1/4 Putin does not believe in 🇷🇺 victory over Ukraine anymore. But he's not going to give up.

His plan - arms race, another mobilization, war until the last Russian soldier stands.

To Putin any option to return Crimea and Donbas is worse than millions of Russian soldiers dying. 2/4 I see two options of our quick Victory and peace afterwards:

1. Putin's death or his removal from power through a coup d'état within his environment.

Chance of mass uprising in Russia is very small - repressive machine works well, number of people ready to rebel is little.

Dmytro Finashyn, Danylo Melnyk, Andrii Sobkovskyi, wounded 🇺🇦 Army veterans, arrived to the US for the Ukrainian Prayer Breakfast and some other important events.

They were greeted by 🇺🇦 diaspora. During their visit Heroes will share their stories and experiences.

About them ⬇️ Dmytro Finashyn:

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1588196317523841028?t=fL_mn32uJnZcgsuszl6Y3Q&s=19

Russians who knew too much about Kremlin's finances and military secrets and from Putin's circle are dying en masse in Russia.

Pavel Antonov, richest deputy of 🇷🇺 Duma, died in India on 26th December. He fell out of a hotel's window where he celebrated his birthday. Antonov's companion Vladimir Bidenov was found dead in the same hotel four days prior to Antonov's death.

1/8 Adviser to the Head of the Office of President of Ukraine, @Podolyak_M on Russian inhumane crime:

"Olenivka. Another very cynical provocation by the russian occupation troops since the beginning of the war.

#russiaisateroriststate 2/8 There is no doubt that this is a carefully planned attack on the colony by 🇷🇺. There are no operational military targets for 🇺🇦 in Olenivka. Moreover, Army has all tools to identify precisely the facilities to be destroyed: ammunition depots, operational states, fuel bases.

German Chancellor @Bundeskanzler wrote an excellent column that Germany is completely revising its internal and external policies after Russia's full-scale invasion into Ukraine.

Some quotes from that column are in the thread below.

bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/a… "🇷🇺 missiles have not only caused massive destruction in Kharkiv, Mariupol, Kherson, but shattered European and international peaceful order of the past few decades."

"Letting Putin get away with it would mean that violence can break the law practically without any consequences.

Top 9 geopolitical defeats for Russia: results as we are almost at 150 days of war

The situation:

On geopolitical stage since February 24, Russia had many reasons to be disappointed. Putin has practically driven himself into a blockade and does not know how to get out of it. 1/9 🇷🇺's closest allies have shown Putin that they are not ready to get involved in a war for his sake. The members of the CSTO, which includes Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, did not want to decide on peacekeeping operations outside their countries.

1/4 The deal the EU signed with Azerbaijan has a lot of prospects.

However, I believe there is another possibility that the EU could consider - using gas resources of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Their reserves are very large (Turkmenistan's are 4th largest in the world). 2/4 To make this possible, a Trans-Caspian pipeline linking Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan needs to be built. From there gas can be transported to Europe through already constructed pipelines (that don't involve Russia).

arabnews.com/node/2101491

1/4 Lately there are a lot of articles in different media about war fatigue, uncertain outcomes of war and doubts about the scale of support for Ukraine. E.g.: nyti.ms/3PjQKnE

My thoughts on this: 🔽🔽🔽 2/4 We cannot stop fighting. Russia wants to destroy Ukraine and Ukrainians as it has proved countless times. And Putin will not stop at Ukraine unless he is defeated fully.

Putin is trying to destroy the global security system by invading Ukraine. He must not succeed.

1/4 "What would be the economic impact on Russia if the United States declared Russia a state sponsor of terrorism (SST)? The impact would be significant and could burden the #Russian economy for decades", - @Forbes. forbes.com/sites/stuartan…

#russiaisaterrorisstate 2/4 Adding Russia to the SST list would make its relations with third countries very difficult. These countries would become a target of secondary sanctions unless specific exceptions are made. This will also enhance the effect of sanctions already imposed on Russia.

