cap/bc…
Bitcoin is hard to change by design, and the methods of how it changes have evolved as the network has grown.

In the paper, we analyze what consensus is, and how different types of entities have different incentives and powers during the course of a potential consensus change.
Read 7 tweets
Lyn Alden Profile picture
Dec 12, 2023
CPI for November came in this morning. Headline numbers continue to bounce around above 3%, while core continues to gradually decrease. 🧵
Image
Image
Some people assume that the end of inflation means prices go down, but instead it just means the rate of change of prices decreases to the target rate.

There's permanently more money in the system, and prices in aggregate are permanently higher. Image
Currently, China has weak domestic consumption but strong production/exports, the United States has decent consumption but weak production, and Europe's domestic consumption *and* production are weak.

This weakness weighs on energy prices and other materials.
Read 4 tweets
Lyn Alden Profile picture
Dec 9, 2023
Since the start of 2020, the United States has taken on $10.7 trillion in new public debt (i.e. accumulated deficits).

That's about $80k per household in four years.

Has your household received that much in deficit spending? Some did, but likely not yours. Image
Some households received hundreds of thousands or even millions in stimulus.

And a sizable chunk of them were wealthy law firm or investment firm owners, or and various rather large business owners (100s of employees) that were not even disrupted by the pandemic/lockdowns. Image
Some households received indirect deficit expenditure. For example, if your employer received it, it may have positively affected your job.

But most analysis (e.g. see above tweet) showed that most of the money didn't go to that. It instead pooled near the top.
Read 6 tweets
Lyn Alden Profile picture
Dec 7, 2023
Four monies, personified:

-The Golden Monarch
-Lord "Uncle" Sam
-The Dragon Emperor
-Archmage Nakamoto
🧵 Image
The Golden Monarch economically defeated all opposition and reigned supreme for thousands of years. Now ancient and wise, and having seen the entirety of history, he contemplates his diminishing role in the modern world and wonders if he could have done anything differently. Image
Lord Sam, usurper of gold, known merely as “the Uncle” to many, sits at the Cantillon Source and wields the mighty dollar. Liberating in his youth, now oppressive in his age. His monetary power reigns supreme but shows increasing signs of decadence, decay, and defiance. Image
Read 6 tweets
Lyn Alden Profile picture
Dec 6, 2023
Often I see people assume that with full-reserve banking, there would be no credit.

But full-reserve banking just means that loans are funded by time deposits rather than demand deposits. In other words, there is duration-matching between assets and liabilities. 🧵
In that arrangement, bank customers that need to be able to access their money on demand, get full-reserve liquidity.

Customers that want to earn a yield with risk can put some money into time deposits, which the bank can use to make loans of similar duration or less.
With fractional-reserve banking (which all countries do today), there is a duration mismatch which can lead to liquidity problems.

Demand depositors are told they can withdraw at any time in banking hours, and yet most of their money is loaned out in illiquid loans/securities.
Read 5 tweets
Lyn Alden Profile picture
Oct 24, 2023
The #Bitcoin side of my feed has tremendous comment liquidity- I write something about it and get an *immediate* response by the hundreds or more.

Bear/Bull- I haven't seen this in years. It's different than sentiment; it's volume. Comment numbers, broadly.

Here's a thread. 🧵
Yes, I'm structurally bullish.

No, I don't know what it will do in the next six months.

Yes, institutions increasingly understand this more than you do. If you've not followed this in detail, you're going to follow eventually.

Chart via @PositiveCrypto Image
Bitcoin is the leading digital money. As information began coalescing online, eventually value did too, but it took longer.

The internet browser was created in 1994. Bitcoin was launched in 2009.

Bitcoin is half as old as the browser now, and it keeps growing in adoption.
Read 9 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(