Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Nov 14 7 tweets 2 min read Read on X
The best explanation for Trump’s nominations of Matt Gaetz and Tulsi Gabbard comes from Konstantin Sonin @k_sonin : they won’t be confirmed, but it’s Trump’s way of rewarding loyalty.

I quote: 1/ Image
Image
Tulsi Gabbard, former congresswoman (back then a Democrat) and veteran, is proposed for National Security Coordinator. Matt Gaetz, congressman, is nominated for Attorney General 2/
The reaction — shock and outrage, as these nominations are, to say the least, highly controversial. 3/
Gabbard has drawn attention not only for her views but for supporting Putin’s aggression against Ukraine in the early days of the war. Gaetz, meanwhile, has been surrounded by scandals, with questions raised about the age of the young women he was briefly involved with 4/
But in my view, all this noise can be dismissed; the Senate, whose approval is required, likely won’t confirm them. Republicans hold 53 votes, but two are openly opposed to Trump, and many “institutionalists” will ultimately vote against. 5/
It’s unlikely even to reach a vote — in the coming weeks, so much will surface that they’ll withdraw on their own.6/
Why is Trump doing this? I think it’s a show of gratitude for years of loyalty. He knows they won’t get through, but the honor of being nominated is recognition in itself.X

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More from @Mylovanov

Nov 15
What’s truly remarkable about Trump’s nominations is his clear, fast pivot to viewing the Russia-China-Iran axis as an outright adversary. No president articulated a strategy this directly through appointments this fast. But his domestic nominations are deeply troubling 1/ Image
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Trumps signals that he is putting security and strength—both at home and abroad—at the forefront. 2/
But Trump’s selections span across Republican factions. His choice of Tulsi Gabbard, with her leniency toward Russia, and Matt Gaetz, a lightning rod for controversy, creates doubts. The nomination of RFK to reform health policy is awful 3/ Image
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Read 6 tweets
Nov 14
NYTimes writes that Ukraine is shifting focus from territorial control to security guarantees. Here in Kyiv, I agree. The Trump election is a wake up call for many, including me, to reassess our options. 1/ Image
The argument has long been that territories are about the people who live there—people Russia oppresses and brutalizes, whom we cannot abandon.

Now, with the stark realization across Ukraine that reclaiming these territories is unlikely, perspectives are shifting. 2/ Image
Yet, what of those still there? Many make the journey back to Ukrainian-controlled areas via Russia and Europe; some choose to remain. It’s a profound tragedy. 3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
Nov 14
Ukrainian bonds have surged 12% in past month because investors expect that Trump will get a rapid war settlement, which is good for business. At least, in the short run 1/ Image
Ukrainian euro bonds jumped[after Trump election] from 44 to 49 cents on dollar, with GDP warrants climbing even more sharply as markets price in peace prospects 2/ Image
This is astonishing given the September $20bn restructuring of the Ukrainian debt that imposed 30%+ losses in exchange for potential future growth-linked payouts 3/
Read 5 tweets
Nov 13
NYTimes on the new department for government efficiency under Musk @elonmusk and Ramaswamy @VivekGRamaswamy

Their job is to get $2 trillion in federal budget cuts by July 4, 2026

They are also thinking about shutting down Education dept, FBI, IRS 1/

#DOGE Image
Musk's has a major conflict: SpaceX has $10 billion in federal contracts, faces 20 investigations/lawsuits from agencies he'd oversee. Also, department to provide "advice from outside government." 2/
Ramaswamy proposes eliminating Education Department, FBI, IRS by executive order, cutting federal workforce by 75%, slashing foreign aid to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan.

Good luck with that! There is no way they will be able to do it and they are up for a surprise 3/
Read 9 tweets
Nov 13
Trump pick for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth:

“You know what ceasefires are for him [Putin]? An opportunity to reload”

“[We should be] equipping and supplying Ukraine with what it needs

The Biden administration has not been doing it fast enough” 1/

But more recently, he expressed skepticism about U.S. involvement in Ukraine. Pete suggested that the conflict “pales in comparison” to domestic issues affecting Americans’ quality of life 2/mediamatters.org/russias-invasi…
Pete has characterized Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine as “Putin’s give-me-my-shit-back war”

Many view this as an implicit acceptance of the idea of the spheres of influence 3/

reuters.com/world/us/trump…
Read 7 tweets
Nov 12
Ten days before the election, Michael Waltz launched a scathing critique of Biden’s weak foreign policy, exposing his hardline stance on China, Russia, and Ukraine. Now set to become Trump’s national security advisor, Waltz is likely to push further than Biden ever dared. 1/ Image
Waltz echoes what Ukrainians have long argued: Biden’s “support as long as it takes” lacks strategy and invites failure. Instead, he calls for economic pressure on Russia through oil, gas, sanctions —or, if that fails, to arm Ukraine well with few restrictions. 2/ Image
Michael argues that peace now, with a West-aligned Ukraine, marks a strategic defeat for Putin—and Beijing also knows it. Biden’s approach, he adds, will achieve the same outcome but at a greater cost in lives and funds 3/ Image
Read 7 tweets

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