In his article for @washingtonpost Michael O’Hanlon calls for a talk about compromises with Putin and conceding Ukrainian territories as the only way to stop the war. His whole argument is based on 2 key ideas which are important to address. 1/4
wapo.st/3OWnDq2 1️⃣ – signing a peace agreement with Russia will stop the war.
It will rather give Putin a chance to gather strength for a next attack (not only in Ukraine) and will show other countries that this is a working approach. More wars will follow. 2/4

1/5 Paramedic Yulia "Taira" Payevskaya was helping wounded in #Mariupol when she was captured on 16th March. Two months later she returned to Ukraine. These are some quotes from her interview about her time as a captive👇
#UkraineRussianWar #StandWithUkraine #UkraineUnderAttaсk 2/5 “They treated us horribly. I had nothing all this time. What I had - one pair of underwear, one pair of pants, shoes and some clothes, that's it.
They took the rest from me and didn't allow me any phone connection or medical help”

1/3 One of the most important sanctions against Russia is the ban to ensure and re-ensure 🇷🇺 ships. This makes it much more difficult for Russia to trade by sea - traditionally one of its main export routes. Of course, #Russia is doing all it can to side-step these sanctions. 2/3 Marine insurance is usually done not by single companies but by P&I (Protection and Indemnity) Clubs - associations of marine insurance providers. In a way they are policy makers in this area. They must play the key role here - refuse (or greatly increase) insurance costs.

1/3 Mykola and Liudmyla Mykhailets went to #Kremenchuk mall yesterday to look at blenders when Russian missile hit.
They are now in hospital with multiple wounds. Mykola managed to stay conscious and free his wife from the rubble. They believe themselves to be very lucky. 2/3 Yulia, 22, lived in temporarily occupied Luhansk. She and her mom fled to Kharkiv from the war, and then - to Kremenchuk, looking for more safety. Yulia worked in the mall and was wounded by the rocket strike.

1/3 It is already obvious that war in Ukraine has global repercussions. The consequences of Putin's invasion outside Ukraine - price increases, inflation and stagnation - are already felt by many people in the world. Will they be able to withstand this blackmail? 2/3 The cost of not helping Ukraine would be much higher. If Putin got away with his invasion, he would go further. All global order and international laws would become trash. The words "democracy" and "freedom" would lose their value.

1/3 Weapons provided to Ukraine cover only 10 to 15% of our needs – Denys Sharapov, Deputy Defense Minister and Brig. Gen. Volodymyr Karpenko, Land Forces Logistics Commander at Eurosatory conference in Paris, June 15 (international conference for defense and security). 2/3 Ukrainian weapon needs are defined by the following:
- very long frontlines
- equipment and weapons get destroyed in combat
- high precision and technology weapons help win today's wars

1/3 🇷🇺 propagandist Vladimir Solovyov has just claimed that the number of Ukrainians forcefully deported to 🇷🇺 is 1.9 million, which includes 307 000 children. The UN data is 1230800. In any case, the numbers are striking. #UkraineRussianWar #UkraineUnderAttaсk And he’s calling this “evacuation”. What a maniac. It’s as if someone break into your house, set it on fire, kill you, and then takes your children to his place “for safety”. This must be stopped. #ArmUkraineNow

1/5 A new essay by @BorisJohnson in @thetimes . He lists four main steps that all Ukrainian allies must take immediately to "ensure that Ukraine has the strategic endurance to survive and eventually prevail". 2/5 Ukraine must receive weapons, equipment, ammunition and training - fast.
My comment - allies need to launch weapons and ammunition production at full-speed. Ammunition plants need to be working non-stop so we gain advantage in firepower.

1/6 🇷🇺 reparations to 🇺🇦 are crucial to do justice and rebuild our country after the enormous destruction caused by 🇷🇺 invasion. And although this issue is being actively raised now, still there is no clear roadmap for making this happen. And it’s a problem. 2/6 UK thinktank Ceasefire says neither UN nor international courts would be good for this. UN decisions will be vetoed by 🇷🇺 itself and international courts can’t award reparations soon enough and with the required scope and scale. Changes in legislation would also be needed.

1/4 In order to ease the dependency on Russian fuels, EU has signed an agreement with Israel and Egypt to increase the gas shipment from the Mediterranean region. 2/4 These 2 countries together with Cyprus have about 2 trillion CBM of gas in their fields. And a similar amount will be probably found soon. To compare - last year, the EU bought 155 billion CBM from Russia.

1/4 Latvia reports more than 400 attempts to break the sanctions against #russia and #belarus. Most perpetrators are forging their documentation for their cargo to appear legal, as there are some categories of goods to which the sanctions don’t apply. 2/4 EU claims that control is centered around product codes, but the first list of sanctions contained only product descriptions, not codes. Together with Ministry of Foreign Affairs #Latvia, we have compiled a list of permissible and prohibited codes to optimize the process

1/4 After the russian invasion #oil prices skyrocketed which is very beneficial to oil refinery countries like #India. russia provides them huge discounts, selling oil for 30-35 dollars/barrel (meanwhile on the international market the price is 120 dollars/barrel)
#Banrussianoil 2/4 Most ships delivering oil are #European, #British or #Norwegian - up to 68%. 43% more were of #Greek origin. For ships delivering to India this percentage is even higher - approximately 80 %.