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Crémieux Profile picture
@cremieuxrecueil
Nov 17 • 9 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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Shoplifting is definitely serious, and it's an area where extremely few people do a lot of harm.

For example: 0.00385% of New York's population were responsible for 33% of the shoplifting arrests in the city.

327 people being arrested more than 6,000 times in a year is insane. Image
This isn't unprecedented by any means.

The number of burglaries in Leinster plummeted after three men died in a car crash. Image
Sentencing 11 people was enough to drop one British town's bike thefts by about 90%. Image
Even when you look in adoption studies, you get a picture that's not surprising.

Consider this: the 1% of adoptees whose biological parents had 3 or more known offenses were responsible for 30% of the convictions among adoptees. Image
As I documented recently, this is a very generally true phenomenon: very few people do a lot of crime.

Locking up a small number of people would make the crime situation in the town, the county, the state, or the nation much better.

Consider the known-criminal homicide rate: Image
Or consider another incredible fact: correctly enforcing a three-strike law in Sweden for violent crime would have halved violent crime rates!

A few people, with extensive criminal histories, drive most crime, arrests, etc.

When it comes to the population that actually serves jail time, the reasons largely have to do with these people just being impulsive.

Recall that violent crime explains the largest part of the prison population and that getting in dumb fights explains most violent crime. Image
It would be interesting to figure out if there's a way to substantially address this without incarceration, but that seems doubtful right now.

Sources: nytimes.com/2023/04/15/nyr…

independent.ie/irish-news/cri…

road.cc/content/news/c…

science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…

cremieux.xyz/p/minority-rep…

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Crémieux Profile picture
Nov 19
There is a widespread myth that the obesity epidemic started in or around 1980.

This is based on a misunderstanding of the relationship between body fat percentage and BMI, which is used to classify someone as "obese".

🧵 Image
You can see this nonlinearity replicate in numerous contexts.

For example here it is in the Heritage Family Study. Image
The distribution of BMIs shifts right as bodyfat percentages increase across the distribution, but the mean and variance increase faster than body fatness does due to that nonlinearity, which shows up because it's part of how BMIs are constructed. Image
Read 17 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Nov 18
I simulated 100,000 people to show how often people are "thrice-exceptional": Smart, stable, and exceptionally hard-working.

I've highlighted these people in red in this chart: Image
If you reorient the chart to a bird's eye view, it looks like this: Image
In short, there are not many people who are thrice-exceptional, in the sense of being at least +2 standard deviations in conscientiousness, emotional stability (i.e., inverse neuroticism), and intelligence.

To replicate this, use 42 as the seed and assume linearity and normality
Read 7 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Nov 18
Three polls. Background first:

In Singapore, they use corporal punishment so that captured criminals can be rapidly released. When criminals are caned, kidney pads are attached to them, they're tied to a trestle, and then they're struck with a hard rod.

Graffiti? Eight strikes. Image
You just vandalized a set of walls and you've been given the choice between two punishments.

First choice: Go to prison for one year.
Second choice: Received 24 hits from the cane.

What do you personally choose?
Which option do you believe that other good people who stupidly got involved in a crime would pick?
Read 5 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Nov 18
Male and female biology PhDs without children are similarly likely to have tenure-track jobs after they receive their PhDs.

Males may get slightly ahead, but not enough to explain the sex gap in tenure🧵 Image
To understand the larger gap in tenure-tracking, we have to look at the group of biology PhDs with children.

For men, their odds of of being in a tenure-track position just keep going up with the years.

For women, their odds plateau after having kids. Image
This comparison is subject to some confounding, but you can nevertheless see that the impact of a child on the gap is timed to when the birth of the child happens, suggesting that it really is a causal impact of having a kid. Image
Read 11 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Nov 13
Trump says his secret weapon in the fight to reform institutions of higher learning (38 USC § 3452(f)) is accreditation

He would actually gain a lot by deploying another weapon. This weapon is no secret to Democrats, but Republicans have only rarely used it

The weapon is data🧵
SFFA v. Harvard was a landmark case by the U.S. Supreme Court, wherein it was found that Harvard had been engaging in racially discriminatory admissions in violation of the law.

Per the court's decision, universities do not have the right to consider race during admissions. Image
SFFA v. Harvard was first filed in 2013 and the case was ultimately decided in 2023.

It took ten full years to decide against Harvard, even though the evidence that they discriminated in favor of Black students was shockingly obvious and insurmountable.Image
Read 18 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Nov 3
ACT scores for 2024 have finally been released!

The picture looks much the same as the one last year🧵 Image
When you rescale these curves by the numbers who took the test, you get this: Image
If you subset to the states where basically all high school students take the test (the "Representative" sample), the picture looks highly similar to the national one: Image
Read 10 tweets

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