Can desalinated water deliver a future of infinite water?
Yes!
• It's cheap
• It will get even cheaper
• Limited pollution
• Some countries already live off of it
We can transform deserts into paradise. And some countries are already on that path:🧵
Crazy fact:
Over half of Israel's freshwater is desalinated from the Mediterranean!
And the vast majority of its tap water is desalinated too!
And it costs less than municipal water in a city like LA!
It's not the only country. Saudi Arabia is the biggest desalinator in the world. 50% of its drinking water is desalinated. It's 30% in Singapore, a majority of water in the UAE...
What if we applied this, but at scale across the world?
Look at all these deserts around the world. 15% of all land! They are empty of life—both human (population density map at the bottom) and of animal/plants. What if we watered them with desalinated seawater? Is it economically viable? What about pollution?
Today, the best desalination plants can produce one ton of water for only $0.40!
To give you a sense of the cost, this is the cost of tap water in different cities around the world
Water in Oslo costs 15x more than the cost of desalinating it!
And since electricity is over a third of the cost, but its price is about to plummet thanks to solar and wind energy, within a decade we can expect desalination costs to reach $0.30/ton!
At this price, the cost of desalination is competitive even with the price of water for industrial purposes!
We could desalinate water & pump it into deserts. How far inland? Quite a lot!
It costs ~$0.05 to transport a ton of water 100 km inland or lift it up by 100 m.
So for $1/ton, you can send it 1200 km inland or 1200m up!
All this area of the Sahara could get freshwater!
In a country like Australia, everything but the white areas in the middle could receive desalinated freshwater!
(Even more if we made that depression in the middle into a sea, but that's for another day)
All these deserts are close enough to the sea (and low enough) that a big share of them could be transformed into lush gardens
Now, we couldn't transform them into agricultural centers... Or could we?
Water for agriculture costs nothing to a few cents around the world. Eg in California's Imperial Valley, it's 1-2 cents. $0.40/ton is not competitive.
For some crops
Here are a few farm products and how much more they would cost if they used water at $0.40/ton
Cheese would cost $2.2 more per kg, so that's not viable
But tomato costs would only grow by $0.15/kg!
And if we use enclosed greenhouses or vertical farms, which save 95% of water, we could basically farm anything in deserts!
If we can make and transport cheap freshwater inland, millions of km2 of desert land can be transformed into new cities, touristic resorts, agricultural land, and even lush forests and new lakes. The limit is our imagination
And if you think we can't make freshwater lakes with desalinated water... Israel is already replenishing the Sea of Galilee with desalinated water from the Mediterranean!!
So yes, desalination promises to make the world better:
• It's cheap: $0.40/ton
• Will get cheaper: $0.30/ton
• This is cheap enough for all drinking & industrial uses
• Also for agricultural uses, with enclosed greenhouses
• We can make cities, resorts, lakes, forests...
Why did 🇮🇱Israel strike 🇮🇷Iran now, and not months or years ago or in the future?
A unique combination of a dozen factors converged to make the moment unique for 🇮🇱Israel: 🧵 1. No Hamas to its southwest 2. No Hezbollah to its north 3. No Assad threat to the northeast
4...
4. No more Syrian army to attack 🇮🇱Israel's planes: As the new forces of HTS took over Syria, Israel bombed all the existing Syrian military. No more fighter jets or surface-to-air missiles to threaten 🇮🇱Israel
5. Ability to fly over Syria to refuel
This is critical, because 🇮🇷Iran is ~600-1000 miles away from 🇮🇱Israel, so 1200-2000 miles round trip
The range of Israel’s stealth F35 is only about 1,350 mi
To operate inside 🇮🇷Iran, 🇮🇱Israel needed refueling over Syria
1. From Feb 2025 to Jun 2025, it increased its amount of enriched uranium by 50% 2. It now had 400kg of highly enriched uranium, enough for 9-10 bombs 3. This is 60% enriched uranium. Fuel only requires 5% enrichment.
4... 🧵
4. It's easy to go from 60% to 90% (weapons grade), it only takes weeks 5. The only country on Earth with such enriched uranium and without a bomb is 🇮🇷Iran 6. The IAEA (nuclear watchdog) found 3 secret nuclear sites
7. When 🇮🇷Iran didn't respond to this accusation, the IAEA censured it 8. 🇮🇷Iran responded to the censoring by saying it would open a 3rd enrichment site in a secret spot
Now that the 🇺🇸US has bombed 3 of 🇮🇷Iran's nuclear sites, where will the war go from here?
It depends on 🇮🇱Israel: 🧵
🇮🇷Iran never wanted the war, and its forces are being decimated. Its ability to send missiles to 🇮🇱Israel is being degraded every day. If it could sign a ceasefire while saving face, it would
Meanwhile, 🇮🇱Israel has kept striking Iran non stop. Its daily airstrikes didn't go down substantially in the first few days. Its ability to keep striking 🇮🇷Iran remains unabated
Can there be an invasion of Iran? Hardly. Two maps explain why, and also why Iran is the way it is today, whether its regime will fall, what other superpowers will do, and in general why Iran is the way it is today
The only truly exposed area is the southwestern corner of Khuzestan, which is a swamp
The biggest superpowers lie to the west, and there the very broad Zagros make it really hard to conquer Iran. The mountain range is tall and wide, making logistics similar to Afghanistan. Very hard.
Iraq learned it the hard way when it tried to attack there in 1980
Listening to the debate, it looks like 🇮🇱Israel & the 🇺🇸US intelligence community disagreed, but that's not really the case!
Both thought Iran was weeks to months away from being able to develop the bomb
So what's the disagreement?
Here are more facts:
• Tehran had just announced a 3rd enrichment site in an undisclosed place
• The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had recently produced a report censoring Iran for the 1st time in 20y
• It accused Iran of 3 undisclosed nuclear sites
• It claimed Iran had enough enriched uranium for 9-10 nuclear bombs
• All the other countries in the world who have enriched uranium at the same level also have nuclear weapons. Iran is the only country that doesn't have these weapons yet enriches uranium as much
Nuclear is the best source of energy across nearly all the factors that matter. It's the safest, cleanest, densest, most sustainable, geopolitically stable, predictable, dispatchable, and can be cheap.
1. SAFEST
It kills 1000x less than coal
Living close to a nuclear power plant for one year gives you less radiation than eating a banana (graph is logarithmic)
2. CLEANEST
Accounting for all the lifecycle of all energies, it's the one that emits the least CO2