Artur Rehi Profile picture
Nov 15 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
After the pro-Kremlin Georgian Dream party won the elections in Georgia, the Kremlin began to implement a plan to integrate the unrecognized republics of Abkhazia and North Ossetia into Russia. However, it did not work out. After the local authorities in Abkhazia announced
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an investment agreement with Russia, residents of the unrecognized republic took to the streets and seized the local government. Protesters surrounded the complex of government buildings and demanded the resignation of the head of the self-proclaimed republic, Aslan Bzhania.
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Earlier, protesters tore down part of the fence with a car and entered the territory adjacent to the parliament building. The protesters threw eggs and bottles at the police, who in turn used smoke bombs. Shots were heard near the parliament. Eight people were injured during
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the protest - one remains in hospital, the rest were released. People continue to arrive. The protesters are behaving calmly, not causing much destruction. Apart from broken bars, fences and doors, the protesters did not touch anything. The protesters demanded to resume the
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session and vote against the agreement. The head of Bzhania's personal security, the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the chairman of the State Security Service, having come out to the protesters, promised to convey their demands. According to the Telegram channel
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"Patriots of Abkhazia", Bzhania left the presidential administration building, which is located next to the parliament. The protesters chanted "deserter". Some of them entered the parliament building through the windows. A Russian flag was hung
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next to the windows along with the Abkhazian flag. The Abkhazian administration is preparing a document on the withdrawal from parliament of the bill that caused popular unrest. The protesters say that they are going to remain inside the building until Aslan Bzhania resigns.
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More from @ArturRehi

Nov 14
Despite Russia amassing an estimated 50,000 troops in the Kursk region, according to intelligence reports, and Putin's order to return the Kursk region to Russian control before Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025, the Russian counteroffensive is stalling. Putin hopes
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that Trump's arrival will freeze the conflict and he wants a stronger position in the "peace talks" if they take place. South Korean intelligence reports that Russia has deployed South Korean soldiers to the battle in the Kursk region. Russia has also received 170mm M-1978
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Koksan self-propelled howitzers from North Korea. They are based on a German gun given to the Koreans by the Soviets in the past and have an unusual caliber for the Russians. The 170mm caliber used by the "Koksan" is uncommon in Russia's ammunition supply chain, which is
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Read 13 tweets
Nov 11
We should expect the imminent dismissal of Elvira Nabiullina and another increase in the key rate in December. The measures taken by the Central Bank since the beginning of the war served only to postpone the economic crisis that Russia is plunging into. However, it is
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The real rate is even higher. Many have seen photos of butter in a thieves-proof box. Due to the increase in the rate, companies prefer to increase funds in bank accounts and deposits instead of investing them in the economy. Short-term deposits have become popular.
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In general, business funds account for more than a third of all bank liabilities. In January-September, balances in business accounts increased by 3.37 trillion rubles, or 6.2%. For comparison: household funds in banks for the same period increased by 7.09 trillion rubles,
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Read 11 tweets
Nov 10
1/10 The carrot and stick strategy: If Trump truly desires a fair and enduring peace in Ukraine, he must create incentives that encourage Putin to engage in negotiations. This will involve issuing threats. Analysis by @joni_askola Image
2/10 Individuals who grasp the fundamentals of negotiation realize that you shouldn't concede anything or offer free leverage to the other side before negotiations start. Additionally, successful negotiations depend on the other side's willingness to participate. Image
3/10 In the context of Ukraine, vowing to halt aid does not incentivize Putin to negotiate; instead, he views it as a chance to expand his territory and strengthen his position for future negotiations. Image
Read 10 tweets
Nov 7
If Ukraine is forced to give up territory in exchange for peace, this could serve as a signal to China that it can try to seize Taiwan and then bargain with the West for it. Russia also perceives Trump's victory as the fact that the US is now under his control, and this is
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largely an illusion, but now the efforts of the Russian propaganda machine will be turned towards Europe and we should expect an increase in Russia's attempts to split the European Union, countries and society as a whole. Most likely, there will be an increase in the
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number of sabotage, terrorist attacks, protests and other troubles. The collapse of the coalition in the German government could lead to early elections in the Bundestag. The reason was that Scholz the night before dismissed Christian Lindner, the finance minister of
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Read 13 tweets
Nov 6
After Trump's election victory, regardless of his further actions, Ukraine has no choice but to continue the fight for existence and independence. Russia is happy about Donald Trump's election and many hope that Trump will force Ukraine to negotiate and give up its
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territories in exchange for peace. Russia wants a break to build up strength. Ukraine will continue to fight if the US reduces or completely stops aid, and here, first of all, the EU countries should really think about increasing their aid and rearming, but so far most
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European countries do not have strong leaders or they work for the Kremlin, like Orban and Fico. Populists are also gaining strength, as happened with the US. If Trump pursues an isolationist policy, the EU countries should unite around Ukraine and increase aid many times
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Read 8 tweets
Nov 4
Russia is suffering record losses and in October this figure was more than 41,000 people. If Russia continues to advance at this pace, the losses of Russian personnel by the end of December will exceed the total losses of the occupiers in 2022 and 2023.
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It seems that Putin really counts on Trump's victory, hoping that he will stop aid and force Ukraine to negotiate on unfavorable terms for it. The Russians captured Selydove and are advancing on Pokrovsk. However, Russia has thrown all its forces and the problem with
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personnel is brewing more and more. This has not yet greatly affected the situation on the front, but Russia does not have any large reserves in reserve at the moment. It seems that Putin does not have long-term plans in case of Trump's defeat. He has used all channels
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Read 7 tweets

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