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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Nov 18, 2024 • 11 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Russia seems headed towards a February 1917 moment.

1. A kilogram of potatoes in Nov 2024 is 73% more expensive than in Jan 2024.
2. Interest rates reached 21% in Oct 2024
3. Mortgage rates have risen to 28%

1/
 express.co.uk/news/world/197…
The Russian railway system is now falling apart.

It's not one thing, it is everything.

The Western ball bearing were the excuse for the Russian railway system to fire its entire maintenance department in 2013.

2/
 moscowtimes.ru/2024/11/15/rzh…Image
~40% of Russian railway rolling stock is Soviet era vintage.

Russia went to 100% utilization of the Trans-Siberian railway in the late summer of 2021 and has stayed there ever since.

Those rail cars were not well maintained to start with, less Western bearings.

3/
Finnish firms were also hired out to do some of the Russian engine maintenance before Feb 2022.

All of the above ended in April 2022.

This isn't the first time I've mentioned this subject.

4/
Modern railway roller bearings last 2 million kilometers with good rails and reliable preventive maintenance cycles.

That is 108 round trips from Moscow to Vladivostok and back in about 63 months on an 80% usage rate.

5/
The war has lasted 2 years ~9 months with 100% usage since 3rd qtr 2021

Things have gotten so clogged on the east-west pats of the Russian railway system that Russian companies are _Trucking_ railway rolling stock just to have the ability to move
6/
...product by train on other parts of the system.

Half of Russian engines and rolling stock may have burned out their Western bearings by now.

The bill for delayed/deferred maintenance has come due.

Plus, the Chinese rail bearing have far less


7/
...life & require lubrication that Western bearings do not.

The Moscow Times article makes clear that lubricated Chinese bearings are not a real option for Russia as there is also a huge labor shortage for locomotive crews as well as for rolling stock.

Clip H/T @Prune602
8/ Image
The Russian rail system collapse sequence is as follows:

1st trains on remote Russian rail lines derail.

2nd more Russian trains on lines closer to Moscow derail.

3rd the Russian repair trains derail on the way to open derailments.

9/
4th we see triage as the Russian rail system starts collapsing on a LARGE SCALE.

5th, Russian rail transport apocalypse

The Moscow Times article points to Russia closing in on #4.

Clip H/T @Prune602
10/10 Image
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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 23
The Ukrainian language version of this article has a great deal more on the design philosophy behind the FP-5 Flamingo.

A philosophy is utterly alien to the Big/Expensive/Few Western Flag Ranks & Defense contractors.

Production & Systems engineering🧵
1/
"According to Terekh, the design process for the Flamingo was the same as for other products: the rocket went through filters — can we mass-produce it? Will it be cost-effective? Will it be effective on the battlefield?

2/
"You can use anything. The main thing is that it works well on the battlefield, and not that it looks beautiful on paper or in advertising booklets. This is the main criterion."

3/
Read 18 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 23
Ukraine just confirmed my analysis of their FP-5 engine supplies:

"Before the start of mass production, Fire Point bought a large stock of old aircraft engines with a residual life of up to 10 hours.

1/4
They can no longer be used on aircraft, but their operating time is sufficient for the necessary tests after repair and the real flight phase – 3.5 hours.

The purchased engines are being repaired and modified:

2/4
...some of the structural elements are being simplified, and cheaper and easier-to-produce alternatives are being used instead of titanium parts that are resistant to wear. All this is necessary to reduce the cost and speed up the restoration work."

3/4
Read 5 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 19
What most people miss about the Ukrainian oil campaign is that each Russian refinery was built to support certain local & international markets with certain types of crude oil.

This makes the entire Russian energy market "logistically brittle."

Russian Oil Market Logistics🧵
1/
Russia's oil refinery's locations and local/international markets were built by the Soviet Union.

They each were fed specific grades of crude oil, and the Soviet/Russian state railways fuel tank car fleets were scaled for just-in-time deliveries to & from those refineries.

2/
Ukraine's One Way Attack drone strategic bombing campaign hasn't been aimed to simply reduce Russian refinery output.

It was aimed to DESTABILIZE THE ENTIRE RUSSIAN ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN for export, civilian economic and Russian military operations.


3/
Read 10 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 28
Remember all the professionally incompetent yo-yo naval officers & hangers on claiming FPV drones were not a threat to naval warships in 2023 WHEN I TOLD THEM THEY WOULD BE?

Reality just kicked them one and all in the 'nads...

...HARD⬇️

1/2
I told these professionally incompetent US navalists accounts on X/Twitter in 2023 that both containerized drones and FPV drones were a deadly threat to every naval vessel on the water they were ignoring to their crew's peril.

2/
Those professionally incompetent yo-yo US navalists accounts didn't listen because of their Dunning-Kruger group think delusions.

They refused to accept the reality that surprise FPV attacks happen because the enemy always gets a vote...FIRST!

This is where I laugh at them⬇️
3/3
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 23
We need to have a talk about Russian military corruption and its effects on the Russo-Ukrainian War.

It's kind of like these sun-rotted missile truck tires that make my reputation on Twitter.

Corruption happens slowly, then all at once.

Corruption🧵
1/ Image
The Russian Army issued a "live off the land" order in early March 2022 resulted in lots of Russian enlisted stealing outside the line of sight of Russian junior officers.

This hollowed out discipline the RuAF "Professional Volunteers" in early 2022.

2/
Given the visuals of the base level corruption of Russian society in terms of oil income disparity.

A lot of "Russia Strong" yo-yo's just shrug and say, "so what, Russia won wars when it was corrupt."

3/
Read 21 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 21
At a production rate of 100 FP-1 drones a day. Fire Point will make 13,200 FP-1 one way attack (OWA) drone by 1 Jan 2026.

By itself.

Every other Ukrainian OWA drone maker is in addition to that 13,200 number.

1/2
If the FP-1 really is 60% of Ukrainian OWA drone production. (Rather than just recent launches)

0.6 (x) = 13,200
x = 13,200/0.6
x = 22,000

Ukraine is on track to make 22,000 OWA drones in the last 132 days of 2025. 👀


2/
22,000 Ukrainian OWA drones in 132 days certainly is a strategic bombing threat of the first order.

Even if Russia downs 80% of them.

That is 4,400 Ukrainian OWA drone hits in Russia in the next 132 days or 33 and 1/3 precision guided drone hits on Russia per day to 2026.
3/3 Image
Read 4 tweets

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