Joni Askola Profile picture
Nov 15, 2024 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/9 He must really hate his country! Putin is ensuring that the number of russians decreases: the recent estimate from the BBC and Mediazona indicates deaths between 141,000 and 197,000. This suggests that total casualties likely range from 500,000 to 800,000 Image
2/9 Using open-source research, Mediazona, an independent russian media outlet, in collaboration with BBC russia, has verified the names of 77,143 russian soldiers who have died since the onset of russia's full-scale invasion. Image
3/9 According to that data, it can be estimated that the total number of deaths among the russian army and pro-russian forces falls between 141,506 and 197,564 military personnel. Image
4/9 This indicates that russia likely has over 500,000 casualties at this point. The total number of casualties for russia is probably between 500,000 and 800,000, which aligns with most Western estimates. Image
5/9 russia was already facing severe demographic challenges prior to the war, and with the combined impact of deaths and those who have fled the country, the labor shortage is becoming a significant issue. Image
6/9 The labor shortage, coupled with rising public spending and sanctions, results in inflation, which complicates russia's ability to mobilize additional personnel, as this further exacerbates inflation. Image
7/9 This likely sheds light on why russia is currently using north korean troops, as they are less expensive for the russian economy and contribute to slower inflation growth. Image
8/9 Regardless of the circumstances, Putin is ensuring that there will be fewer russians by sacrificing his country's men in a war where he cannot achieve his original strategic objectives, and therefore cannot win. Image
9/9 Sources:
BBC
Mediazona Image

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More from @joni_askola

Aug 1
1/6 THREAD: Why russia is doomed in the long run

russia was already doomed before it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The war didn’t cause its decline — it accelerated it.

Demographics, economy, governance — all broken. The future? BleakImage
2/6 russia’s population is shrinking fast. Young people are fleeing, birth rates are collapsing, and labor shortages are growing.

It’s a demographic time bomb — and the war made it worse Image
3/6 russia is a developing country with no real growth engine.

Its economy runs on fossil fuels — energies of the past.

Corruption, centralization, and bad governance choke innovation and investment Image
Read 6 tweets
Aug 1
1/5 THREAD: JD Vance — The man Trump (and the West) should fear most

Vance isn’t just the VP. He’s here to dethrone Trump — and he’s far more radical.

Backed by far-right tech oligarchs, Vance is quietly building a post-Trump empire to reshape America and its role in the worldImage
2/5 Vance’s foreign policy is a gift to Putin.

He’s anti-Ukraine and keeps insulting European allies.

His vision aligns disturbingly with Curtis Yarvin — a theorist who wants to dismantle democracy and replace it with a corporate monarchy.

Vance is Yarvin’s disciple Image
3/5 While Trump plays populist, Vance plays philosopher-king.

He’s praised authoritarians, flirted with Christian nationalism, and wants to purge the civil service.

This isn’t classic MAGA—it’s more extreme.

He hates democracy, hates the West, and loves russia. He’s a traitor Image
Read 5 tweets
Jul 31
1/5 THREAD: russia’s empire of chaos

Putinism isn’t about building a future. It’s about burning the present.

russia’s imperialism is fueled by hate, destruction, and fear.

It doesn’t offer progress — only chaosImage
2/5 Chaos as strategy

russia doesn’t just cause chaos. Chaos is the strategy.

In Ukraine. In Africa. In the West.

Destabilize, divide, destroy.

Because a broken world is easier to controlImage
3/5 A zero-sum game

russia sees the world as a zero-sum game.

If the West thrives, russia loses.

So it must sabotage, subvert, and spread fear.

It doesn’t want to win by leading. It wants to win by wrecklingImage
Read 5 tweets
Jul 31
1/5 THREAD: russia and the culture of hate

Putinism didn’t invent it. It just perfected it.

Modern russian identity is built on enemies, fear, and hate. Hate for Ukraine. Hate for the West. Hate for dissent. Hate for liberalism.

But it’s not just hate — it’s also paranoiaImage
2/5 A culture of paranoia

In russia, enemies are everywhere.

Foreigners. Liberals. Journalists. Historians. Even your neighbor. Even your own thoughts.

This isn’t just propaganda — it’s a system that teaches people to fear and suspect everythingImage
3/5 Hate is manufactured

russians aren’t born full of hate.

But the system changes them.

Through media, education, and fear, they’re taught to hate — to see threats everywhere, to believe that loyalty means silence, and suspicion is survivalImage
Read 5 tweets
Jul 30
1/5 DOGE: Elon Musk’s Most Successful Scam?

Some billionaires give billions to the poorest. Musk took billions from them.

DOGE was a disaster for America — but a goldmine for Musk.

It didn’t save money. It didn’t help taxpayers. It hurt people, institutions, and US soft powerImage
2/5 DOGE was a scam

Sold as a plan to cut waste and reduce debt, it slashed aid, gutted agencies, and fired thousands.

But public spending went up.

The promised $2 trillion savings? A fantasy.

The real goal? Cripple oversight and reward alliesImage
3/5 Musk knew what he was doing

He backed Trump with hundreds of millions, got DOGE, and used it to target institutions investigating his companies.

He helped shut down USAID, cut global aid, and weaken US influence — while claiming to ”streamline” governmentImage
Read 5 tweets
Jul 30
1/8 THREAD:

Obama and Merkel’s foreign policy failures didn’t just empower russia — they helped pave the way for Trump

When the West looks weak and hypocritical, imposters and traitors rise.

Here’s how it happened — and what we must learn 👇Image
2/8 Two of the many people responsible for Trump’s rise in 2016? Obama and Merkel.

Yes, there were many causes — Bush’s wars, russian interference, immigration, poverty, disinformation — but weak foreign policy from Obama and Merkel helped create the vacuum Trump exploitedImage
3/8 The Obama-Merkel tandem projected weakness

They failed to deter russia in Ukraine, acted too slowly and too little in Syria, and underestimated china.

Their caution made Trump’s fake ”strength” look appealing to disillusioned votersImage
Read 8 tweets

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