Ok, this is actually concerning. The sequence of the hospitalized teen with H5N1 has been released. Both of these mutation sites are known to impact α2,6 binding that is needed for human to human transmissibility.
Need top experts on H5N1 to immediately to look into this.
⚠️The right mutations at these sites can, on paper, significantly increase h-h transmission. That's why there needs to be immediate focus on this sample. It's somewhat unclear if the mutations occurred in this patient or prior to their infection.
It is also concerning that this is the first severe case we've had in North America out of many now. Is it a coincidence that these potentially h-h supporting mutations are linked to the most severe outcome?
I'd like to see some more clarification of the exact mutations at 190 and 226, and what the predicted shift is for each. It's also been suggested that there may be both the original amino acids AND the mutations in the same sample. This might suggest they evolved in this pt.
The details regarding this case are also concerning. This is the first very severe case in NA and in a healthy teen.. is that related to the mutations or a coincidence? This patient also had no known exposure history to wild or farmed animals
FYI:
All of the news stories of the sudden jump in severity of XEC comes from a dentist in the UK (Dr. Snieguole Geige) who most likely does not even know that it's only been 1/6 infections over the past month.
It's nearly impossible to judge any severity change this early.
This is not a knock for dentist speaking about covid. This is not my day job either. Sci/docs have made important contributions studying this virus even though it's outside their field. The issue:
🔸️Big claim
🔸️No data in hand
🔸️No evidence this Dr studies covid
Take for example @LongDesertTrain . A high school physics teacher who used his skill sets to become one of the top mutational experts in the world. He has demonstrated for years a high level of expertise and measured analysis on Covid unmc.edu/healthsecurity…
This is not an official forecast, rather a general idea of how I anticipate fall and winter Covid trends to look at the moment, with XEC being the main growing variant.
⚠️A strong new variant would change this relatively positive outlook.
The winter wave would be lead by the Northeast followed by the Midwest in terms of prevalence.
Note: I've been sitting on this outlook for 3 weeks, but waited to post it until we could see if XEC had stronger competition. That hasn't happened yet.
If this outlook comes to pass, it would result in the lowest winter surge in infections since 2020 and the lowest winter hospitalizations and deaths since the start of the pandemic. Fingers crossed.
Largest spike AA evolutionary jumps from 2020-2024, plotted:
BA.1 Omiron's top spot was followed closely by JN.1 Pirola, and both stand well above the rest over the past 4 years.
Viewed from a different lens of total AA spike divergence from the current lineages, JN.1 takes the top spot. This is branch to branch distance. Also note BA.2 divergence from BA.1.
Divergence is not necessarily a direct predictor of impact to caseloads. A lot depends on the diversity of population antibody protection when the evolution occurs. BA.1 easily holds that title because of the lack of antibody diversity at arrival.
The cost of preventing a pandemic is far lower than the cost of dealing with a pandemic. The current response to H5N1 in bovine needs to be dramatically increased. 1) Federal funds for compensation of lost profits on H5N1 farms (increases cooperation) 2) Abundant sequencing of..
H5N1 positive cows and mammals on or near outbreak farms 3) Ramp up testing of farms and farm animals 4) Detailed sequencing metadata: date, location, etc. 5) Guarantee privacy on any humans with symptoms, test, trace, isolate, seq any positives 6) Guarantee immunity for...
...migrant workers on milk farms to encourage cooporation 7) If no temporary ban, require testing on all raw milk lots 8) Improved safe cattle transfer. Require testing of mixed milk lot from farm and cow before transfer 9) Survalence testing of other cattle