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Jacob Rubashkin Profile picture
@JacobRubashkin
Nov 21 • 2 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Republican Nick Begich has won Alaska’s House seat after the ranked choice voting instant runoff tabulation.

He defeats Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola. Image
Begich won 51.31 - 48.69 % after votes from the third and fourth place finishers were reallocated or exhausted. Image

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More from @JacobRubashkin

Jacob Rubashkin Profile picture
Jul 24
The Kamala switch has been good for shady PACs that appear superficially legit but have identical fake fundraising appeals, matching public interfaces, and a pattern of spending nearly all their money on fundraising.

Gotten texts from all these and more over past 48 hours.


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Several of these generic sounding PACs share the same treasurers and addresses. As a reminder, seeing “700% match” or “300x” or whatever is almost certainly fake, that’s not how campaign finance works.
Like, "Democrats United" raised $2.8m, almost all from small dollar donors, and has spent $2.1m - basically all of it on text messaging and list acquisition. Nothing to candidates. You are essentially giving money so they can text you again.

opensecrets.org/political-acti…
Read 6 tweets
Jacob Rubashkin Profile picture
Feb 26, 2023
This Fox News poll has a ton of interesting information, including a GOP primary poll that underscores the difficulty and opportunity of beating Trump. At 43% he’s not invincible but that’s almost exactly what he won in 2016.

2/19-22, RVs, live caller static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/co…
Just against Haley, Trump gets 66 percent, so that’s a good indicator of his ceiling. As long as someone else is in the race, a quarter of the primary electorate will choose that person over Trump.
They may not like each other, but Trump voters seem to like DeSantis and DeSantis voters are alright with Trump.
Read 4 tweets
Jacob Rubashkin Profile picture
Nov 15, 2022
In the closing months of the campaign, DCCC/HMP spent $2.7m to defend Stanton in his Biden+10 seat (he won by 12) and $1.8m to defend O’Halleran in his Trump+8 seat (he lost by 8). But they spent just $1.1m vs. AZ1 and $0 in AZ6, two races won by Rs by a combined 6,511 votes.
^this is TV dollars, data from Kantar/CMAG.

Shows on the party’s priorities, incumbent protection and wave protection ranked higher than winning marginal open/challenger seats. The correct strategy to shore up against a red wave, but comes up short in a different environment.
Some of the post-2022 vibes feel a lot like post-2020 vibes when Republicans were sitting around going “Why did we spend $2 million shoring up French Hill (won by 10) and $0 against Lauren Underwood (won by 1)?”
Read 5 tweets
Jacob Rubashkin Profile picture
Nov 10, 2022
Morning majority math:

Beginning with our new baseline of R218-D197 (assuming both parties win outstanding seats they're favored in), we can add in the 12 toss-ups called for Ds and the 3 toss-up races called for Rs. That gets us to R221-D209.

Add CO-8 win for Dems: R220-D210. Image
Picking up CO-8, a Tilt Republican seat, was crucial for Dems. But it's not sufficient. They still need 8 more seats.

Let's break them down. First the 5 outsanding toss-ups:
WA8, OR6 (Dems lead but vote still out)
CA13/22 (gotta wait for mail)
NY22 (looking rough) Image
If Dems win all those but NY22, we get to 221R-214D. So Democrats still need to flip 4 seats GOP is still favored in.

Where might they find them?
CO3, where Boebert trails by 64 votes
OR5, where JMS trails but Clackamas County votes still out there
WA3, where Perez leads
Read 6 tweets
Jacob Rubashkin Profile picture
Nov 9, 2022
Some preliminary Dem majority math using final IE ratings. These have held up pretty well, and the math here relies on that continuing and Ds & Rs win the remainder of races they were favored in.

Ratings had Ds favored in 199 seats, Rs favored in 216. 20 Toss-ups. Follow along: Image
So far, the only upsets have been in NY3/4, Tilt D races won by Rs.

Accounting for those two races, our initial baseline is adjusted to 218R-197D.

Of the 20 toss-ups, 13 have been called, splitting 10D-3R.

So we adjust further to 221R-207D. Image
Of the remaining 7 toss-ups, Dems currently lead in at least 4 (CT5, NM2, OR6, WA8).

If we allocate those to Dems, we get 221R-211D.

If Dems lose everything else, that's how we get an R+11 upper bound result from the current 222D-213R breakdown in the chamber. Image
Read 6 tweets
Jacob Rubashkin Profile picture
Nov 9, 2022
In Georgia's Glynn County, we've got all precincts reporting. Herschel Walker leads by 27 points. In the 2021 special election, Kelly Loeffler beat Raphael Warnock... by 26 points. It's tight!
Oconee County, all precincts reporting, Herschel Walker leads by 35 points, 66-31. Kelly Loeffler won... by 36 points, 68-32 points.

Total votes 2021: 23,537
Total votes 2022: 22,276

Warnock won statewide by 2 points in 2021. It's tight!
In Union County in North Georgia, Walker is winning by 60 points, 78-18 percent, with all precincts reporting (total votes: 14,180)

In 2021, Kelly Loeffler won 82-18 percent (total votes: 14,167).
Read 4 tweets

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