Just some examples of how FAST the crypto mood is changing:
1) Minneapolis Fed Pres. Neel Kashkari, who as recently as 3 weeks ago was insisting crypto was only used for drug deals and other criminal activities, now says he “will have an open mind”. /1
As if having an open idea was a novel idea for an influential monetary official, don’t get me started… /2
2) Financial journalists who have dismissed crypto in the past are softening their stance, I’ve seen a few grudgingly admit that they still don’t get it but maybe there is something there.
This is not just signal – it’s also relevant given their reach. /3
3) A few weeks ago, two senior executives from the ECB’s Market Infrastructure & Payments division broke the walls of political neutrality and actively encouraged readers to pressure their politicians to pass anti-Bitcoin laws. /4
Their arguments were, of course, based on misunderstanding the concept from top to bottom. Well, last week their report was edited. They’re still anti-Bitcoin, but the aggressive tone has been notably muted. That's something. /5
5) And a couple of days ago, the governor of the French central bank and the head of the French financial markets regulator jointly wrote an op-ed recommending centralized EU/ESMA supervision of crypto firms. /7
The idea is to develop a bloc-wide digital asset market, to hopefully nudge the bloc towards a common capital market (MiCA sets guidelines but devolves supervisory authority to the respective countries).
Assuming reasonable rules, it could widen the potential. /8
6) Yesterday, @BitwiseInvest announced the acquisition of staking service provider Attestant.
The strong signal here is incoming clarity on the legal status of staking contracts, and we can expect new types of staking investment products to emerge. /9
And these are just some of the signals. There will be more, many more.
- A continued change of tone from skeptics in mainstream media
- More govts announcing crypto framework consideration
- A flurry of M&A (already started)
- More funding deals closed
Above, when I said "I've written before...", I meant here 👇:
If you're interested in how crypto impacts macro and vice versa, I hope you'll consider subscribing!cryptoismacro.com
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Crypto markets are currently in a very strange lull. Realized 30d volatilities for both BTC and ETH are off their record lows from earlier this year, but in the case of ETH, not by much. (chart @glassnode)🧵
This is despite some big shifts in both ecosystems: BTC fees shot up last week due to high transaction due to ordinals. Ethereum recently underwent a key upgrade that enabled staking withdrawals, leading to a net increase in staking demand. /2 (chart @21Shares@DuneAnalytics)
@21Shares@DuneAnalytics High uncertainty regarding the crypto regulatory outlook as well as macro drivers is keeping many market participants on the sidelines - the relatively low level of trading activity dampens the volatility impact of a market liquidity tightening. But still, this is weird. /3
A 🧵on Sudan – we’re not just witnessing a local civil war, it’s the collapse of a significant part of the Africa/ME puzzle as well as the result of shifting geopolitical allegiances shaping international influence. The fighting for now is isolated, but the stakes are global. /1
It wasn’t that long ago, in 2019, that the world celebrated the overthrow of the country’s dictator Omar al-Bashir (in power since 1989), who has been accused by the International Criminal Court in the Hague for genocide against the people of Darfur. /2 aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/12…
He thought he could be protected from this by cultivating rival military groups that would keep each other in check – in the end, they united against him, threw him in jail and drew up a power sharing deal that would eventually hand over to a civilian government. /3… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Time for a thread on on-chain metrics that are flashing close-to-bottom signals, going by historical patterns. Some caveats: 1) the markets today ARE different, much more institutional/macro, 2) crypto doesn’t have a whole lotta history yet. That said, here goes:
Realized price – the average purchase cost of all BTC holdings divided by the outstanding # of BTC. Market price has just dipped below. This has only happened twice before in past 5 yrs, in Nov ’18 and Mar ’20. Took 4.5mo + 1wk respectively to go back above. (charts @glassnode)
@glassnode But let’s standardize the above for market size + volatility. MVRV Z-score takes the diff between aggregate acquisition cost and market value of all BTC holdings + divides by the standard dev of the market cap. Same result.
I’ve been asked a few times over the past couple of days how much leverage there is in the crypto markets. While there is no comprehensive data on all types of leverage, I keep an eye on BTC perp open interest (OI) as a barometer, and: /1
First, why this metric? BTC perpetual futures are contracts that just keep rolling over – no expiry date (hence “perpetual”). This makes them easier for many traders/investors – less hassle, less expiry loss, wide variety of underlying assets… /2
These trade mainly on offshore crypto derivatives exchanges and usually offer notably higher leverage than contract futures. So, I use perps when I want to gauge market leverage. It’s not *all* the leverage in the market, but it’s an indicator. /3
A run on Celsius could end up having a bigger impact on the market as a whole than the collapse of the Terra ecosystem – that hurt a lot, but was relatively isolated. This implosion could impact many ecosystems, as Celsius has a range of assets leveraged on several platforms. /1
Plus, with the relative lack of transparency around Celsius holdings, the hits we know it has taken recently (BadgerDAO, Stakehound, LUNA/UST) and its borrowing over the past month, market concerns around its solvency are building. /2
The decision to halt withdrawals and even internal transfers adds fuel to that fire, making market jitters even worse and triggering the worst intra-day drops we’ve seen since March 2020. This is hitting assets from a wide range of ecosystems… /3 medium.com/p/a-memo-to-th…
Hearing a lot of people say that this crisis is going to be like 2008. It’s not. Here’s how it’s different (thread incoming!) – TLDR; supply shocks are very different from debt shocks. /1
1) 2008 was a banking/financial crisis. This isn’t. That’s important because when debt is the main culprit, lowering interest rates can make a difference. Especially when you actually have interest rates to lower. /2
2) This crisis is a supply shock. Pandemics affect supply chains by closing factories and constricting logistics. They become a demand shock when companies have to close because there’s nothing to sell, or customers can’t get to you. /3