Thread by @MassDara

I've returned from a research trip to Ukraine, where I met many people in Kyiv and along the frontlines. They are brave and kind in ways that words fail to capture. The situation is serious and urgent for many reasons. I share my thoughts in the thread below. /1

As officials and others have already said publicly, Ukraine is facing a shortage of manpower - infantry in particular. Mobilization has not brought relief for many reasons. More impacts in the story below. /2 ft.com/content/adbef9…

Manpower and force employment issues are challenges right now, and manpower is stretched across the front. A shortage of western weapons was not the most critical issue during this particular snapshot in time, although it has been in the past. /3

The front has become unstable in a few areas. There are many factors complicating the Kursk operation and areas south of Pokrovsk. /4

When the Kursk operation began this summer, I worried about what could happen to the units sent there and impacts on a stretched front. Both issues are visible now. /5

Kursk resupply and egress routes are limited and under threat. Russians know where the chokepoints are. Ground has been lost to Russian attacks and the Russians seem to be trying to pinch this operation off at the neck. /6

https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1856539986688127267?s=46

There have been multiple videos of Russians executing wounded or surrendering AFU soldiers. The addition of DPRK soldiers in Kursk adds strain to an already strained situation there. /7

Russians are launching frequent small attacks interspersed with armored assaults along the front, with concentrations against Kursk, Kupiansk, and areas south of Pokrovsk. All year, Russian forces have been modifying tactics towards encirclements instead of direct assaults./8

Russians use motorcycles, cars, carts, and armored vehicles to insert assault teams and strain defending units. Ukrainian forces use what they have to try to hold assaults back, using drones and an overall good supply of artillery shells, to conserve manpower. /9

Ukrainian forces are highly attuned to modification in Russian tactics and are doing a good job to the best of their abilities to counter attacks, but cannot fully suppress and repel all attacks. Technology cannot offset the need for well-manned units. /10

Manpower issues are not universal, and some units are able to recruit directly to fill billets, but in general, the military, NG, and TDF are experiencing shortages to various degrees. Western training for Ukrainians abroad also needs modification. /11

Russia is taking its heaviest casualties since 2022 while on the offense. They continue to waste manpower and lose a great deal of equipment, but their rates of attack are not slowing. The Russians can rotate and regenerate forces better than Ukraine can right now /12.

On the current path, both Ukraine and Russia are headed for exhaustion in different ways. My concern is that Ukraine reaches it first if no changes are made. This is not for lack of bravery, competence, or skill of Ukrainian fighters, but a resource and strategy question. /13

To summarize. 1:Personnel sustainment and force employment are critical issues within Ukraine 2: Ukraine's partners must sharpen their support strategy given the current situation 3: the war cannot wait six months for DC to spin down/spin up during a presidential transition. /14

I met people in Ukraine who are practical, experienced, and focused. They continue with their battle tasks through weariness. Even in hard conditions, there is a quiet kindness and warmth too. I'm lucky i met them. I smile from a well-maintained American tank near the front. /15

Finally, and from the heart. I've held the hands of those fighting at the very edge of freedom. They're weary, focused, and good fighters, but they are bleeding out. They, despite all of it, are still kind and brave. Changes are needed, so they can defend what’s theirs. /16

I joined @KofmanMichael @RALee85 @HoansSolo and @konrad_muzyka on this trip. I'm glad I made this trip with you, guys. They are sharing their views also, which are well worth reading and considering. /end