Can desalinated water deliver a future of infinite water?
Yes!
• It's cheap
• It will get even cheaper
• Limited pollution
• Some countries already live off of it
We can transform deserts into paradise. And some countries are already on that path:🧵
Crazy fact:
Over half of Israel's freshwater is desalinated from the Mediterranean!
And the vast majority of its tap water is desalinated too!
And it costs less than municipal water in a city like LA!
It's not the only country. Saudi Arabia is the biggest desalinator in the world. 50% of its drinking water is desalinated. It's 30% in Singapore, a majority of water in the UAE...
What if we applied this, but at scale across the world?
Look at all these deserts around the world. 15% of all land! They are empty of life—both human (population density map at the bottom) and of animal/plants. What if we watered them with desalinated seawater? Is it economically viable? What about pollution?
Today, the best desalination plants can produce one ton of water for only $0.40!
To give you a sense of the cost, this is the cost of tap water in different cities around the world
Water in Oslo costs 15x more than the cost of desalinating it!
And since electricity is over a third of the cost, but its price is about to plummet thanks to solar and wind energy, within a decade we can expect desalination costs to reach $0.30/ton!
At this price, the cost of desalination is competitive even with the price of water for industrial purposes!
We could desalinate water & pump it into deserts. How far inland? Quite a lot!
It costs ~$0.05 to transport a ton of water 100 km inland or lift it up by 100 m.
So for $1/ton, you can send it 1200 km inland or 1200m up!
All this area of the Sahara could get freshwater!
In a country like Australia, everything but the white areas in the middle could receive desalinated freshwater!
(Even more if we made that depression in the middle into a sea, but that's for another day)
All these deserts are close enough to the sea (and low enough) that a big share of them could be transformed into lush gardens
Now, we couldn't transform them into agricultural centers... Or could we?
Water for agriculture costs nothing to a few cents around the world. Eg in California's Imperial Valley, it's 1-2 cents. $0.40/ton is not competitive.
For some crops
Here are a few farm products and how much more they would cost if they used water at $0.40/ton
Cheese would cost $2.2 more per kg, so that's not viable
But tomato costs would only grow by $0.15/kg!
And if we use enclosed greenhouses or vertical farms, which save 95% of water, we could basically farm anything in deserts!
If we can make and transport cheap freshwater inland, millions of km2 of desert land can be transformed into new cities, touristic resorts, agricultural land, and even lush forests and new lakes. The limit is our imagination
And if you think we can't make freshwater lakes with desalinated water... Israel is already replenishing the Sea of Galilee with desalinated water from the Mediterranean!!
So yes, desalination promises to make the world better:
• It's cheap: $0.40/ton
• Will get cheaper: $0.30/ton
• This is cheap enough for all drinking & industrial uses
• Also for agricultural uses, with enclosed greenhouses
• We can make cities, resorts, lakes, forests...
I respect @BillAckman a lot but I think he's wrong on @Uber. AFAIK his bear case on robotaxis: 1. Not great for bad weather 2. Too expensive to cover peak demand 3. Less utilization because of food delivery 4. They can't disintermediate Uber
1. Not great for bad weather
This is a @Waymo driving in rain—the worst they'll ever be! They already have ~10x fewer accidents than humans. Maybe in the short term humans are going to be better in some really bad weather, but those are short-term exceptions
2. Robotaxis will be too expensive to cover peak demand
This is ptrobably true for Waymo but not @Tesla's @robotaxi, for 2 reasons:
a. Cybercab costs will be the same order of magnitude as normal ICE cars
The Model 3 costs ~$40-$45k, but the Cybercab will have 60% fewer parts: steering wheel, pedals, steering column, backseats, backdoors, side-window mirrors, rear window... Let's assume this will bring the cost down to $30-$35k
Add to that the new manufacturing process that treats Tesla's Cybercabs not as cars, but as electronics. They will be able to produce a car every 5s. This will further reduce their price
Compare that to the price of a car for Uber, which today is between $25k-$60k
Never bet against the US:
Ppl think its biggest strength is its institutions, the dollar, entrepreneurship... But one of its biggest assets is its geography 🧵
1. Size
The US is the 4th largest country. It spans an entire continent, reaches two oceans, and is big enough to be a geographic heavyweight in the world
2. The Mississippi Basin
It's the 4th largest drainage basin in the world and occupies 40% of the contiguous 48 US states, touching 32 of the US’s 50 states. 11 US states directly take their name from it.
Climate caused the US Civil War, because: 1. Slavery was the main cause of the war 2. Different crops were the main cause of slavery 3. Climate caused different crops in the North vs South
This is terribly important to understand the US today and how to heal it
🧵
1. Slavery was the main cause of the war: the Abolitionist North & the Slavery South were competing to expand westward to increase their political influence
But the North grew & expanded faster, to a point where it could force abolition on the South, which then seceded
In 1790, the Free & Slave states had the same population, and there were many more Slave States (8 vs 5), so Slave States controlled the Senate.
By the eve of the war in 1860, the North had 50% more population and 4 more states, giving them control of both the House & Senate
Moscow is one of the weirdest capitals:
• Biggest European city
• Extremely cold
• Little farmland
• To Russia's extreme west
• Not on a coast or main river
How did it create the biggest country on Earth?
It involves horse archers, human harvesting & tiny animals 🧵
The first shocking fact is that Russia is so far north it's at the edge of arable land. How can you create a capital with so little food? Why not in the middle of the most fertile area on Earth?
This far north is extremely cold
Moscow is the 3rd coldest capital in the world and by far the biggest: with 20M ppl, its metro population is 8x bigger than the 2nd biggest cold capital, Stockholm!
This map tells you how a seemingly innocent difference, like wheat vs rice eating, can have dramatic political, economic, and cultural ramifications:
🧵
The areas that harvest wheat vs rice are different. Why?
Because of climate
Rice needs heat and lots of water. Ideally, flooding the fields to also kill weeds. Rice dies with frost.
Wheat resists it well, prefers cooler temperatures, but dies when it's flooded
Did you know the West's trade deficits to China are not recent, but started 2000 years ago? This is the story of how silk, porcelain, tea, opium, and silver have determined the history of the world 🧵
The Romans already complained about deficits to China! Mainly because of silk
Back then the Chinese already preferred manufacturing and selling products than consuming foreign products. Chronicler Solinus ~200 AD: The Chinese "prefer only to sell their products, but do not like to buy our goods."