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Crémieux Profile picture
@cremieuxrecueil
Nov 17, 2024 • 9 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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Shoplifting is definitely serious, and it's an area where extremely few people do a lot of harm.

For example: 0.00385% of New York's population were responsible for 33% of the shoplifting arrests in the city.

327 people being arrested more than 6,000 times in a year is insane. Image
This isn't unprecedented by any means.

The number of burglaries in Leinster plummeted after three men died in a car crash. Image
Sentencing 11 people was enough to drop one British town's bike thefts by about 90%. Image
Even when you look in adoption studies, you get a picture that's not surprising.

Consider this: the 1% of adoptees whose biological parents had 3 or more known offenses were responsible for 30% of the convictions among adoptees. Image
As I documented recently, this is a very generally true phenomenon: very few people do a lot of crime.

Locking up a small number of people would make the crime situation in the town, the county, the state, or the nation much better.

Consider the known-criminal homicide rate: Image
Or consider another incredible fact: correctly enforcing a three-strike law in Sweden for violent crime would have halved violent crime rates!

A few people, with extensive criminal histories, drive most crime, arrests, etc.

When it comes to the population that actually serves jail time, the reasons largely have to do with these people just being impulsive.

Recall that violent crime explains the largest part of the prison population and that getting in dumb fights explains most violent crime. Image
It would be interesting to figure out if there's a way to substantially address this without incarceration, but that seems doubtful right now.

Sources: nytimes.com/2023/04/15/nyr…

independent.ie/irish-news/cri…

road.cc/content/news/c…

science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…

cremieux.xyz/p/minority-rep…

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Crémieux Profile picture
Jun 30
Amy Wax got in trouble for remarking that she'd not seen a Black student in the top quarter of a Penn Law class.

Thanks to hacked Columbia data, we can see that she was...

Probably right!

In the decade before her statement, there were just two top-25% Black students. Image
It is *totally* plausible that she never met these students. And it's also plausible that she rarely saw Black students in the top *half*, because each year, the number of them was just 1-4.

But, despite being 8% of the class, they were ~40% of the bottom 10%-ranked students: Image
Note: Penn is on-par/slightly less elite than Columbia, so it's likely that the Black students there were somewhat *worse*, as the article notes, making her claims more likely.

This all comes from @zagrebbi's latest article. It's well worth a read!

Link: rightrationalism.art/p/black-law-st…
Read 4 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Jun 30
And there it is:

The Supreme Court has decided to maintain Birthright Citizenship.
Big day if you think Roe v. Wade was correctly decided.

My favorite part (note that I've only read 150 pages so far) was Thomas explaining that, no, the Founding g Fathers did not adopt the English feudal system.

This fact was clearly lost on the other side. Image
The Court's reliance on a random remark from a case that ultimately didn't even produce lasting changes raises the question of whether that sort of thing even matters.

Why shouldn't I cite the Dred Scott case as the law of the land? Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Jun 26
The medical community has cured a mountain of diseases in the past several decades.

Diseases cured thread🧵

In 2013, hepatitis C was cured by direct-acting antivirals. Image
Peptic ulcers are now curable in more than 90% of patients via antibiotic triple/quad therapy (1994). Image
Sickle cell anemia was cured in 2023 for >96% of patients. Image
Read 22 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Jun 9
Because America has made the wise decision to compensate blood donors, it has ended up supplying some 70% of the world's blood plasma.

This is one of America's top exports, and each year, America saves hundreds of thousands of lives because it does this. Image
Some people argue against plasma donation on the basis of it being disproportionately used by poorer people

They say it's exploitative: they feel that selling something your body makes is wrong if disparate in ways they care about

But it's a lifesaver!

There's also research indicating that plasma donation can be healthy!

(And there's more indicating that, with compensation, it might reduce crime in the local area.)

Read 4 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Jun 7
It's Pride Month, so let's talk about why San Francisco is so incredibly gay.

Military policy.

🧵 Image
In 1982, Randy Shilts published his biography of Harvey Milk, entitled "The Mayor of Castro Street".

For those who don't know, Harvey Milk was the first open homosexual to be voted into public office in the state of California.

He was on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors. Image
The biography contains a fair bit of background, not just about Harvey Milk, but about San Francisco's gay community more generally.

In its early years, San Francisco attracted large waves of mainly male migrants motivated by the promise of gold in California. Image
Read 18 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Jun 1
My Uber driver says

- His license is suspended
- He was once a soldier for a Mafia family
- He's telling me about his time in Rikers
- He's showing me YouTube videos
- He's telling me his theories about Jews
He's telling me about gang wars he was in ad a kid.

He's wondering why all the Chinese girls are lined up - for an audition?

He says to go to Mother's Ruin for latin prostitutes.

All of this entirely unprompted.
"Yeah, these African guys, yeesh"

"I couldn't fuck that whore because I got the erectile dysfunction."

He just keeps going.
Read 6 tweets

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