Many compare Trump to Putin. I have, too. But the moment right now feels more like the Yeltsin era, when Russia's oligarchs took advantage of an older & somewhat incapacitated leader to privatize the state for their own interests. I wrote about this at length in the 1990s. THREAD 1/
See for instance, McFaul, “Russia's ‘Privatized’ State as an Impediment to Democratic Consolidation,” Part I, Security Dialogue, Vol. 29, No. 2 (Spring 1998), pp. 25-33. 2/
and McFaul, “Russia's ‘Privatized’ State as an Impediment to Democratic Consolidation,” Part II, Security Dialogue, Vol. 29, No. 3 (Summer 1998), pp. 219-236. 3/
McFaul, “Russian Economic Interest Groups: Winners and Losers in the Politics of Economic Reform,” in David Bernstein, ed., Cooperative Business Ventures between U.S. Companies and Russian Defense Enterprises, (Stanford, CA: Center for International Security and Arms Control, 1997), pp. 219-234. 4/
McFaul, “State Power, Institutional Change, and the Politics of Privatization in Russia,” World Politics, Vol. 47, No. 2, (January 1995), pp. 210-243. 5/END
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I'm watching with elation the fall of Assad and his barbaric regime.
But also remembering in sorrow the many Syrians who needlessly lost their lives over the last decade because Putin, Iran, and Hezbollah propped up these killers, and we failed to stop them. 1/ THREAD
In my last book, From Cold War to Hot Peace, the longest chapter is called "Chasing Russians, Failing Syrians." In that chapter, I documented how we in the West tried but failed to get Putin to work with us to bring an end to the Syrian civil war. /2
We tried. On numerous occasions Obama tried to convince Putin to work us on a deal. (Most memorable was their meeting in Los Cabos in 2012 which was mostly about Syria.) Clinton & Kerry did the same with Lavrov. Others did too. 3/
I hope future members of Trump's national security team are students of John Mearsheimer, especially when dealing with Putin. THREAD 1/
In his classic The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, Professor Mearsheimer wrote (p. 164),
"appeasement contradicts the dictates of offensive realism and, therefore, is a fanciful and dangerous strategy." 2/
"It is unlikely to transform a dangerous force into a kinder, gentler opponent, much less a peace-loving state." 3/
"A second Trump presidency will usher in a new chaotic, uncertain, and violent era, both at home and abroad. Some believe that’s ok, that we need an era of disruption to radically undermine the status quo at home and abroad. I don’t." 1/ THREAD
"As an academic, I have studied revolutions for over four decades. Some generate better outcomes for societies that live through them. Most do not. Instead, they produce sharp economic downturns, civil wars, dictatorships, and interstate conflicts." 2/
"America needs peaceful reform, not violent revolution. Our economy, the envy of the world, needs some reforms, not massive disruption. Our democracy needs gradual improvements, not a chaotic breakdown." 3/
"In the upcoming U.S. presidential election, there are legitimate policy differences between Vice President Kamala Harris and Mr. Donald Trump, over which reasonable people will debate and disagree." THREAD 1/
"For instance, the two candidates have different views on taxation. I can understand why affluent voters might support Trump over Harris. That’s rational, even if I disagree with them." 2/
"I can also understand why tech entrepreneurs might think that Trump will be better for them regarding regulation, even if I think they’re wrong, because I may value competition more than they do. But that’s an honest policy disagreement." 3/
"Former President Trump ... blamed the United States for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and called Zelenskyy “the greatest salesman in history” because “every time he comes to the country, he walks away with 100 billion.” THREAD 1/
"While Trump rightly talked about the tremendous loss of life and property in Ukraine as a result of war, he never once blamed Putin for such killing and destruction." 2/
"That has been a consistent pattern for Trump for almost a decade now. He doesn’t criticize Putin and instead admires his strength and justifies his barbaric actions. " 3/
The differences between candidates regarding foreign policy in this presidential election are very clear. That is not always the case. But this time around, voters have a very clear choice. Harris and Trump have very different approaches. 1/ THREAD
Harris believes in engagement and world leadership, supports allies and multilateralism, champions economic statecraft that benefits all Americans, and aspires to advance our democratic values. 2/
Trump trumpets isolationism, pursues pugnacious unilateralism, does not value allies, embraces dictators, and ignores the promotion of democratic values. 3/