Can desalinated water deliver a future of infinite water?
Yes!
• It's cheap
• It will get even cheaper
• Limited pollution
• Some countries already live off of it
We can transform deserts into paradise. And some countries are already on that path:🧵
Crazy fact:
Over half of Israel's freshwater is desalinated from the Mediterranean!
And the vast majority of its tap water is desalinated too!
And it costs less than municipal water in a city like LA!
It's not the only country. Saudi Arabia is the biggest desalinator in the world. 50% of its drinking water is desalinated. It's 30% in Singapore, a majority of water in the UAE...
What if we applied this, but at scale across the world?
Look at all these deserts around the world. 15% of all land! They are empty of life—both human (population density map at the bottom) and of animal/plants. What if we watered them with desalinated seawater? Is it economically viable? What about pollution?
Today, the best desalination plants can produce one ton of water for only $0.40!
To give you a sense of the cost, this is the cost of tap water in different cities around the world
Water in Oslo costs 15x more than the cost of desalinating it!
And since electricity is over a third of the cost, but its price is about to plummet thanks to solar and wind energy, within a decade we can expect desalination costs to reach $0.30/ton!
At this price, the cost of desalination is competitive even with the price of water for industrial purposes!
We could desalinate water & pump it into deserts. How far inland? Quite a lot!
It costs ~$0.05 to transport a ton of water 100 km inland or lift it up by 100 m.
So for $1/ton, you can send it 1200 km inland or 1200m up!
All this area of the Sahara could get freshwater!
In a country like Australia, everything but the white areas in the middle could receive desalinated freshwater!
(Even more if we made that depression in the middle into a sea, but that's for another day)
All these deserts are close enough to the sea (and low enough) that a big share of them could be transformed into lush gardens
Now, we couldn't transform them into agricultural centers... Or could we?
Water for agriculture costs nothing to a few cents around the world. Eg in California's Imperial Valley, it's 1-2 cents. $0.40/ton is not competitive.
For some crops
Here are a few farm products and how much more they would cost if they used water at $0.40/ton
Cheese would cost $2.2 more per kg, so that's not viable
But tomato costs would only grow by $0.15/kg!
And if we use enclosed greenhouses or vertical farms, which save 95% of water, we could basically farm anything in deserts!
If we can make and transport cheap freshwater inland, millions of km2 of desert land can be transformed into new cities, touristic resorts, agricultural land, and even lush forests and new lakes. The limit is our imagination
And if you think we can't make freshwater lakes with desalinated water... Israel is already replenishing the Sea of Galilee with desalinated water from the Mediterranean!!
So yes, desalination promises to make the world better:
• It's cheap: $0.40/ton
• Will get cheaper: $0.30/ton
• This is cheap enough for all drinking & industrial uses
• Also for agricultural uses, with enclosed greenhouses
• We can make cities, resorts, lakes, forests...
2. Los Angeles:
• Trading hub between the world (Pacific) and the US (railways)
• Weather + biggest coastal valley on the Pacific➡️agriculture & cheap building
• Oil
• Landscapes + far from the East Coast centers of power➡️Attracted the film industry
People think we must shrink the world's population to be happy, but they're wrong
A world with shrinking population would be decaying, poor, brutal, violent, hopeless
A world with 100 billion people would be dynamic, rich, innovative, peaceful, hopeful
🧵
1. In the last 2 centuries, the world got better as the population exploded:
• Richer
• Live older
• Lower child mortality
• Fewer homicides
• Fewer war deaths
• Fewer hours worked
• Lower share of poor people
And much more: fewer infections, diseases, accidents. More racial equality, sexual equality. Instant access to all the knowledge in the world. We can go anywhere, whenever we want...
We can raise our population on Earth from 8 billion to 100B humans if we want to
Would we starve?
Be too crowded?
Would pollution explode?
Ecosystems collapse?
No! Don't believe alarmist degrowthers. This is why they're wrong: 🧵
Degrowthers put a label to "how many humans can the Earth sustain": carrying capacity
Their estimates vary wildly
Wait, what? What a surprise, the mode of their estimates is 8B—exactly the current number of ppl on Earth
WHAT A COINCIDENCE!
Or they lack imagination: OMG the Earth is already on the brink. Surely not one more soul fits here!
And then they try to find out what limits we might be hitting. Their most common fears are: 1. Room 2. Food 3. Water 4. Energy 5. Pollution 6. Resources
Let's look at each:
President-elect @realDonaldTrump could own the environmentalists by solving global warming on his first day in office, and do it for 0.1% of current climate investments
Here's how: sulfate injection 🧵
1. GLOBAL WARMING
2024 is the 1st year we pass 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels
This is caused by CO2
Some side-effects of this CO2 are good, but it's undeniable that the planet is warming fast, and it could create some nasty pbms
1. GLOBAL WARMING
2024 is the 1st year we pass 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels
This is caused by CO2
Some side-effects of this CO2 are good, but it's undeniable that the planet is warming fast, and it could create some nasty pbms
Beata Halassy got cancer in 2016, then again in 2018, and again in 2020. That looked awfully bad. She knew if she continued in the traditional route, her cancer might eventually prevail. So she decided to try what she knew about: viruses
Here's the theory: 1. Select a virus that is likely to attack your target cancer cells 2. Because cancer cells neutralize the immune system, they're more likely to be killed by viruses than healthy cells