Crypto markets are currently in a very strange lull. Realized 30d volatilities for both BTC and ETH are off their record lows from earlier this year, but in the case of ETH, not by much. (chart @glassnode)🧵 This is despite some big shifts in both ecosystems: BTC fees shot up last week due to high transaction due to ordinals. Ethereum recently underwent a key upgrade that enabled staking withdrawals, leading to a net increase in staking demand. /2 (chart @21Shares @DuneAnalytics)

A 🧵on Sudan – we’re not just witnessing a local civil war, it’s the collapse of a significant part of the Africa/ME puzzle as well as the result of shifting geopolitical allegiances shaping international influence. The fighting for now is isolated, but the stakes are global. /1 It wasn’t that long ago, in 2019, that the world celebrated the overthrow of the country’s dictator Omar al-Bashir (in power since 1989), who has been accused by the International Criminal Court in the Hague for genocide against the people of Darfur. /2
aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/12…

Time for a thread on on-chain metrics that are flashing close-to-bottom signals, going by historical patterns. Some caveats: 1) the markets today ARE different, much more institutional/macro, 2) crypto doesn’t have a whole lotta history yet. That said, here goes: Realized price – the average purchase cost of all BTC holdings divided by the outstanding # of BTC. Market price has just dipped below. This has only happened twice before in past 5 yrs, in Nov ’18 and Mar ’20. Took 4.5mo + 1wk respectively to go back above. (charts @glassnode)

I’ve been asked a few times over the past couple of days how much leverage there is in the crypto markets. While there is no comprehensive data on all types of leverage, I keep an eye on BTC perp open interest (OI) as a barometer, and: /1 First, why this metric? BTC perpetual futures are contracts that just keep rolling over – no expiry date (hence “perpetual”). This makes them easier for many traders/investors – less hassle, less expiry loss, wide variety of underlying assets… /2

A run on Celsius could end up having a bigger impact on the market as a whole than the collapse of the Terra ecosystem – that hurt a lot, but was relatively isolated. This implosion could impact many ecosystems, as Celsius has a range of assets leveraged on several platforms. /1 Plus, with the relative lack of transparency around Celsius holdings, the hits we know it has taken recently (BadgerDAO, Stakehound, LUNA/UST) and its borrowing over the past month, market concerns around its solvency are building. /2

https://twitter.com/MikeBurgersburg/status/1533133666884395009?s=20&t=TZWMZQ7qthOohwobM2SxPA

Hearing a lot of people say that this crisis is going to be like 2008. It’s not. Here’s how it’s different (thread incoming!) – TLDR; supply shocks are very different from debt shocks. /1 1) 2008 was a banking/financial crisis. This isn’t. That’s important because when debt is the main culprit, lowering interest rates can make a difference. Especially when you actually have interest rates to lower. /2

This piece by @mikejcasey for @coindesk hints at the changing role of central banks. The shift is deeper than most realise – and, combined with other developments in the central bank world, points to a MIND-BLOWING change in their role. /1
coindesk.com/a-decade-of-qu… @mikejcasey @coindesk It’s not just that central banks are seriously thinking about digital fiat or CBDCs, although that is kinda huge. It’s that they are contemplating the re-wiring of money creation. And here’s the thing – that’s NOT, technically, in their mandate. /2