THREAD: Today, Israel assassinated Muhammad Afif, Hizbullah’s media head, killing him along with other civilians in a Christian residential neighbourhood of Beirut. Beyond its clear violations of international humanitarian law, the timing of this assassination exposes Israel’s strategic failures and reflects a campaign fuelled by desperation and a desire for retribution. 1/
The fact that Israel waited this long to target Afif, a figure who moved openly and publicly, exposes the ineffectiveness of its earlier strikes. After targeting monumental figures like Nasrallah—who was not only the head of Hizbullah but also the leader of the entire Resistance Axis—and the entirety of Hizbullah’s senior military leadership, Israel’s failure to meaningfully weaken the organization only makes its desperation more apparent. Resorting to lower-ranking civilian officials like Afif underscores the brazen futility of its tactics. 2/
Earlier this week, Israel launched its expanded ground offensive, marking "Phase 2," intended to push toward Hizbullah's so-called "second line" of defense. This offensive now involves the 36th Division, Israel's largest armored formation. Yet, despite this escalation, Israel has failed to secure territorial gains beyond a few km into Lebanon, exposing the futility of its efforts and the exhaustion of its target bank. 3/
Operations like this are designed to have psychological impact, but they habitually fail even in that regard. Amid U.S.-mediated negotiations, the targeting of Afif reflects a misguided and ultimately futile attempt to pressure Hizbullah and the Lebanese state into acqueiscing to Israel’s demands. The choice to carry out the assassination in a Christian neighbourhood adds a secondary layer to this strategy, aiming to inflame sectarian tensions between Christians and Shia, thereby deepening Lebanon’s internal instability. 4/
Neither of these objectives will be achieved, yet Israel is clearly intent on escalating its campaign of intimidation—not just against Hizbullah but against Lebanon as a whole. This will likely involve further massacres of displaced Shia in host communities, the destruction of more towns and villages to render them uninhabitable, attacks on sacred sites such as mosques, churches, and burial grounds, and increased targeting of Hizbullah political officials and civilian institutions. This may even extend to democratically elected representatives of the Lebanese state—elections consistently overseen by international and Western observers. 5/
Setting aside all moral, ethical, and legal considerations, and judging Israel’s actions purely through the cold, pragmatic lens of realpolitik, this war is set to end not only without achieving a single one of its objectives but with Israel emerging significantly weaker. This is because the historically unparalleled scale of violence it has unleashed against Gaza and Lebanon has exhausted nearly all conceivable methods of force, leaving it with nothing further to escalate. Such overreach follows the law of diminishing returns, where greater violence yields increasingly limited results, ultimately undermining its strategic position. 6/
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