❗️WELT: Russia is actively attacking European infrastructure, and, in the opinion of Western intelligence agencies, this is just the beginning – Putin will probably not stop at Ukraine and will try to expand his influence in the Baltic states, where he is currently waging a hybrid war, using cyber attacks, disinformation and sabotage.
According to the publication, the strategy of hybrid warfare includes not only IPSO, but also the financing of pro-Russian political forces in Europe and the disruption of NATO's airspace by Russian jets.
Putin is already waging a shadow war, including against Germany, as a joint investigation by journalists from Welt am Sonntag and Politico shows.
▪️ In an interview with Welt am Sonntag, Thomas Haldenwang, former president of the German Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution claims that spying and sabotage by Moscow has increased in Germany both qualitatively and quantitatively. "We have been seeing aggressive behavior by Russian intelligence services for some time now," he says. In the real world and in cyberspace, Germany is at the center of a hybrid war. "Russia is using the full range of tools: from influencing political discussions and cyberattacks on critical infrastructure to large-scale sabotage and assassinations."
▪️ In this shadow war, mysterious incidents have recently taken place in Bundeswehr barracks. Drone flights over military facilities where Ukrainians are being trained. A planned attack on the head of the German defense company Rheinmetall was thwarted.
▪️ After the war in Ukraine started, Europeans expelled more than 700 Russian agents disguised as diplomats. The services there responded with a creative idea: disposable agents, advertised, for example, in pro-Russian Telegram channels.
These agents are mostly Russian-speaking young people in their 20s and 30s, often with criminal records and a penchant for information technology. Some of them are guided by ideological considerations, while others do it for money received in cryptocurrency.
▪️ The operations of one-off agents are varied. Painting pro-Russian or anti-Western slogans. For such graffiti, they are paid about 50 euros, and sometimes 100 euros for photographs of the object to be spied on. Sometimes Russians recruit people for more complex work. It is said that the package that burned down at Leipzig airport could have been sent by a one-time agent who might not even know that he was planting a bomb.
▪️ Moscow is also doing much to prevent the creation of a planned Bundeswehr brigade in Lithuania. Armored and mechanized infantry battalions of the Bundeswehr have already been stationed there since 2017.
"A lot of fake news is being spread, for example that German soldiers raped women and wanted to occupy Lithuania. Russia wants to sabotage the project," Darius Jauniškis, Director General of the State Security Department of Lithuania, says.
German soldiers and their commanders found out about it again and again. For example, their names appeared in Russian Telegram channels.
▪️ Most German radios are not encrypted, which means radio traffic can be easily jammed, which is what happened during a major NATO exercise in 2022. "Russians entered the radio airwaves," one participant in the exercise said. "Only after changing frequency and pattern did the suspicious-sounding Russian voices gradually disappear and the exercise continued again."
Putin is testing red lines. Germany is not at war with Russia. But Russia is no longer behaving peacefully toward Germany. It is creeping toward the red lines. Testing them. You don't have to be an expert on Putin to see this. He says it all the time in his speeches.
1/4 Putin does not believe in 🇷🇺 victory over Ukraine anymore. But he's not going to give up.
His plan - arms race, another mobilization, war until the last Russian soldier stands.
To Putin any option to return Crimea and Donbas is worse than millions of Russian soldiers dying.
2/4 I see two options of our quick Victory and peace afterwards:
1. Putin's death or his removal from power through a coup d'état within his environment.
Chance of mass uprising in Russia is very small - repressive machine works well, number of people ready to rebel is little.
3/4 2. Rapid offensive of 🇺🇦 Army that will encircle Donetsk agglomeration, sever so-called "corridor to Crimea", taking thousands of Russian soldiers as PoWs.
That would be a decisive loss for the Russian army and 🇷🇺 leadership.
Option 1 is preferable, opt.2 - more likely, IMO.
Dmytro Finashyn, Danylo Melnyk, Andrii Sobkovskyi, wounded 🇺🇦 Army veterans, arrived to the US for the Ukrainian Prayer Breakfast and some other important events.
They were greeted by 🇺🇦 diaspora. During their visit Heroes will share their stories and experiences.
2/8 There is no doubt that this is a carefully planned attack on the colony by 🇷🇺. There are no operational military targets for 🇺🇦 in Olenivka. Moreover, Army has all tools to identify precisely the facilities to be destroyed: ammunition depots, operational states, fuel bases.
3/8 Scale and speed of the information campaign by 🇷🇺 propagandists indicate that this was a precisely planned, organised action. We know that some of captured defenders were transferred to barracks where the hit took place a few days before. Classic, cynical false flag operation
German Chancellor @Bundeskanzler wrote an excellent column that Germany is completely revising its internal and external policies after Russia's full-scale invasion into Ukraine.
Some quotes from that column are in the thread below.
"🇷🇺 missiles have not only caused massive destruction in Kharkiv, Mariupol, Kherson, but shattered European and international peaceful order of the past few decades."
"Letting Putin get away with it would mean that violence can break the law practically without any consequences.
"New reality includes €100 billion special fund for Bundeswehr - the biggest turnaround in security policy in Federal Republic of 🇩🇪's history."
We are supporting 🇺🇦 – will do so for as long as necessary – in economic, humanitarian, financial terms and by delivering weapons"
Top 9 geopolitical defeats for Russia: results as we are almost at 150 days of war
The situation:
On geopolitical stage since February 24, Russia had many reasons to be disappointed. Putin has practically driven himself into a blockade and does not know how to get out of it.
1/9 🇷🇺's closest allies have shown Putin that they are not ready to get involved in a war for his sake. The members of the CSTO, which includes Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, did not want to decide on peacekeeping operations outside their countries.
2/9 Putin's closest friend, Alexander Lukashenko, 🇧🇾 president, has not deployed his troops to 🇺🇦, although he was under enormous pressure from 🇷🇺. Lukashenko understands perfectly well that he will not be able to cope with the consequences in the country.