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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Nov 21 • 8 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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This act of cost-ineffective public theater by Putin is his going away present to the Western escalation managers they so desperately need to justify their failed retread of appeasement policy jobs

The cost of an IRBM/ICBM is around 10-20 times the cost of an ALCM/GLCM/SLCM
1/
...for about the same payload, with the several hundred meter CEP accuracy of a daylight of February 1945 B-17 raid.

The Putin regime put out propaganda yesterday about using the RS-26 Rubezh, a SS-20 SABER lookalike, to scare Western policy makers⬇️

2/
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It is unlikely the Putin Regime has a significant warstock of such missiles, & every RS-26 Russia fires reduces the nuclear threat to the USA.

It is military madness...but it's great for impressing dullards in media and politics like @JakeSullivan46, German Chancellor Scholz
3/
...and Western corporate media reporters talking to the arms control community at the US State Department, which are trying to keep their now excess to US Federal government needs phony baloney jobs.🙄

4/
The cost of this attack to Russia is similar to a Pershing II during the 1980s, which was around $10million USD per round.

In real 2024 dollar terms an RS-26 would cost about the same, which accounting for inflation, is more like $20M USD now.
5/
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All that cost to deliver six inaccurate conventional MIRV submunitions.

This is about terror & makes no military sense.

The sole purpose is to scare @JakeSullivan46 and maybe those in Trump's entourage who claim to be scared of a nuclear war.🤦‍♂️


6/
Let's be honest here...

...by any military standard you care to measure...

...this ICBM launch was a political desperation move by the Putin Regime aimed at Western political idiots.

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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Dec 8
I've been thinking on what is going on to reduce Russia VKS glide bomb attacks as shown

There are many possible reasons.

Fewer Russian glide bomb drops 🧵
1/
My first thought was to wonder if:

"Are we seeing Russian supply chain problems across its PGM production base due to foreign exchange shortages?"

Russia's Shaheed clones have new and inferior Chinese servo motors.⬇️
2/
I asked around and I was pointed to Ukrainian GNSS (AKA global positioning satellite signals) Spoofing as a more likely cause of the Shaheed-136 clone failures.

Also, that would have nothing with reduced glide bomb drops.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Dec 7
In another round of very useful translation, @sambendett points out the Russians have learned that drones are how combat power is measured in the 21st century.

The Russians didn't share drone tech with the SAA at scale.

Ukraine did with the HTS starting in June 2024.
1/
So the Assad regime fell.

Had Russia sent it's 'troublesome' drone units to Syria, rather than in meat grinder infantry assaults. Things might have turned out differently.

Dmitry "Goodwin" Lysakovsky was a legendary Russian extremist who became a drone
2/
...operator in the DPR army and stayed when it became Russian. 

"Goodwin" ran cross ways of his regimental commander for calling him out for dealing drugs to his own troops on social media.
3/
Read 5 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Dec 7
The Russian use of FPV's to kill Ukrainian boat drones was well established six months ago.

1/
Ukraine gave the Russian navy some really big reasons to go there dating to that time.

Boat-Drones toting large heat seeking missiles to kill helicopters.

2/
That reason is why Russian naval helicopters have been carrying large numbers of FPV's since September 2024.

Why Western Navies have ignored these trends is a very good question for various Western governments.🤔

3/
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Dec 7
Mud season is over in Kursk.

Mobik frostbite & trench foot season is here, like has been blindingly obvious for the entire war.

Frostbite & Trench Foot 🧵

1/
The lack of Russian winter uniforms and waterproof winter boots in the "Professional" Russian Army was endemic in the winter of 2021-to-2022.

2/
The Wagner merc & Mobik filled winter of 2022-to-2023 was worse.

3/
Read 9 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Dec 5
While these bases in Syria are a top Russian logistical priority, per the 🧵below.

The issue is the Russian version of the West's expeditionary warfare model is failing in the age of drones.

1/
Ukraine's HUR has had a drone warfare presence in Syria since June 2024 per Business Insider.

HUR spent that time teaching Syrian opposition militia how to do AFU style drone warfare.

Short form - The Syrian opposition has organic drone airpower.

2/
I've beaten on the drum for literally years about how Western analysts and the DC military-industrial complex types in particular don't understand small/cheap drones because it is against their interest to do so.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 30
Pro-Russian/Pro-Syrian accounts on X seem to be a little behind on battlefield developments in Syria.

Assad SAA forces cannot be holding a defense line at Hama, if large columns of Syrian opposition forces have passed through Hama on the way to Homs.🙄

1/3
The reported mutiny of the 47th Brigade of the 11th SAA Division near Hama is playing a large role in this development.⬇️

Syrian opposition offensive is beginning to look a lot like the fall of the Republic of South Vietnam in 1975.

2/3
I've got some popcorn ready for the "VKS evacuation helicopters off of the Russian embassy in Damascus" moment.

Something like this Saigon 1975 photo with an Mi-17 in the starring role.

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Read 4 tweets

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