Pavel Slunkin Profile picture
Nov 20, 2024 10 tweets 2 min read Read on X
An alleged audio recording of Lukashenka and Prigozhin (Wagner) during the mutiny in 2023 has surfaced on Russian Telegram. Here is a thread with the transcription of it.
*You can thank me by retweeting it*⬇️ Image
Lukashenka: So, I haven’t spoken with him yet. His entire entourage is in chaos. They’re already pleading with me, asking for help: "Just a little more. Just a little more. Wait a moment. We’re almost there, almost there". You know the situation⤵️
*continues: But our press service made a statement, maybe harmful for us, that I spoke with the president this morning, saying we’ll do everything for a peaceful resolution. I offered to talk to you, to try and negotiate and so on⤵️
*continues: And yes, we held several rounds of talks and came up with a completely acceptable, bloodless solution to the issue. I’m somewhat provoking the Russian side—they might have other options, you know? Like, maybe eliminating Prigozhin. That’s one option. Maybe others.⤵️
Prigozhin reacts: No, eliminating Prigozhin… That would cost so many lives, it would be a disaster ('mama do not cry")!
Lukashenka: Exactly! Exactly! That’s the point! Because, yes, you could eliminate someone, but how many tens of thousands of people would also be killed? Yes, "we can block some bridge, close it, meet... — And so what? At best, it would be the National Guard. But the rest? ⤵️
*continues: The rest - police and mobilized people. They’re untrained people! It would be like 1941. You can’t go down that path. So, in about 15 minutes, Eismant (press-secretary of Lukashenka) is preparing a press release. ⤵️
*continues: I think Putin will support these proposals. But if this is a better option for you in this situation, we can just follow our plan: to come to Belarus, settle on our training grounds. ⤵️
*continues: I’ll say we had agreements for combat coordination, for rest, and so on. And I’ll express my discontent to Putin (will express my "fe!").

Prigozhin: And you’ll get money from him for the expenses, right?⤵️
Lukashenka: Listen, we’ll figure it out, even if he loses his mind and doesn’t give the money... we will find...

Prigozhin (joking): Let the Poles pay, so we don’t go after them!

Lukashenka: Maybe that too (jokiing). We’ll sort it out. There’s a problem, but it’s a small one.

• • •

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More from @PavelSlunkin

Dec 5, 2024
The world has reached its most dangerous point for democracies in decades. What seemed impossible yesterday is now becoming the new normal today. If liberal democracies don’t unite for self-preservation, they risk disappearing sooner than we imagine.
Short and scary 🧵 below Image
France and Germany are on the brink of far-right parties taking power.
The U.S. is growing skeptical of traditional democratic standards/practices domestically and its role in protecting NATO allies and democratic movements abroad.
The EU’s efficiency is hindered by a growing bloc of autocratic-leaning leaders in Hungary, Slovakia, and likely Romania soon.
South Korea has shown how fragile even stable democracies can be.
Read 7 tweets
Aug 25, 2023
@TheStudyofWar has recently published their analytical assessment of what happened to Prigozhin and what it means for Belarus and Lukashenka.

ISW is a popular and often quoted resource, but their analysis of Belarus raises too many questions. So let's dig in
According to ISW (quotes from the Russian Offensive Campaign assesment, August 24, 2023):
1. "Lukashenka will likely remain silent on the matter to avoid provoking Putin and further risking his already vulnerable position"

understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…
Image
2. "Prigozhin’s assassination has likely signaled to Lukashenko both a dramatic reduction of his negotiating space with the Kremlin and an implicit threat against his continued attempts to resist Union State integration efforts".
Read 21 tweets
Jul 24, 2023
Many rumors surrounding the sudden disappearance of the Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang. Of course, I don't know where he is or what is happening to him.
Instead I will share my impressions of our meeting and working together in 2015. Image
He then headed the Protocol Department of the Foreign Ministry and came to Belarus as part of a delegation led by Xi Jinping. You can spot him in this picrure. Or us both in this video https://t.co/iQmQgMSYlD
Image
Let me start by saying that the Chinese protocol is a huge machine that employs hundreds of diplomats. The entire Protocol department of Belarus then consisted of 11 people. This is also the reason why a young dilomat like me had a chance to work with Qin Gang and other CH VIPs.
Read 17 tweets
Jul 21, 2023
Wild examples of RU propaganda narratives are often published here. But you have never seen quotes from the Belarusian TV.
This is unfair. RU propagandists look like sweet summer children against the backdrop of their BY colleagues.
A thread with translated quotes from the video
This is Aliaksandr Lukashenka's favorite "journalist" - Grigory Azarenok. He works in Lukashenka's pool, follows him everywhere and even received a Wagner sledgehammer as a gift from him. Mr Azarenok is a laureate of Belarusian state awards in the field of journalism. Image
I am quoting from his author's program "The secret springs of politics", which is broadcast on the main TV channel of Minsk:

"The European Parliament, a bunch of talking shit, issued a resolution! They accuse us of stealing children! They want to arrest us!"
Read 9 tweets
Jul 5, 2023
I know that many journalists and editors-in-chief follow me here. This short thread is for you.

Please remember that when you call Alexander Lukashenko the “President of Belarus” this is neither true, nor correct. And this misleads your reader. Some facts further…
This is not my personal view or analytical assessment, but an official position of dozens of states. After rigged elections in 2020 the EU, its member states, USA, UK, Canada, NZ, Ukraine and many many other countries don’t recognize him as the legitimate president of Belarus

Since then no Ambassador of these states has presented credentials to Lukashenko so as not to recognize his legitimacy or call him president in official documents
Read 10 tweets
Feb 11, 2023
Exactly 8 years ago today Putin, Merkel, Hollande and Poroshenko met in Minsk's Palace of Independence to negotiate ceasefire and peace in Ukraine after Russia's invasion in 2014.
I was BY diplomat then and worked with the UA delegation. Here is my thread about that night. Image
Let's first add some context here. The Normandy format meeting in Minsk attracted enormous attention to Belarus that was gradually getting out of international isolation and surpisingly took a rather neutral stance on the war.
Lukashenka didn't recognise the annexation of Crimea and cautiously stood up for the territorial integrity of Ukraine. This let him present Belarus as a relatively neutral country that can suit for negotiations purposes.
Read 21 tweets

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