Thread by @RaduHossu

The Night Summary. Day 999 (18.11.2024 at 03:45 RO/UA time):

The US has lifted restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range missiles, mainly ATACMS. Immediately after the announcement, France and the UK announced the same, and here we are discussing Storm Shadow.

What do these decisions mean and what impact could they have on the war?

I wrote on September 12 about the impact of these capabilities on warfare, when the first serious public discussion of such a thing was first seriously discussed. 🧵👇

2/18 Since you most probably still don't feel like reading two posts this morning, I briefly reiterate here some of the main ideas from then:

- Storm Shadow/Scalp-EG cannot hit the Kerch Bridge.

3/18 The ATACMS missiles that have been delivered to Ukraine are the ones that deliver cluster munitions, they don't have a unitary warhead, so they can't be used against the Kerch Bridge (I bring this up because a lot of people expect this);

- These capabilities, if used intelligently, will put Russian commanders in a dilemma as they will have to make risky decisions, which could lead to increased mismanagement of the conflict;

- (at that time) These capabilities can take out of the "game" quite a lot of airfields,

4/18 command and control centers or logistic centers of the Russian Army on Russian territory;

- They are not wonder weapons, nor will they be game changers, like HIMARS were in August-September 2022. So the impact will be there, but it will be limited;

Since then, a few things have changed and then I have to make some adjustments to my analysis in line with what I perceive to be the current state of affairs:

- This announcement comes far too late and telegraphed.

5/18 That is, more than 2 months after the Russians were practically publicly warned that this announcement was coming. For me personally, knowing this conflict quite well, this announcement does not lift me to the sky. I appreciate it, but that's about it, because...

- ...the impact of this decision will be extremely limited, precisely for the reason described above. the Russians have adapted, many of the command, control, logistic centers have been dispersed beyond the upper range of ATACMS (300 km).

6/18 The bombers launching the devastating attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure have already been moved farther away. Maybe only some Russian attack helicopters may be in danger and maybe there we will see a considerable effect;

- We have to consider the number of missiles available in Ukraine's stockpile. This number cannot be a significant one, especially because Storm Shadow and Scalp-EG were produced in small numbers and as far as I know there is no current production.

7/18 As for ATACMS, even if they exist in considerably larger numbers in US stockpiles, my guess is that few, the old M39A1 (300 km range) and M39 (160 km range), both of which carry cluster munitions, have made it to Ukraine;

- The fact that the US has entered the transition period may affect this decision as well. A Trump transition team blackmailing Ukraine into not using them because "we will cease all aid the moment we come to power" could lead to a "soft" limitation on their use.

8/18 Even if this scenario doesn't happen, after January 2025, we don't know whether the Trump administration will uphold the decision or not;

Conclusion:

This decision is too little and too late for Ukraine and to change the fate of the war.

9/18 For this sane people's wish (that the Russians be defeated soldierily and driven out of Ukraine) to happen much less "spectacular" decisions with much more impact are needed, and that takes some equipment and quantity delivered:

- EW (electronic warfare) systems in significantly larger quantities;
- Tanks and IFVs (Infantry Fighting Vehicles.

10/18 Example Bradley, Marder) in a minimum ratio of 1 (tank) to 2 (IFV), where the minimum number of tanks delivered should be minimum 300;
- Patriot, IRIS-T, NASAMS, HAWK, HAWK, Ghepard air defense systems in a sufficient quantity to cover the need to protect AT LEAST critical civilian infrastructure (energy, road infrastructure, power transmission,

11/18 etc)
- Interceptor missiles in sufficient numbers that the air defense network thus created would be able to withstand Russian-launched choking attacks;
- Funds in the billions of dollars for the purchase of equipment of Ukrainian production (drones in particular, but not only);
- Shells for artillery, small ammunition in the order of millions and tens of millions of pieces;
- Fighter jets in a quantity that can enable Ukraine to deal with Russian aviation in Ukrainian airspace,

12/18 and that means a total of at least 120-150 F-16s or alternatives;

All this would have to happen simultaneously, in a short time (1-2 months) for equipping the brigades that are newly established, to fill the holes in the already veteran brigades that are now drained of equipment, men and tired.

13/18 Such a reality would immediately boost the morale of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and especially of the Ukrainian population, which, you see, would be much more willing to draft and to support the war effort with more energy and would trust that peace negotiations should come only after Ukrainian victories.

14/18 As the list I have set out above will not turn into reality, we need to adjust our expectations of the outcome of this illegal, immoral, unjust, senseless, irrational war and understand that Ukraine, the victim of this war, is fighting a terrorist nation (yes, I used the term nation, not state), which has extremely little respect for the value of human life and thus can afford to continue sending tens and tens of thousands of new Russians to their deaths.

15/18 Ukraine is fighting this terrorist nation, led by a war criminal, with one hand tied behind its back and one eye covered, and its supporters from the sidelines shouting "we will support you to the end", while it is on the ground taking punches in the teeth from an opponent 10 times its size and energy.

Yet Ukraine has been holding out for 999 days in this "3-day war" of Putin and Russia.

16/18 It is holding out even as its infrastructure is being destroyed, its people are being killed, its population is in terror, Russia is trying to destroy its economy, its road, energy and state infrastructure, in order to bring not only the state but also the population to its knees.

And the West is coming to help. Dripping help. So that Ukraine doesn't completely die. As much as it can continue to be a grinder of equipment and Russians. So that (the West) can boast years from now that it (the West) was there when it was needed to defend common values.

17/18 Ukraine heroically resists. The West is pathetically pretending to make a difference. The current decision is beneficial, but far below the full potential it would have had 18 months ago (i.e. before the counter-offensive).

Ukraine is still holding on. All so tired and full of internal problems. It resists and is still an aspirational model for other nations, when we talk about the struggle to preserve identity, sovereignty, universal values.

18/18 To me, those people who are fighting there today and those who have been tirelessly supporting them for 999 days (or 10 years, since the initial invasion) are truly an inspiration!

Slava Ukraini!

P.S. You can find me on the other social network too as we are transitioning from this shit-hole that promotes people who support russian genocidal war against Ukraine. You can find me with the same handle and you can follow me there as I will post there fist and only after, here, at least for a transition period.